OPEC+ producers have agreed in principle to keep December production targets unchanged. The pause in output policy runs until next year, as the group negotiates quotas for 2027, according to a Reuters report citing three people familiar with the matter1. The understanding was reached ahead of an online meeting on Sunday 1 November of seven members: Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Algeria, Kazakhstan and Oman1.
The account rests on unnamed sources and describes an agreement in principle, not a published decision1. Reuters reported in July that the group was likely to pause target adjustments after September, with attention shifting to future quotas1.
What is being held back
The group completed the phased rollback of a 1.65 million barrels per day (bpd) cut in September, the report said1. A second layer of cuts, about 2 million bpd, stays in place through the end of 20261. The group is also expected to finish a review of members' production capacity in the fourth quarter, which will set the baselines used to allocate 2027 quotas1.
Holding December steady leaves output policy on pause into 2027, so no quota-driven supply increase is scheduled before the new baselines are agreed1. Prices are already high. Brent spot was $123.10 a barrel on 27 October, up 87.9% from a year earlier, with a 52-week high of $138.21 on 7 April2. WTI spot was $103.37 the same day4. Those official assessments are dated before the latest tanker incidents in the Strait of Hormuz on 30 October5. The Indian basket averaged $121.25 a barrel in October against $65.08 a year earlier6.
Bunker fuel and the surcharges built on it
Singapore, the world's largest bunkering hub, expects 1.3 million to 1.5 million metric tons of low-sulphur fuel oil from Europe in November. That is down from about 1.6 million to 1.7 million tons in October, traders told Platts3. The East-West spread between Singapore and Rotterdam assessments reached $192 a metric ton on 28 October. That was up from $172 a day earlier and the widest since Platts began tracking the data in April 20223.
The spread has gained 16.5% in two weeks, and the same traders said high freight rates were shutting the arbitrage that normally refills Singapore3. Fuel oil stocks in Singapore averaged 6% lower in October than in September at 18.52 million barrels, while recommended VLSFO lead times stretched to 14 to 21 days7. In South Korea, Busan's VLSFO price climbed by about $100 a metric ton since the start of October to roughly $1,0698.
That matters now because the Asia-Europe container contract tendering season is in full swing, and carriers are pushing spot rates that act as a guide for annual negotiations9. Carriers also pass fuel through directly. Maersk cut its intermodal fuel fee for truck moves in Italy to 17% from 18%, for both imports and exports, from 1 November10. The carrier said it will keep reviewing the level monthly as energy markets change10.
Diesel, trucking and India's bill
On the products side, US on-highway diesel was $6.352 a gallon on 26 October, up 75.5% from a year earlier11. Russia extended a general ban on diesel exports by producers until the end of January, while allowing some volumes to flow12. About 510,000 tons shipped this month and about 2.15 million tons are planned for November, Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said12. India raised its special additional excise duty on diesel exports to Rs 11.50 a litre from Rs 8.50, and on jet fuel to Rs 11 from Rs 10.5013.
For India, the crude bill is the bigger channel. The import bill rose 46.3% to $90.6 billion in April to September while volumes were largely flat, PPAC data show6. Every $1 a barrel increase in crude prices raises the annual import bill by up to $2 billion, according to the same report6. The rupee was at 94.95 to the dollar on 30 October14. About 45% of India's crude imports passed through the Strait of Hormuz before the conflict began13.
How much recovery is priced in
Gulf supply is recovering but is not back to pre-war levels. Iraq exported an average 1.9 million bpd in the first nine months of 2026, against 3.4 million bpd before the Iran-US conflict began15. The oil minister said exports exceeded 3 million bpd in September and October15. Saudi Arabia produced 8 million bpd in September, up 12.2% from August16. Most members are still producing below their assigned targets because of the disruption, Reuters reported1.
So the next increase in Gulf barrels depends more on repairs, shipping and export logistics than on quota decisions1, 15. The group's 2027 baselines, due from the fourth-quarter capacity review, will decide how fast the remaining cuts are unwound1.
What to watch
The first marker is the formal outcome of Sunday's meeting, since the December hold has so far been reported through sources rather than a published statement1. The second is Hormuz. Iran's Revolutionary Guards Navy said four oil tankers caught fire and exploded in the strait on 30 October, and the UK Maritime Trade Operations agency reported a tanker hit by an unknown projectile5. About one-fifth of global oil supplies pass through the waterway5.
Forecasts point the other way: S&P Global Energy expects crude to trade in an $80 to $100 range through 2027, with Brent averaging around $90 or higher for the rest of 2026 and $86 next year6.