Democrats won control of the House and Senate in the US midterm elections on November 3, The Guardian reported, and results tallies show a House majority and at least 54 Senate seats1, 6, 2.
New senators begin six-year terms on January 3, 20272. The Republican caucus still controls the current Congress until then1. For importers, customs entries, duty rates and refund claims in the fourth quarter run under the same rules as before the vote.
Markets moved early on November 4 and then partly reversed. The dollar was 0.5% lower against a basket of six other major currencies1. Spot gold rose 3% to $4,046 an ounce1. The 10-year Treasury yield fell 4.7 basis points to 4.918%1. ING's Chris Turner said the reversal probably reflected that Democrats do not take office until January1.
What Congress can change, and what it cannot
Congress holds the constitutional power to levy tariffs, but it has passed laws that let the president impose them unilaterally for national security reasons7. Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act is the route used for steel, aluminium, copper and cars, and Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974 lets the US Trade Representative act against unfair trade practices7.
That means a Democratic Congress cannot switch off existing duties by resolution. It would need legislation, and the new majorities are not veto-proof, according to Steven Chiavarone of Federated Hermes1.
What it can do is scrutinise. Indian officials said the result means more oversight of Trump's trade policy and restrictions on his ability to impose reciprocal tariffs unilaterally3. They also said a weakened president may give India more room in trade talks3.
Those expectations come from officials, not from an announced policy. Ashok Malik, a former Indian foreign policy official, said much will depend on how far Congress can curtail Trump. "Trump's actions in the near term and the rest of his presidency will be an important metric," he said3. GTRI's Ajay Srivastava said the electoral setback is unlikely to change the broader direction of US trade policy8.
Duties that stay in place
Section 232 duties on steel, aluminium, copper, cars and derivative products remain, with rates as high as 50% on some metal articles7. Section 301 duties also remain7. The average effective US tariff rate was 12.1% as of July 21, 2026, after the Supreme Court struck down the emergency tariffs7.
Trump's other lever is the Russia oil sanctions law he signed in September. It lets him impose levies of as much as 100% on the top buyers of Russian energy, Indian officials said3. Ongoing trade investigations are a second route to new duties3.
One live case shows how that works. Proclamation 11077, signed on October 28, directed negotiations on robotics and industrial machinery, with an update due within 180 days, after a Section 232 investigation found that imports threatened national security. The proclamation keeps tariffs, quotas and fees available if talks fail9.
On the China side, a suspension of Section 301 port fees on China-linked ships and cargo-handling equipment expires at 11:59 p.m. ET on November 9. USTR has proposed extending it from November 10 to January 9, 202710.
Refunds: a pipeline under new oversight
Refunds of the emergency IEEPA tariffs that the Supreme Court struck down in February are already being paid. US Customs and Border Protection had certified about $127.7 billion by October 23, The Loadstar reported4. Nearly $1 billion was held up by a banking-information bottleneck4. The court did not rule on how the money should be repaid11.
The government collected an estimated $166 billion in IEEPA duties from more than 330,000 businesses7. For finance teams, the open question is timing, not entitlement. The Loadstar reported a legal divide that still leaves some importers waiting4.
Roads money and the December 11 deadline
Congress returns on November 9 with a funding deadline on December 115. A stopgap law kept highway contract authority running to that date, but $36.8 billion of advance appropriations from the infrastructure law lapsed on October 15. The lapse puts $10.8 billion of formula funding for road, bridge and safety programs at risk5.
States are already counting. Ohio faces a $218.3 million cut to formula funding and Pennsylvania $539.1 million, according to a report from the office of Senator Maria Cantwell5. Texas faces $494 million5. Some of the affected programs fund freight corridors and truck parking5.
| What changes after January | What stays the same |
|---|---|
| More oversight of trade actions, Indian officials expect3 | Section 232 duties on metals, cars and derivatives, as high as 50% on some articles7 |
| Control of spending bills, including the highway and surface transport funds now in negotiation5 | Section 301 duties, including China-linked ship fees suspended to November 9, with an extension to January 9, 2027 proposed10 |
| A veto gate: the new majorities are not veto-proof1 | Levies of as much as 100% on top buyers of Russian energy, under the September law3 |
| Open cases, including negotiations over robotics and machinery imports9 |
The dollar and 2027 contracts
The dollar fell as Treasury yields dropped1. That matters for buyers who pay in dollars and sell in another currency. A weaker dollar lowers the local-currency cost of the same invoice, and a rebound would raise it. ING had expected a Democratic Congress to be a mild dollar negative1. That is a forecast, not a rate.
Rates could pull the other way. Deborah Cunningham of Federated Hermes said the Fed could raise rates by a quarter point in December, lifting the fed funds target range to 4.00-4.25%1. She also expects more tightening in 20271.
What to watch next
- November 9: Congress returns, and the Section 301 ship-fee suspension expires at 11:59 p.m. ET unless USTR extends it5, 10.
- December 11: The stopgap funding law runs out, with the highway money unresolved5.
- January 3, 2027: New senators are sworn in and Democrats take the gavels2.
- Within 180 days of October 28: Agencies report back on the robotics and machinery talks, with tariffs still available9.
- Ongoing: The Section 122 global tariff case is being appealed after a trade court ruled it illegal7.