A seafarer died after an explosion believed to have been caused by a missile strike on the product tanker MT Velos Sapphire in the central Arabian Gulf1, 2. The Marshall Islands-flagged ship was hit on Thursday while unladen and heading for Bahrain, its manager said1.
Velos Tankers, an Athens-based management firm, said the crew put out a fire on board and that there were no other injuries or reports of pollution1. The ship was taken to Bahrain's Khalifa Bin Salman Port and an investigation will be launched1.
The UK Maritime Trade Operations centre (UKMTO) reported that a tanker was hit by two projectiles overnight on Wednesday, about 50 nautical miles north of the Qatari peninsula2. That position is hundreds of miles west of the Strait of Hormuz, deep inside the Gulf2. The ship's AIS signal went dark at 2313 UTC on Wednesday, close to the reported time of the attack2.
Velos Tankers said it was greatly saddened by the loss. The seafarer was "found fatally injured on board after having initially been reported missing in the aftermath of the explosion", it said1.
Known and claimed
Velos Sapphire is a 74,998 dwt product tanker built in 2007, according to Splash2479. It belongs to a 10-ship fleet, had called at Al Jubail in Saudi Arabia in recent weeks and crossed Hormuz three times, The Maritime Executive reported2. It is not on Iran's Persian Gulf Strait Authority blacklist of about 240 ships, but a fleetmate, Velos Amber, is2.
Iran's Revolutionary Guard Corps said on Friday that two oil tankers struck mines and caught fire in and near the Strait of Hormuz5. A day earlier, Iranian media reported that five tankers and a tugboat had burned5. There has been no confirmation of those incidents from maritime officials, according to AFP5.
Tallies of confirmed attacks differ. UKMTO recorded 35 vessels hit in October, the most in any month of the war, and at least five vessels have reported incidents since Sunday3. IMO Secretary-General Arsenio Dominguez said he recalled the organisation registering 30 attacks in October4. He said: "I cannot guarantee that it's safe. That's why we are not recommending anyone to go through the Strait of Hormuz, and I keep saying for the ships to stay away from it"4.
Premiums priced for a wider map
War-risk costs have been measured mainly around the Hormuz transit. Goldman Sachs attributed $7 a barrel of a $20 a barrel year-on-year rise in the global average crude freight rate to the war-risk premium for crossing the strait6. It put ship-to-ship transfers outside the Gulf at $4 a barrel and higher marine fuel at $46. It said global marine fuel oil prices had risen by nearly $50 a barrel, or 70%, year on year6.
For charterers, the significance is that the attack happened on a routine Gulf voyage, not on a strait transit2. The Maritime Executive said the location is consistent with an apparent Iranian strategy of attacking targets outside the American security umbrella around the Musandam Peninsula2.
Total shipping costs have repriced. The IEA put the cost of moving crude from the Middle East Gulf to Asia above $37 a barrel by mid-October, more than five times prewar levels10. For a 2 million barrel VLCC cargo that is more than $74 million a voyage, against less than $15 million before the conflict10.
Product tankers show the same squeeze. Scorpio Tankers said its LR2s had booked $181,000 a day so far in the fourth quarter, about 150% more than the $72,283 a day earned in the third quarter8. The figures are preliminary and cover 44% of expected LR2 revenue days, 47% for MRs and 37% for Handymax vessels8. Its MR tankers averaged $56,000 a day against $31,183, and Handymax ships $40,000 against $24,2538. Fewer LR2s are available because larger ships have been pulled into crude trades8.
Charterers cannot find ships
HPCL chairman Vikas Kaushal said the Indian refiner struggles to hire tankers for Gulf loading dates, and that owners sometimes pull out after signing7. "Sometimes the ship is contracted and then at the last minute the shipowner says I can't do it," he said7.
HPCL bought about 240,000 barrels a day of Middle East oil in 2025, 57,000 a day in April and 256,000 a day last month, according to Kpler data cited by BusinessLine7.
Gulf producers have responded by shipping exports out themselves and transferring cargo to customers just outside the waterway, BusinessLine reported7. Preliminary Vortexa data cited by Windward put crude exports, excluding Iranian shipments, from terminals west of Hormuz at about 11 million barrels a day in October11. That compares with 1.56 million a day in May and 14.5 million before the war11. The shuttle fleet of nearly 230 tankers has tied up an estimated 15% to 20% of the global VLCC fleet at any one time11.
Each extra transfer adds a shipment leg and a second set of costs, which Goldman put at $4 a barrel6.
Crews, gas and the next test
The International Transport Workers' Federation says thousands of seafarers are stranded in the Strait of Hormuz. It reports shortages of food, water, fuel and medical help, unpaid wages, and more than 40 sailors reportedly killed12. It criticises owners that keep sending ships into the high-risk area12. Deutsche Welle, which reported the ITF's comments, said experts warn that crew refusals could disrupt supply chains over time12.
For gas buyers the exposure is contractual. QatarEnergy declared force majeure on LNG supplies in March after the blockade of Hormuz and attacks on its Ras Laffan facilities, and the force majeure runs through December for now13. India's Petronet LNG has suspended time charters for three LNG tankers because of it and is discussing US-sourced volumes under its Qatari contract from 202813.
LNG carrier transits through Hormuz rose to 32 in October, the highest since the war began, while LPG tanker transits fell to 36 from 404.
Oil prices have fallen more than $20 a barrel from last week as traders bet on de-escalation3. Talks have not produced a breakthrough, and two sources told Reuters that Trump was still likely to order resumed hostilities3. Windward said it would expect transits, already modest, to fall to near zero within 72 hours if combat resumed at the intensity of the first week of March14.