Container benchmarks gave opposite readings on the transpacific in the last week of October, and Zim is adding a new express service into that uncertainty. Drewry's World Container Index, a global benchmark, fell 3% to US$4,429 per 40-foot container in its October 29 assessment, after two consecutive weekly increases1. The NYSHEX Freight Index (NYFI), which records rates on containers that actually shipped, rose on both US coasts in its October 30 reading1.
Drewry's transpacific lanes led the fall. Shanghai to Los Angeles dropped 6% to US$7,514 per 40-foot container, and Shanghai to New York dropped 5% to US$9,6311. The Loadstar said the transpacific eastbound fall was the steepest one-week decline recorded by Drewry since June 20253. Drewry counted six blank sailings, voyages carriers cancel to support rates, announced for the following week on the transpacific, against five in the week then running1.
Drewry also cited a National Retail Federation forecast of an 11% month-on-month fall in US ocean import volumes in November1. "Strong US import demand is easing," the consultancy said3.
The other index went up
The NYSHEX index moved the other way. Asia to US west coast rose 1.92% to 7,724.52, from 7,579.09 a week earlier, and Asia to US east coast rose 1.89% to 10,125.18, from 9,936.891. Gains were not limited to the transpacific. Asia to North Europe rose 5.40% to 3,203.78, and transatlantic eastbound rates rose 18.77% to 1,124.31, after a 19.28% fall the week before1.
Other benchmarks landed in between. The Shanghai Containerized Freight Index edged up 0.16% to 3,687.35 on October 30, and the China Containerized Freight Index rose 0.30% to 1,881.821. The Ningbo Containerized Freight Index slipped 0.72% to 2,491.26 in the same round-up1, and the Ningbo Shipping Exchange, which publishes it, reported 2,491.3 points for the week ending October 304. The Freightos Baltic Index fell 1% to US$3,513, from US$3,5601.
Why the indexes disagree
The two benchmarks measure different things. Drewry samples spot rates on selected trade lanes, while NYFI is built from freight rates on containers that have actually shipped1. Container News said the divergence should be read against each index's methodology, route coverage and reporting periods1. One measures what carriers are quoting for new bookings. The other measures the rates on cargo that was booked and moved.
That gap matters for anyone pricing December shipments or planning 2027 budgets. The two readings cover different routes and reporting periods, so neither cancels the other out1.
Spot signals point to a softer market
The evidence beyond the headline index leans towards easing. US west coast forwarder Freight Right said "pricing carried over from last week, while space availability improved and vessel schedules became more consistent"3. It said China to US ocean rates were expected to "remain broadly stable through the first half of November, with the possibility of modest declines"3.
Carriers had scheduled general rate increases, known as GRIs, of $2,000 to $3,000 per 40-foot container from November 1. Freight Right said the chances of them sticking were diminishing3. On Asia to North Europe, Linerlytica said "The 1 November rate hike is effectively doomed"3. Drewry said it remained uncertain whether the November FAK increases, a single rate for all cargo types, could be sustained given available capacity and weak demand1.
What Zim's third express adds
Zim will start ZX3 in December 2026 on the rotation Xiamen, Shanghai, Los Angeles, Xiamen2. The carrier quotes a 12-day transit from Shanghai to Los Angeles and calls the 15-day transit from Xiamen to Los Angeles "best-in-market"2. ZX3 joins ZEX and ZX2, and Zim says the three will offer seven weekly departures from China and Vietnam to the US west coast2.
At Los Angeles, ZX3 will use a dedicated berth, yard and pickup lanes at the West Basin Container Terminal, with Monday arrivals and cargo on dedicated chassis available without an appointment2. Zim lists rail connections to New York, Chicago, Memphis, Dallas and Kansas City2. The announcement did not give the number of vessels the loop will use2.
Hani Kalinski, executive vice president of Zim's Pacific business unit, said the service would give customers "broader market coverage and greater flexibility"2. The Journal of Commerce reported that the launch comes as eastbound transpacific spot rates hover near their 2026 high, late into the traditional peak season5. ZX3 is marketed as a premium expedited service2.
What to watch
Three things will decide whether the spot slide or the shipped-cargo strength sets the tone for early 2027 contracting. The first is whether the November GRIs and FAK increases hold1, 3. The second is blank-sailing discipline, with six transpacific blankings announced for the week after the Drewry assessment, up from five1.
The third is labour at Los Angeles and Long Beach. The Pacific Maritime Association and ILWU Local 26 extended talks to 5pm Pacific Time on November 4, postponing a walkout threatened for November 1. The dispute remains unresolved6. The roughly 250 watchmen work at terminals handling about 85% of cargo at Long Beach and 33% at Los Angeles. The employers' association has warned that other ILWU workers are unlikely to cross picket lines6. The two ports moved a combined record 2.04 million TEU in September6.
For now, the balance of evidence points to a market easing into the year end rather than tightening. The NYFI rise shows cargo that moved was priced above the week before, but carriers are trimming sailings and Drewry cites the NRF forecast of weaker US ocean import demand1. Zim's new loop targets the top end of the market, even as Drewry's spot index points to softer rates2, 1.