Gatun Lake, the reservoir that feeds the Panama Canal's locks, averaged 85.80 ft (26.15 m) in October, according to Ursa Shipbrokers research based on Panama Canal Authority data. That put the lake close to its historical average for the month1. The authority's own dashboard showed 86.2 ft on 21 October, above the five-year average for October and approaching the November average, after about 84 ft at the start of September6.
The water came back alongside a rule change. Advisory to Shipping No. A-40-2026 restored, with immediate effect, the criteria used before July 2026 to reallocate Neopanamax slots cancelled or freed in booking periods 1A and 22. Container ships rank first, then LNG carriers, LPG carriers and vehicle or RoRo vessels, with transit TEU allowance as the primary tiebreaker where applicable7. The same advisory allowed NetZero tonnage inspections to be carried out outside Panama from 1 November2.
The canal matters beyond shipping schedules. It carries about 5% of global maritime trade, and its two lakes supply drinking water to about 2 million people8.
What near-normal water changes
| Measure | Latest reading | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Gatun Lake level | 86.2 ft on 21 October, above the five-year October average | Mar Exec6 |
| October lake average | 85.80 ft (26.15 m), Ursa Shipbrokers estimate | Splash2471 |
| Maximum authorized draft | 50 ft, held through the FY2026 dry season | gCaptain3 |
| Daily booking slots | 33, including 10 Neopanamax, from 15 October | gCaptain3 |
| FY2026 transits | 13,951, up 4.1% | ACP via gCaptain3 |
Booking capacity is now 33 slots a day, including 10 Neopanamax slots, a level set from 15 October3. Actual transits can run higher: the authority lifted daily transits from 36 to 41 for a period during the year to meet demand6. It has also kept the maximum authorized draft at 50 ft through the fiscal year's dry season3.
Two smaller steps matter for schedules. The canal brought back its Last-Minute Reservation service for Panamax locks on 21 October, so ships without a booking can take a slot when one opens3. It also added one Neopanamax slot back as water improved6.
Financially, the year was strong. The canal handled 13,951 transits in the year to 30 September, up 4.1%, and 521 million PC/UMS tons, up 6.5% and above the 2022 record of 518 million tons. Revenue rose 16.6% to about $6.6 billion, unaudited3, 6.
Suez is loosening in the same quarter
About 63% of the capacity deployed between the Far East and Europe has returned to the Red Sea, Alphaliner found, with vessels on 24 of 46 direct services transiting the Red Sea4. Linerlytica expects all three alliances and MSC to make a full return to Suez by the first quarter of 2027, leaving Zim as the only major carrier on the Cape route5. Faster voyages free ships as well as time: the Premier Alliance's revised MD1 will use 12 vessels of 11,700 to 14,000 teu instead of 16 on the Cape route5.
Where cost and delay still sit
The big premiums appeared when slots were scarce. A daily auction drew a record bid above $5 million6. The advisory covered allocation criteria and NetZero eligibility, not tolls2.
Ocean spot rates are falling into the contract season. Drewry put Shanghai to Los Angeles at $7,514 per 40ft, down 6% in a week, and Shanghai to New York at $9,631, down 5%9. A weekly ICIS market round-up put Asia to US rates at $7,515 to $8,365 per FEU to the West Coast and $9,600 to $11,500 to the East Coast, near the highest since mid-202210. The Asia-Europe contract tendering season is in full swing, and Linerlytica said the 1 November rate increase was "effectively doomed"9.
On the US west coast, the inland leg is the weak link. Average rail dwell at Los Angeles and Long Beach rose to 7.19 days in September, and 35,688 import containers were waiting for on-dock trains on 26 October11. The October Logistics Managers' Index rose to 70.7, with inventory costs at 88.8 and transportation capacity at 38.012.
The dry season is the test
None of this settles the water question. The World Meteorological Organization forecasts that tropical Pacific sea-surface temperatures could rise to 3.8°C above average between November 2026 and January 202713. It says the event is expected to peak towards the end of this year, and that effects could persist well into 2027, with higher drought risk in parts of Central America13.
Panama has a national state of emergency running to June 2027 and has forecast rainfall deficits above 50% in some regions until December8. Its dry season starts in December8. Low water twice forced restrictions on daily transits in September8.
The canal has said a continuing water deficit could require further operational adjustments, particularly if El Niño intensifies, and that it will announce changes as needed3, 14. The longer fix is storage: the authority is advancing the Río Indio reservoir project, which Panamanian authorities forecast would be completed in two to three years8, 3.