Spot container rates from Asia to Europe rose again in early November, even as more ships sail back through the Red Sea. Freightos said rates to North Europe are about 10% higher than a month ago and rates to the Mediterranean about 23% higher1. The Mediterranean rate rose 3% in the past week to $4,375 per FEU, the standard 40-foot container, while North Europe was about level at $3,595 per FEU1.
Air freight from Asia to North America is tighter still. Freightos put Far East to North America rates at $7.76 per kg, up 9% in a week and 40% higher than a year earlier. It said that level is approaching the 2025 peak of $8.00 per kg reached in early December1.
Why rates rise while ships return to Suez
Demand is the main reason analysts give. Volumes shipped from Asia to Europe rose 12.2% in the first seven months of 2026, according to Xeneta5. "This is a conundrum because the release of capacity into the global fleet should ease pressure on rates, but we are seeing the opposite," Xeneta chief analyst Peter Sand said5.
Operational friction adds to it. Freightos cited congestion at North European hubs, backlogs in the Far East, and a one-day port worker strike across many ports in Europe, which it said may add to backlogs1. In Hamburg, terminal operator HHLA cut its 2026 earnings forecast, citing strike-related disruption6.
Carriers planned general rate increases, known as GRIs, of $1,000 to $1,500 per FEU on Asia-Europe from 1 November1. Drewry counted four announced blank sailings on Asia-Europe for the following week, against eight in the current week2.
Alphaliner said it saw no immediate sign of overcapacity on Asia-Europe, even with the Suez return, because congestion and schedule disruption keep fleets from running efficiently7.
The size of the rise depends on the benchmark
Drewry's World Container Index fell 3% to $4,429 per 40-foot container in the week to 29 October, but its Asia-Europe legs were firmer. Shanghai to Rotterdam rose 1% to $3,686 and Shanghai to Genoa was unchanged at $4,1512. Xeneta recorded a 6.8% weekly rise to $3,698 per FEU to North Europe and 5.8% to $4,442 to the Mediterranean in the week to 23 October5. The Freightos Baltic Index global composite fell 1% to $3,5132.
Freightos said Asia-Europe prices fell $2,000 to $3,000 per FEU between July and September, about back to their mid-May baseline1. Xeneta said North Europe rates were still 33.2% below 1 July and Mediterranean rates 36.7% below, even after October's gains5.
The percentages are index readings, not quotes a buyer can book. The Freightos update does not name the index behind the 10% and 23% figures, and it quotes rates in dollars per FEU, the unit used by the Freightos Baltic Index1, 8. That index takes the median of short-term Freight All Kind spot tariffs and related surcharges, averaged over five business days8.
Filed increases run well above market offers
Carriers filed aggressive levels for 1 November. MSC aimed for $4,500 per 40-foot container to North Europe, $5,000 to the west Mediterranean and $5,100 to the east Mediterranean. CMA CGM aimed for $4,900 and $5,200 to the west and east Mediterranean3.
Offers in the market were lower. Linerlytica said Hapag-Lloyd quoted $3,000 to $3,200 per 40-foot container and Maersk $3,200 to $3,400, while MSC, the Ocean Alliance and the Premier Alliance cut offers to $3,400 to $3,500. "The 1 November rate hike is effectively doomed," Linerlytica said3.
Carriers tried again for 15 November. MSC lifted its Asia to North Europe target to $4,600 and its west Mediterranean target to $5,300, and CMA CGM to $5,500 to the west Mediterranean3. Freightos said forwarders doubt further increases will hold1.
What it means for 2027 contracts and fuel surcharges
With the Asia-Europe tender season in full swing, 2027 offers are more likely to open near filed FAK levels than at the discounted prices cargo actually moved at in late October3.
Fuel pushes the same way, which undercuts the assumption that cheaper crude would trim bunker surcharge bills. Brent was $123.1 a barrel on 27 October, up 87.9% from a year earlier and up 100.7% since the start of 2026, despite a 3.9% one-day slip9. Jet fuel in the week to 23 October cost 118.5% more than a year earlier, according to IATA and Platts data cited by Air Cargo News4.
Very low sulphur fuel oil in Singapore climbed back above $1,000 a tonne in October for the first time since March, Ship & Bunker data showed10. Swire Shipping will raise its Emergency Bunker Surcharge to $1,070 per 40-foot container from 15 November, on top of its prevailing bunker adjustment factor11.
Air: the Pacific lane is the tight one
Hong Kong to North America air rates started October at $7.16 per kg and ended the month at $8.17 per kg, 38.7% up on a year earlier, TAC Index data show. The October average was $7.64 per kg, up 34% on the year and above September's $7.024.
Hong Kong to Europe is calmer. The October average was $5.31 per kg, up 15.7% on the year and above September's $4.804. Freightos put Asia to Europe air at about $4.39 per kg, 11% higher on the year but well below the roughly $5.25 per kg seen earlier in 20261.
The Baltic Air Freight Index, which TAC calculates, gained 4.7% in the seven days to 19 October. It was 26.4% higher than a year earlier, above the highest points of the previous two peak seasons12. TAC expects rates to rise further4.
Air volumes from Asia to North America rose 17% in September, helped by shipments for AI and data centre equipment4. Asia to Europe volumes rose 6%, held back by new EU charges on low-value parcels4.
The transpacific pull, for contrast
Alphaliner estimates carriers earn up to $1.30 per nautical mile on spot boxes from China to the US west coast. The same measure gives $0.34 to Rotterdam via Suez and $0.26 around the Cape of Good Hope7. That is revenue per mile, not profit7.