Brent crude futures rose 2.1% to $117.19 a barrel in early trading on Friday 30 October, the 09:45 GMT reading1. Reports that the top US commander in the Middle East had briefed President Donald Trump on military options against Iran drove the gain. The contract touched $117.84, its highest since late April1. US West Texas Intermediate gained 1.8% to $103.881.
The Wall Street Journal reported that Central Command chief Admiral Brad Cooper briefed Trump at the White House on Thursday. The meeting, also attended by Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth, covered the US blockade and the possibility of renewed major combat operations1. Trump said on Wednesday that "anything's possible" when asked whether he planned more attacks, and has signalled that strikes could follow the 3 November midterm elections1.
Shipping risk rose at the same time. The Panama-flagged tanker Louise 1 caught fire in the Strait of Hormuz late on 29 October after attackers in a small boat fixed explosives to its hull7. Saudi air defences intercepted a ballistic missile fired towards the Eastern Province on Thursday1.
The relief lasted a day
On Thursday morning the market moved the other way. At 10 a.m. New York time, Brent was down 2.1% at $109.26 and WTI down 2.3% at $100.46, as traders weighed diplomatic efforts8.
The two Brent prints are not comparable. The $109.26 was an intraday snapshot, while Friday's 2.1% gain is measured from Thursday's settlement. Neither report named a contract month8, 1. The last clear settlement in the record is 26 October, when ICE December Brent closed at $115.81 and NYMEX December WTI at $101.769.
Spot and futures also diverge. EIA spot Brent was $123.10 on 27 October, down 3.9% on the day but 6.8% higher than a week earlier10. Executives told The Economic Times that physical crude trades about $20 a barrel above the Brent futures price of $1156. A buyer pricing off a futures screen is not seeing the delivered number.
India's crude bill is already 46% higher
India imports more than 85% of its crude2. Its crude import bill for April to September was $90.6 billion, up 46.3%. September alone cost $15.4 billion, up 46.6%, Petroleum Planning and Analysis Cell data show2. The Indian basket averaged $120.46 a barrel in October to 26 October, the highest in 14 years3.
ICRA estimates that a $10 a barrel rise in the year's average price adds $12 billion to $13 billion to net oil imports. It also widens the current account deficit by 0.3% of GDP3. The report says each $1 a barrel adds up to $2 billion a year2. The rupee was at 95.27 to the dollar on 29 October11.
Freight sits on top. A tanker now charges $10 to $11 a barrel from the Gulf to Indian ports, against $1 to $1.5 before the war. A US cargo costs $20 to $25, against $3 to $3.56. The IEA said the Gulf to Asia rate topped $37 a barrel in mid-October, more than five times its level before the war6. In September, an earlier surge in delivered crude costs pushed Asian refiners processing Middle East crude into negative margins, the agency said6.
Diesel goes out while India pays less at the pump
Indian refiners exported 2.90 million tonnes of diesel in October, or 700,000 barrels a day. That was up from 620,000 b/d in September and the highest in 12 months, according to Kpler data4. The IEA says global diesel and gasoil availability was 1.5 million b/d lower year on year in the second quarter and 1.7 million b/d lower in the third4.
Domestic buyers have been shielded so far because prices have not fully caught up. Kpler expects Indian diesel demand to grow about 90,000 b/d in 2026, helped by "incomplete retail price pass-through, which has shielded consumers from much of the increase in international fuel costs"5. The three state refiners carry LPG under-recoveries of about ₹62,000 crore3. About 90% of India's LPG imports arrive through Hormuz. LPG demand is likely to fall by about 100,000 b/d in 2026, Kpler said, and deliveries were rationed after the strait closed5.
Bunker and surcharge costs follow crude with a lag. VLSFO in Busan has risen about $100 a tonne since early October to roughly $1,06912. Singapore VLSFO lead times start at 13 days, and some suppliers ask for more than three weeks12. IndiGo's fuel bill rose 67.2% to ₹9,967 crore last quarter, and chief executive Willie Walsh said the airline expects to recover only about 60% of the increase through fares and surcharges13.
What buyers can do with this
Change what you quote. Indian state refiners are increasingly seeking crude on a delivered, or CIF, basis, so that sellers cover freight and insurance costs, petroleum ministry officials and refiners told Platts9. HPCL's chairman said on an investor call that the refiner was looking at buying crude on a landed basis, and that it no longer relies on a fixed 50-50 split between term and spot purchases9.
Ask suppliers to separate crude, freight, war risk and bunker in any offer, and to name the contract month and pricing basis. Physical crude is running well above futures6, while futures carry the headline1.
Do not assume freight relief lasts. VLCC rates from the US Gulf and West Africa have fallen 27% and 32% over the past two weeks from historical peaks. Vortexa expects a floor rather than a return to pre-war levels, because loading delays around Hormuz persist14. Book bunkers early where lead times are long12. For fuel clauses, assume only partial pass-through, as Kpler and IndiGo both describe5, 13.
What to watch
The US midterms on 3 November, and any strike decision after them1. Iran's Persian Gulf Strait Authority says it will take legal action from 1 November against vessels of Sinokor, which carried nearly 40% of the crude that left Hormuz last month15. Attacks on Saudi energy infrastructure1. Stock releases coordinated by the IEA, which said on 15 October that they would surpass the 400 million barrels agreed in March16. US commercial crude stocks, which fell 1.9 million barrels to 410.6 million in the week to 23 October1.