Supply ChainAnalysis

Class 8 orders fall 36% as parts shortages and EPA uncertainty cloud 2027

Class 8 orders fell 36% in October as Daimler, Paccar and Traton report parts shortages. Fleets may enter 2027 with less new equipment than rates suggest.

By Procupy News DeskPublished 8 Nov 2026, 1:30 PM IST5 min readSource: US Bureau of Labor Statistics via FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

In 60 words

North American Class 8 truck orders fell 36% year on year in October to 15,600 units, FTR said, as the 2027 emissions pre-buy ended. Daimler, Paccar and Traton all reported supplier constraints; Daimler cited axles and engines, and Daimler and Paccar fell short of planned third-quarter output. Volvo limited 2027 slots over EPA uncertainty. Less new equipment could keep 2027 capacity tight.

Key points

FTR put October preliminary Class 8 net orders at 15,600 units, down 36% year on year and nearly 50% below the 10-year October average¹.
Daimler Truck North America assembled fewer trucks than planned in Q3 on axle and engine shortages, and expects the same in Q4².
Paccar and Traton also reported supplier limits, while Volvo rationed 2027 order slots over EPA uncertainty, so new trucks may arrive later^3, 4, 5.
Used Class 8 retail prices were up 11.5% year on year in September, and truckload contract renewals are averaging about 13% higher^6, 7.

North American Class 8 truck orders fell 36% year on year in October, FTR Transportation Intelligence said, a weak start to the 2027 order season¹. In the same weeks, Daimler Truck, Paccar and Traton all said supplier constraints were limiting output^2, 3, 4. Volvo capped how far into 2027 it would accept orders, citing EPA uncertainty⁵. The signals point the same way: less new hauling capacity may reach fleets in 2027 than the year's strong order total suggests^1, 2.

October orders missed by a wide margin

FTR put preliminary October net orders at 15,600 units, down 24% from September and 36% below October 2025¹. That was nearly 50% below the 10-year October average of 31,089 units¹. Year-to-date orders still total 278,201 units, up 74% on the same period of 2025, because fleets bought heavily earlier in the year¹. September and October together came to 36,002 units, down 20% year on year¹.

Dan Moyer, FTR's senior commercial vehicle analyst, said the earlier wave of buying ahead of the 2027 emissions rules has run its course¹. He said strong rates have come with high fuel, insurance and labour costs¹. FTR also said some orders may be deferred rather than cancelled¹.

The trackers disagree on the recent trend. FTR reported preliminary September orders of 21,300 units, up 3% year on year, while ACT Research reported final September orders of 19,172 units, down 7%⁸. Direction is a better guide than the exact monthly level.

Parts and slot limits now cap supply

Daimler Truck North America assembled fewer trucks than planned in the third quarter, and the shortfall carried into the fourth. Parent company CEO Karin Radstrom said this on Daimler Truck's November 6 earnings call². DTNA asked suppliers in the spring to hire staff, buy more raw materials and add shifts, and some fell short, she said². Cummins, which supplies engines to DTNA alongside in-house Detroit Diesel, said the fast ramp created component constraints, "particularly in axles"².

DTNA sold 45,629 trucks and buses in the quarter, up 51%². Sales count only when built, and expedited freight for late parts cost low to mid double-digit millions of dollars, CFO Eva Scherer said².

Paccar delivered 40,100 trucks in the third quarter against about 42,000 expected, and guided to 41,000 to 43,000 in the fourth³. CEO Preston Feight said the problem is rarely broad: "All you have to do is miss a single part on a truck and it becomes impactful"³.

Traton CEO Christian Levin said of International Motors that "the supplier base is not yet fully keeping pace with the rapid increase in production"⁴. Its San Antonio plant is due to build about 100 trucks a day in the fourth quarter, nearly double once a second shift starts⁴.

Volvo Group is limiting 2027 build slots while ramping plants, and CEO Martin Lundstedt tied the restriction to uncertainty over how the EPA rule would land⁵. "We have been restrictive in our order slotting [in North America] in quarter 3 to secure not having an order book that is filled too far into 2027," he said⁵. Volvo Trucks North America is hiring up to 500 workers at its New River Valley plant, and Mack has added about 270 at Macungie⁵.

Cummins, whose spokesperson said the pace of the ramp created challenges across the supply chain, put industrywide heavy-duty truck production at 70,000 units in the third quarter, up 62% year on year^2, 9.

The rule that decides what buyers can order

The EPA's 2027 nitrogen oxide (NOx) rule takes effect on January 1, but the final text is not out⁹. Cummins expects the final rulemaking in December, days before the start date, and CEO Jennifer Rumsey said uncertainty over the price of noncompliance penalties is making some customers wait⁹. The rule cuts NOx to 35 milligrams per horsepower-hour from 200⁹.

Paccar, Traton and Volvo will all offer both engine types in 2027. Paccar will keep selling 200-milligram engines after January 1, with a nonconformance penalty, and Feight said customers want "proven, stable technology"³. Traton's first EPA 2027-compliant engines reach customers in the second quarter⁴. Rush Enterprises CEO William Rush said the final rule may land in January or February, after the compliance date, and that dealers will get compliant and non-compliant trucks on different schedules¹⁰.

So a fleet ordering now faces two different lead times and a price gap that depends on a penalty schedule nobody has published^4, 9, 10.

Why capacity may stay tight into 2027

Demand signals point up. The Logistics Managers' Index put transportation capacity at 38 in October, an 11th straight month of contraction, and transportation prices at 88⁷. New contract renewals average about a 13% increase on the rates they replace, and Knight-Swift is targeting at least double-digit rises in negotiations that have just begun⁷. US producer prices for long-distance truckload freight were 219.4 in September, up 17.9% from a year earlier¹¹.

Fleet age supports replacement. Volvo Trucks North America president Peter Voorhoeve put average fleet age at 6.5 to 6.7 years, against 5 to 6.5 years historically⁵. Volvo expects North American heavy-duty retail sales of 265,000 trucks in 2026 and 300,000 in 2027⁵. Paccar sees 240,000 to 280,000 in 2027 for the US and Canada, and Traton raised its 2026 forecast for the US, Canada and Mexico to 266,000 to 285,000^3, 4. Those are forecasts, and October's orders sit awkwardly beside them¹.

Used equipment is already pricing in scarcity. ACT Research put the average retail price of a used Class 8 truck at $64,007 in September, up 11.5% from a year earlier, though down 1.9% from August⁶. J.D. Power's auction prices were up 24.8% from 2025⁶. Werner CEO Derek Leathers said factory constraints, an older average fleet and the coming EPA standards all support demand for good used trucks⁶.

Autonomous trucks will not fill the gap soon. Aurora expects to reach 200 driverless trucks in February rather than in 2026 after supplier issues, and 1,000 by the end of 2027¹². Supply Chain Dive reported on November 6 that the schedule had slipped on supply and quality issues, with the 1,000-truck target unchanged¹³. Against Volvo's forecast of 265,000 North American heavy-duty sales in 2026 rising to 300,000 in 2027, that is a small addition⁵.

Not everyone expects the upcycle to run. The Journal of Commerce reported that some analysts question whether tightening capacity can sustain a recovery in 2027¹⁴.

What it means for procurement buyers

For buyers, the constraint to plan around is equipment. New equipment is being squeezed twice: fleets ordered less in October, and factories are building fewer trucks than planned because suppliers of axles and engines are behind^1, 2, 3. Volvo has rationed 2027 build slots over EPA uncertainty⁵, and International's first EPA 2027-compliant engines reach customers only in the second quarter⁴. Fleet age is already 6.5 to 6.7 years, above the historical 5 to 6.5 years⁵, and used truck prices are 11.5% higher than a year ago⁶.

Start 2027 truckload sourcing earlier than usual, and expect double-digit asks: contract renewals are averaging about 13% over the rates they replace⁷. In RFPs, ask each carrier for its average tractor age, the number of 2027 units it has on confirmed order, and whether those units carry current or 2027-compliant engines^5, 4. Treat a thin equipment plan as a service risk, not just a cost line.

If you buy trucks yourself, place orders early and choose deliberately between a compliant engine and one carrying a nonconformance penalty whose price is still unknown^9, 10. For leased units, check how the contract handles residual values now that used prices are rising⁶.

Sources

1.FreightWaves, Class 8 truck orders plunge 36% as EPA uncertainty rattles fleets, 5 November 2026. Accessed 8 November 2026.
2.Transport Topics, Third-party axle, engine supply issues dent DTNA truck output, 7 November 2026. Accessed 8 November 2026.
3.Transport Topics, Higher truck demand leads to Paccar Q3 supply chain hiccups, 29 October 2026. Accessed 8 November 2026.
4.Transport Topics, Traton confirms International will offer 2 engines in 2027, 29 October 2026. Accessed 8 November 2026.
5.Transport Topics, Volvo limits 2027 truck order slots in North America, 24 October 2026. Accessed 8 November 2026.
6.Transport Topics, Used Class 8 retail sales lose steam in September, 30 October 2026. Accessed 8 November 2026.
7.FreightWaves, Peak season inventory surge bolsters TL carriers’ double-digit rate ask, 3 November 2026. Accessed 8 November 2026.
8.FreightWaves, US trailer orders soar 385% as Class 8 truck market sends mixed signals, 22 October 2026. Accessed 8 November 2026.
9.Transport Topics, Cummins expects final EPA NOx rulemaking in December, 6 November 2026. Accessed 8 November 2026.
10.FreightWaves, Waiting on EPA ‘27 rule, Rush says it might not be soon, 3 November 2026. Accessed 8 November 2026.
11.US Bureau of Labor Statistics via FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, US producer prices, long-distance truckload freight (FRED series PCU484121484121), 1 September 2026. Accessed 8 November 2026.
12.Transport Topics, Aurora will miss 2026 goal but remains on track for 2027, 29 October 2026. Accessed 8 November 2026.
13.Supply Chain Dive, Aurora’s truck production schedule delayed by supply, quality issues, 6 November 2026. Accessed 8 November 2026.
14.Journal of Commerce, Trucking recovery takes shape, but headwinds temper carrier optimism, 6 November 2026. Accessed 8 November 2026.

How this story was made: the Procupy News Desk researched and wrote it with AI tools, working only from the sources listed above. Automated checks confirmed that every number and quote appears in those sources, and a separate AI fact-check compared the story with them before publication. Read our editorial policy. Spotted a mistake? Tell us and we will fix it.