Brent futures fell $9.27, or 8.9%, to $94.29 a barrel at 11:58 a.m. ET on 4 November, the lowest since 4 September, Reuters reported1. US West Texas Intermediate dropped $7.44, or 7.8%, to $88.541. An updated Transport Topics report put Brent 9.2% lower at $94.116. Both are intraday prices, not settlements.
The move built through the session. At 01:57 ET Brent futures were up 0.6% at $104.20, with WTI up 0.5% at $96.597. Bloomberg later had Brent almost 2% lower at $101.70, before the heavier selling8.
Two things drove the slide. Democrats won control of the House and Senate, and President Donald Trump told the Financial Times the US had no immediate plans to strike Iran1. Gulf exports were also recovering. Vortexa put them at 17.1 million barrels a day in October, down from 18.9 million in September but about three-quarters of pre-war levels1.
| Item | Latest | Date | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brent front month (intraday) | $94.29/bbl | 4 Nov | down $9.27, down 8.9%1 |
| WTI front month (intraday) | $88.54/bbl | 4 Nov | down 7.8%1 |
| Brent spot (EIA) | $107.03/bbl | 3 Nov | up 62.7% year on year9 |
| Singapore VLSFO | $1,003.50/mt | 2 Nov | down $16.00 on the day2 |
| Rotterdam VLSFO | $763.50/mt | 2 Nov | down $31.00 on the day2 |
| MABUX VLSFO index | $913.07/mt | end October | up $70.81 in October3 |
| US on-highway diesel | $6.292/gal | 2 Nov | up 79.8% this year4 |
| Far East to North America air | $7.76/kg | reported 4 Nov | up 9% in a week10 |
| Asia to US west coast box | $8,300/FEU | 4 Nov | near September level5 |
| Asia to US east coast box | $9,900/FEU | 4 Nov | down 6% in a week5 |
| TD3C VLCC, Middle East Gulf to China | WS1262.5 | 1 Nov | up 48 points11 |
The barrel is still expensive, and the fuel line more so
Crude has given back a week of gains, not a year of them. EIA spot Brent was $107.03 on 3 November, against $123.10 on 27 October, but still 62.7% above a year earlier9. It is up 74.5% since the start of 2026, and its 52-week high was $138.21 on 7 April9.
Marine fuel has barely started to follow. Ship and Bunker indications dated 2 November put Singapore VLSFO at $1,003.50 a tonne, down $16.00 on the day, and Rotterdam VLSFO at $763.50, down $31.002.
Monthly averages point the other way. MABUX's VLSFO index rose $70.81 in October to $913.07 a tonne, and its MGO LS index edged up $2.62 to $1,524.503. MABUX expects the bunker market to stay firm and highly volatile in November, with supply constraints outweighing weaker demand3.
Carriers are still repricing fuel upwards. Swire Shipping will raise its Emergency Bunker Surcharge to $1,070 per 40-foot container for bills of lading dated 15 November or later12. The charge applies on top of its existing March and first-quarter 2026 bunker adjustment factor12.
Hapag-Lloyd's Italy inland fuel floater changed on 2 November, cutting truck transport to 15% from 16% while raising rail only to 7% from zero13.
Reset dates matter as much as index levels. One carrier-side account describes shippers rushing cargo before a 1 July bunker adjustment factor reset, a single annual date that would miss a November move14.
Diesel and air fuel are stickier than crude
Road fuel has its own floor. US on-highway diesel was $6.292 a gallon on 2 November, down 0.9% in a week but 79.8% above the start of the year4. The 52-week high was $6.529 on 21 September4.
Diesel set records above $6.50 a gallon during the Middle East disruption. The Energy Department is now lending 300,000 barrels of fuel oil from the Northeast Home Heating Oil Reserve, with deliveries due by 6 November15.
GasBuddy analyst Patrick De Haan said on 4 November that diesel could fall below $6 by Thanksgiving. That is a forecast, not a market price6.
Air cargo has repriced faster than either. Freightos put Far East to North America air rates at $7.76 a kg last week. That is up 9% in a week and 40% above a year earlier, close to the 2025 peak of $8.00 a kg10. Asia to Europe air was 11% higher year on year at $4.39 a kg10.
Freight is not falling with the barrel
Container rates are holding. Freightos pegged Asia to the US East Coast at about $9,900 per FEU, down 6% in a week, and the West Coast near $8,300 per FEU5. Carriers want general rate increases of $2,000 to $3,000 per FEU on transpacific lanes from the start of November10. Rates had not moved in the first days of the month, and Linerlytica called the 1 November Asia to Northern Europe increase "effectively doomed"5.
Tanker freight is the clearest counterweight. The Baltic Exchange's TD3C route covers 270,000 tonnes from the Middle East Gulf to China. It rose 48 points to WS1262.5 in the report published on 1 November, a round-trip equivalent of $1,345,710 a day11. Breakwave said VLCC rates stayed strong on low vessel availability and geopolitics16.
What would put the premium back
The war premium is coming off on politics, not on a settlement, and the physical risk is unchanged. Iran's Revolutionary Guards said on 4 November that four tankers were destroyed after hitting mines south of Hormuz17. Seatrade counted a strike on a VLCC engine room in Omani waters as the fifth confirmed attack in the first three days of November18.
Yemen's Houthis said they targeted King Khalid International Airport in Riyadh, with no confirmation from Saudi authorities1.
Diplomacy is live but thin. Qatar has stepped up mediation, and Qatari officials expect feedback from both sides on new proposals within a day or so, Bloomberg reported8. A senior Iranian official told Reuters the two countries remain far from a deal1.
Trump said: "I'm ready, we're ready. We're locked and loaded if we need to go, but there may be no reason for it"8.