Russia's government signed a decree on 31 October extending its general ban on diesel exports by producers to the end of January 20271. The decree has not been published, so the terms of the exemptions for selected suppliers are not public1.
Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said Russia plans to export about 2.15 million tonnes of diesel in November, after about 510,000 tonnes in October1. Refinery attacks could trim volumes, though not significantly, he said1. He gave a lower figure earlier in October, when he said Russia was ready to export 500,000 tonnes in November4, so the 2.15 million tonne number is provisional.
Exemptions are not barrels
Seaborne diesel exports from Russia's western terminals averaged 510,000 tonnes a month in the third quarter, against 3.27 million tonnes a month a year earlier, shipbroker Gibson said5. CERA put 45% of Russian primary refining capacity offline at the end of September4.
OFAC, the US Treasury's sanctions office, opened US imports of Russian diesel until 7 April 2027 under General License 135, issued on 9 October5. The licence does not cover sanctioned vessels, bunkering or the price cap5. EU and UK rules are unchanged5.
Greenpeace tracked six tankers carrying an estimated 268,000 tonnes of Russian diesel to the US, with no certainty that they can unload6. "In the near term, volumes are unlikely to amount to anything meaningful unless attacks on Russian refineries stop," Gibson said5.
The pool is already short
The International Energy Agency said global diesel and gasoil availability was 1.5 million barrels a day lower in the second quarter than a year earlier2. Middle East disruption, lower Russian supply and curbs in some Asian countries drove the gap, which widened to 1.7 million barrels a day in the third quarter2. September global diesel exports were 700,000 barrels a day below a year earlier, and OECD gasoil stocks were 5% below pre-conflict levels in July3. The IEA sees no stock recovery before the second half of 20273.
US on-highway diesel was $6.352 a gallon in the week to 26 October, up 81.5% since January but down 2.7% from a month earlier7. Europe's ARA diesel barge crack rose above $74 a barrel on 16 October, below the $98.01 peak on 1 September4. November ICE gasoil traded near $1,477 a tonne on 23 October, close to $200 a barrel, Kpler said8.
India's export pull
India shipped 700,000 barrels a day of diesel in October, up from 620,000 in September and the highest in 12 months, Kpler data show2. Refineries ran above 100% of capacity, lifting exports to 2.90 million tonnes2. India is now the second-largest seaborne diesel exporter after the US9.
Reliance Industries said gasoil cracks averaged $65.8 a barrel in the September quarter, against $18.7 a year earlier10. It moved diesel and jet fuel into the Mediterranean to replace lost supply10. Kpler assessed West Coast India to Rotterdam as closed by $60 to $70 a tonne for November arrivals, but less closed than India to Singapore, so cargoes keep heading west8.
Delhi is taxing the trade harder. The Finance Ministry raised the diesel export levy to Rs 11.50 a litre from Rs 8.50 on 31 October, lifted ATF's to Rs 11 and cut petrol's to zero11. Domestic duty rates were unchanged11. The levies were introduced in late March to discourage exports over domestic sales12.
What to do now
Consumers have been largely shielded: the government has kept pump prices for petrol and diesel stable12. Pump prices rose only once, by 7.5% in May, Oxford Economics said13. Kpler expects stable prices to keep domestic diesel demand firm2. Oxford Economics sees November as the last realistic window for a modest rise, which it says could lift retail inflation to 6.2% in the December quarter if the rise happens13.
For buyers, three points matter. First, fix the reset frequency in any diesel-linked surcharge. Magnus Technologies says a surcharge that lags the pump by $0.78 a gallon costs a US carrier 12 cents a mile, and wants weekly re-rating against a published index14. Second, treat Russian exemptions as the main swing factor for the first quarter of 2027, not a fixed number1, 5. Third, watch the pump, because a November retail rise would reach every generator, tractor and truck at once13.
The counter-argument is real. If Novak delivers 2.15 million tonnes in November, Russian supply would sit far above October's 510,000 tonnes1. US diesel is already below its September peak7, and the IEA expects global oil demand to fall by 2.6 million barrels a day in 2026, with diesel one quarter of the decline3. That does not end the shortage, but it argues against assuming prices can only rise.