The US Treasury Secretary, Scott Bessent, and the US Trade Representative, Jamieson Greer, told Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng on 6 November that Beijing must implement the Busan trade agreement immediately1. Their call focused on farm purchases and on rare earths and other critical minerals1.
Xinhua reported that China raised "serious concern" about recent US trade restrictions, and that the two sides agreed to keep using consultation for what it called "stable and positive" trade ties1.
The call put a deadline back in view. The Busan agreement, reached in October 2025, expires on 10 January1. It caps the US tariffs imposed on Chinese goods during Trump's second term at about 20%. China also pledged to buy 25 million metric tons of US soybeans for the next three years, plus US$17 billion more in other farm goods1.
Trump and Xi are expected to meet at the APEC summit in Shenzhen on 18 and 19 November1. They are expected to meet again at the G20 summit in Miami on 14 and 15 December1.
What runs out in January
The Busan package was reciprocal. The US suspended tariff increases and China suspended its rare earth export restrictions, both for one year4. A separate arrangement covers shipping. USTR proposed extending its suspension of Section 301 port fees on China-linked vessels2. The extension would run from 10 November 2026 through 9 January 2027, and the underlying measures stay in place2. The fees would take effect on 9 January if no other agreement is reached5.
The USTR statement on the call did not mention an extension of the truce1. Beijing has tied farm buying to the tariff side: the commerce ministry said China was open to buying more US farm goods, but only if both sides implement their reciprocal tariff-cut agreement1. A $60 billion package of reciprocal tariff cuts, floated after the September summit in Washington, has not been finalised1.
The farm side has its own gap. Beijing also agreed in May to buy $17 billion of US farm goods a year from 2026, the White House said, with the 2026 target adjusted on a prorated basis1.
Rare earths: controls, not just tariffs
US officials have repeatedly said US companies cannot get sufficient quantities of rare earths and critical minerals under the deal1. China has relaxed some controls since last year but keeps many others in place6.
The minerals relief has the same clock as the tariffs. A UK parliamentary committee said the one-year reprieve on Chinese rare earth export restrictions that Trump won in October last year was extended to January 2027 after Xi's visit to Washington7. The committee also heard that the bottleneck is processing, with China dominating refining of seven categories of minerals, including rare earths7.
The International Energy Agency has estimated that blocking US and European access to rare earth magnets could cost those economies about $1.5tn a year6.
What the rest of the world can supply
MP Materials, the US producer, reported NdPr output of 1,018 metric tons for the third quarter, up 41% from a year earlier3. Sales reached 1,020 metric tons at a realised price of about $100 per kilogram3. It began commercial separation of dysprosium and terbium this quarter and sold heavy rare earth inventory to a US aerospace and defence customer for $31.6 million3.
Magnets are the slower part. MP will start shipping saleable magnets to General Motors this quarter and to Apple in 2027, while its 10X magnet plant is due for commissioning in late 20283. In Brazil, the only commercially operating rare earth mine, Serra Verde, is not expected to reach full capacity until the end of next year8.
Politics and the next decision points
Congress adds a second layer of uncertainty. Democrats won both chambers on 3 November and could pursue oversight of the administration's critical minerals deals, and may advance legislation to limit presidential tariff authority, Platts reported9. A presidential veto and the two-thirds majority needed to override it limit that route. "Getting rid of the existing tariffs is going to be an uphill push," said Josh Zive of Bracewell9.
For buyers, the practical question is whether either government acts before January. The Treasury said the United States will "closely assess China's implementation of the arrangement"1. The two expected leaders' meetings, in Shenzhen on 18 and 19 November and in Miami on 14 and 15 December, are the next chances to change the calendar1.