Supply ChainAnalysis

Cargo theft incidents fall 25% but losses climb 39% on freight fraud

Fewer cargo thefts are reported in the US and Canada, but each one costs far more. Fraudulent pickups and fake carriers are now the fastest-growing threat.

By Procupy News DeskPublished 7 Nov 2026, 4:53 PM IST5 min readSource: FreightWaves

In 60 words

Cargo theft incidents in the US and Canada fell 25% in the year to 23 October, but losses rose 39% to $718.9m as thieves targeted fewer, more valuable loads. Fictitious pickups, fake carrier identities and compromised email accounts now drive the fastest-growing share of losses. In Mexico, thefts from parked trucks rose to 42.2% of incidents.

Key points

Verisk CargoNet recorded 2,072 incidents in the US and Canada to 23 October, down 25% from 2,755, while losses rose 39% to $718.9m¹.
Third-quarter losses reached $230.1m on 547 incidents, including 138 fictitious pickups¹.
TAPA Americas says deception-based strategic theft has grown from under 3% of incidents before 2020 to roughly 30%¹.
In Mexico, theft from parked trucks reached 42.2% of third-quarter incidents, up 9 percentage points².

Reported cargo theft incidents in the US and Canada fell 25% in the year to 23 October. The value of the goods stolen rose 39%, according to Verisk CargoNet data reported by The Loadstar on 6 November. CargoNet recorded 2,072 incidents, against 2,755 in the same period of 2025, while losses reached $718.9m¹.

The average documented value of stolen goods rose 72%, from about $261,000 to more than $448,000¹. "The data shows why fewer reported incidents should not necessarily be interpreted as lower cargo theft risk," Keith Lewis, vice president of operations at Verisk CargoNet, said¹.

Fewer thefts, bigger targets

In the third quarter alone, CargoNet recorded 547 incidents, about 33% fewer than a year earlier, and estimated losses of $230.1m¹. California accounted for 182 of the incidents, ahead of New Jersey, Texas and Illinois. Warehouses and distribution centres accounted for 197¹.

Food and beverages were the most targeted category in the quarter with 94 incidents. Metals followed with 63, then household goods with 49 and electronics with 46¹. Fictitious pickups, in which a criminal poses as the booked carrier and collects the load, barely moved, at 138 incidents against 147 a year earlier¹.

The pattern suggests criminals are choosing fewer, more valuable loads rather than stealing more often. "Criminals are stealing less often and choosing their loads more carefully," Aqil Naeem, chief executive of E3 Group, which sells driver verification software, told FreightWaves³. Scott Cornell, who chairs TAPA Americas, estimated that CargoNet captures roughly 1 in 10 full-truckload thefts, so even the loss figure understates the problem⁴.

A carrier check does not prove who is driving

Scott Cornell estimated that strategic theft has risen 10-fold this decade. Such theft uses deception rather than force. It made up less than 3% of all cargo theft before 2020 and roughly 30% or more now, he said¹. At an industry conference in October, he put the share at roughly 25% to 33% of thefts, depending on the quarter. He said such theft rose 1,475% between 2021 and 2024⁴.

He described a "Trojan Driver Scam" in which criminals place accomplices inside legitimate, vetted trucking companies¹. "Thorough background checks and carrier- and driver-level vetting need to be standard due diligence," Cornell said¹.

The Airforwarders Association says criminals buy established federal motor carrier registrations from struggling hauliers for $25,000 to $35,000. That hands them years of apparently clean operating history¹. Its chief executive, Steve Smith, said a fraudulent pickup in one state and a stripped trailer in another may involve the same network. Fragmented records make the link hard to see¹.

Federal prosecutors in Connecticut announced charges against a driver on 21 October. They allege a scheme that took control of established trucking companies and used their identities to win freight contracts⁵. At least 24 shipments disappeared, and thefts involving the defendant were estimated at more than $12 million in retail value⁵. He has pleaded not guilty⁵. Court documents describe five fraudulent driver's licences carrying the same photograph⁵. The Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration has warned against buying, selling or leasing operating authority outside legitimate corporate transactions⁵.

Mexico's thieves move to the parking lot

In Mexico, thefts involving parked commercial vehicles accounted for 42.2% of reported incidents in the third quarter. That is up 9 percentage points from a year earlier, according to Overhaul data reported by FreightWaves². Thefts from trucks intercepted while travelling fell 8.6 percentage points to 55.4% of incidents².

Central Mexico accounted for 48% of incidents and the Bajío manufacturing region for 28%². The State of Mexico was the largest hotspot at 22.5%, followed by Puebla at 15% and Guanajuato at 9.6%². Some 61% of thefts took place between 6pm and 6am. The share between midnight and 6am rose to 31% from 22%².

Food and beverage was again the top category, at 32.6% of incidents, up 7.3 percentage points². Electronics thefts were mostly from moving trucks, at 85%. Some 94% of them occurred in central Mexico, the Bajío and the northeast².

Luis Enrique Villatoro is president of ANERPV, Mexico's national association of vehicle tracking and protection companies. He projected that cargo theft could rise between 9% and 11% in November as holiday shipping picks up. That is a forecast, not a result².

What to tighten before 2027 contracts

The weak point at pickup is identity, not paperwork. Naeem said a $25 fake commercial driver's licence with working barcodes will pass a visual check³. His advice: do not release the pickup number until the shipper or broker knows who is coming. On high-value loads, hold a live video call with the driver at the truck³. He also said buyers should pull insurance and authority records from the issuing bodies, and call back only on numbers already on file³.

TAPA Americas has published Freight Broker Security Requirements, a tiered standard for brokers that arrange transport without owning assets⁶.

Insurance terms need the same scrutiny. Michael Caney, chief commercial officer at vetting platform Highway, described a common gap. A carrier can remove a truck from its insurance policy, and the change never reaches the broker, which learns of it after a loss⁷. He said vetting should confirm the carrier holds cover for that specific load, including the commodity and the liability limit⁸. Peter Niro of Progressive said standard motor truck cargo policies carry gaps and exclusions. He urged carriers to check exactly what a policy covers⁹.

Liability is shifting too. In May, the US Supreme Court ruled unanimously that brokers may be sued under state law for negligent hiring when they choose a carrier, in Montgomery v. Caribe Transport II⁷.

The law is not there yet

The Airforwarders Association wants Congress to fold the Combating Organized Retail Crime Act into the final fiscal 2027 National Defense Authorization Act¹⁰. The House passed the bill by 348 votes to 60 in May¹⁰. It would create an Organized Retail and Supply Chain Crime Coordination Center within Homeland Security Investigations. The bill would also aggregate theft values over 12 months for certain federal offences, and add money laundering and forfeiture measures^1, 10.

The American Trucking Associations said the Senate moved to include the measure in the defence authorization process. It said the current Congress must finish the annual defence bill before the new Congress convenes¹¹. It is not law yet.

What happens next turns on three dates: the November and December peak, Mexico's Buen Fin and Black Friday shipping, and the defense bill. Buyers renewing freight and 3PL contracts for 2027 will be negotiating against all three.

What it means for procurement buyers

Loss per load is now the number that hits a buying budget. CargoNet puts the average documented value of stolen goods at more than $448,000, up 72%¹. Scott Cornell of TAPA Americas said the $724 million in declared value for nearly 3,600 thefts in 2025 was already a fraction of the full cost, which includes lost sales, investigations and replacement production⁴.

Lead times suffer too. Thieves took 197 loads from warehouses and distribution centres in the third quarter, and in Mexico 42.2% of thefts involved parked trucks, often overnight^1, 2. Losing a load at the yard means remaking and reshipping it, and the replacement may miss the same delivery window.

Supplier risk now sits with the person at the gate, not the carrier's record. TAPA Americas describes criminals placed inside vetted carriers, and the Airforwarders Association says established carrier registrations sell for $25,000 to $35,000¹. Checks on the carrier alone will not catch them.

Before 2027 freight and 3PL renewals, write driver-level identity checks into the agreement, require notice when a carrier or truck is removed from a policy, and confirm who files a claim and by when after a loss^7, 9. Ask for the audit trail behind each pickup and keep a second approved carrier for high-value lanes³. Expect more vetting requests in return, because brokers may now be sued in state court over the carriers they choose⁷.

Sources

1.The Loadstar, Cargo crime in North America down in Q3, but losses are mounting, 6 November 2026. Accessed 7 November 2026.
2.FreightWaves, Mexico cargo thieves shift tactics as Q3 truck parking thefts surge, 6 November 2026. Accessed 7 November 2026.
3.FreightWaves, Freight Fraud Gets More Strategic Heading Into Peak Season, 20 October 2026. Accessed 7 November 2026.
4.Transport Topics, Cargo theft has entered ‘new normal,’ executive says, 21 October 2026. Accessed 7 November 2026.
5.FreightWaves, Feds charge driver in alleged $12M cargo theft scheme built on hijacked carrier identities, 23 October 2026. Accessed 7 November 2026.
6.tapaonline.org, Home Template. Accessed 7 November 2026.
7.FreightWaves, Highway pitches shared standards as freight fraud shifts, 21 October 2026. Accessed 7 November 2026.
8.FreightWaves, The Companies That Write The Standards Will Own The Next Decade Of Freight, 28 October 2026. Accessed 7 November 2026.
9.FreightWaves, Why Your Trucking Insurance Costs Are Rising & How to Fight Back, 4 November 2026. Accessed 7 November 2026.
10.Air Cargo News, US air forwarders push for action on cargo crime - Air Cargo News, 5 November 2026. Accessed 7 November 2026.
11.Transport Topics, Elections change Congress, but they don’t change trucking’s priorities, 5 November 2026. Accessed 7 November 2026.

How this story was made: the Procupy News Desk researched and wrote it with AI tools, working only from the sources listed above. Automated checks confirmed that every number and quote appears in those sources, and a separate AI fact-check compared the story with them before publication. Read our editorial policy. Spotted a mistake? Tell us and we will fix it.