Truckload PPI up 17.9% as driver crackdown reshapes 2027 bids

US producer prices for long-distance truckload freight rose 4.6% in September from August and 17.9% from a year earlier, to 219.4, a 52-week high for the BLS series¹. The reading lands as carriers open 2027 bids with capacity still leaving the market^6, 3, 7.

DAT's September data show where the increase sat. The national average dry van contract rate was $3.24 a mile, up 13 cents on August and 82 cents on September 2025². The contract linehaul rate, which excludes fuel, fell 1 cent to $2.40². The estimated van fuel surcharge rose 14 cents to a record 84 cents a mile².

All-in rates rise while linehaul stalls

Spot dry van averaged $3.01 a mile in September, up 12 cents on August and 96 cents on a year earlier, but its linehaul portion fell 2 cents to $2.17². DAT's dry van Truckload Volume Index was 252, down 1% from August and 1% from a year earlier². Dean Croke, DAT's principal industry analyst, said rates usually take three to four weeks to catch up with rising diesel prices².

That mix points to supply, not demand. SONAR's Contract Rate Change Direction index, which tracks the average change when an existing contract resets, stood at 13.11% on October 22, against 3.53% a year earlier⁸. Tender rejections, the share of loads carriers decline, averaged close to 13% over the past few months, against under 6% a year earlier as the market entered peak season^8, 9.

The driver rule that outlasts politics

FMCSA's final rule on non-domiciled commercial driver's licences, published in February, took effect on March 16³. States issue those credentials, and several have stopped. Louisiana ended issuance on October 2, 2025, and Wyoming stopped in September 2025⁴. Ohio said on October 23 it will close its programme after downgrading about 2,000 of 5,000 reviewed licences, with the remaining 3,000 to follow⁴.

FreightWaves founder and CEO Craig Fuller told Optym's Convergence 2026 conference on November 2 that the largest fleets, the American Trucking Associations and the Truckload Carriers Association want the tighter standards³. He said a change of administration will not undo them³. He said in a November 2025 debate that the interim rule could remove 5% to 7% of drivers³.

Carriers say hiring is hard. Knight-Swift said "sourcing quality drivers is as challenging as it has been in years"⁷. Chief executive Adam Miller said on October 27 that 2027 contract rates would rise by no less than the mid-teens, a forecast rather than a signed rate¹⁰. Broker capacity is also being filtered. After the Supreme Court's May 14 ruling in Montgomery v. Caribe Transport II, brokers face state negligent-hiring claims, and a Dallas jury's $604 million verdict against C.H. Robinson is under appeal³.

Diesel taxes come back

Georgia's diesel tax of 37.3 cents a gallon and North Carolina's 41 cents are suspended until November 30⁵. Ohio has cut diesel and gasoline taxes to $0.0001 a gallon until January 2, against a standard 47 cents a gallon on diesel⁵. The levies return when the holidays lapse⁵.

Diesel has eased slightly. The EIA national average on-highway price was $6.292 a gallon on November 2, down 0.9% on the week¹¹. It was up 69.2% from a year earlier and 79.8% higher than at the start of the year¹¹. Werner said its truckload fuel surcharges run on a one-week lag, so lower diesel becomes an earnings tailwind only after a delay¹².

What 2027 bids look like

Werner expects about 60% of its one-way revenue book to renew in the first half of 2027, and management is looking for double-digit increases on many of those renewals¹². Knight-Swift said shippers and carriers are turning to mini-bids, quick re-bids of individual lanes¹⁰. Some analysts question whether tightening capacity can sustain a recovery into 2027, JOC reported on November 6⁶.

Not every carrier has healed: Pamt reported a net loss of $8.1 million and a 109.1% operating ratio in its truckload unit, its 12th straight operating loss¹³. Watch whether linehaul, not only fuel, starts rising^1, 2.