Capesize spot rates rose for a second week, with the Baltic Exchange's capesize 5TC average climbing from $33,795 on Monday to $37,420 on Friday, 30 October1. The Baltic Dry Index closed that day at 2,714, its highest since 13 October2, 4.
The move came as iron ore, one of the main capesize cargoes, stayed weak. Futures fell below CNY 680 per ton, near four-year lows, as stockpiles at major Chinese ports rose nearly 1% to 153.72 million tons and steel mill profitability held at 11.26%5. SMM data show 148.05 million mt at 35 Chinese ports on 30 October, with arrivals up, hot metal output down and inventories expected to keep building6.
The freight bill, route by route
On C5, the Western Australia to China iron ore run, assessments held around the high $13s to $14 early in the week. They pushed through $14 by midweek and reached the low $15s by Thursday, before easing as offers slipped back below $151. On C3, Brazil to China, they advanced from the mid-$34s to the high $36s, helped by a tightening ballaster list and enquiry for December dates1. Both assessments are per tonne of cargo, so the shift lands directly in the freight line of a CFR cargo1.
The week before had already lifted the same routes. C5 went from the low $12s to $14.15 to $14.25, and C3 from the low $31s to $34.00 to $34.50. The capesize 5TC rose from $30,518 to $34,380 over that week7.
Why capesize is up while the ore price is down
The Baltic's own commentary points to the Atlantic. South Brazil and West Africa to China gained "considerable traction" as fixing intensified, and with most end-November cargoes covered, attention moved to December dates1.
West African bauxite is the tonne-mile addition. Signal Ocean data show Guinean bauxite exports up 21% year to date. September global flows were 20.4 Mt, up 3% year on year, and arrivals in China reached 19.7 Mt, up over 21%8. Rio Tinto is also expanding Australian bauxite export capacity for larger capesizes, with a $1.9bn project adding 20m tonnes of annual capacity and first output targeted for 20299.
Simandou in Guinea is the next leg. Wood Mackenzie expects the iron ore project to export around 16 million tonnes in 2026, with an uneven ramp-up10. Vale chief executive Gustavo Pimenta told the FT Metals & Mining Summit in London in October that Simandou would mainly offset resource depletion. He put that depletion at 60 million to 80 million tons a year10.
Owners at last week's Maritime CEO Forum in Monaco went further. Splash247 reported that dry bulk could be approaching a "generational freight rate rally" as West African mineral exports transform tonne-mile demand. CTM chairman John Michael Radziwill argued that 2026 had exceeded expectations, and owners also flagged the rapid expansion of Chinese shipbuilding capacity11. That is one owner's view from a conference panel, not a consensus forecast.
Grain and petcoke are on a different market
The gains were capesize only. The panamax index fell 1.7% to 1,889, its lowest since 13 April, and the supramax index slipped 0.3% to 1,8652. The panamax 5TC declined steadily as tonnage outgrew cargo, and an 82,000-dwt ship fixed a transatlantic grains round trip at $17,5001. In the US Gulf, grains and petcoke stems were scarce, while a 63,000-dwt ship fixed grains to China via the Cape of Good Hope at $28,5001. The Baltic Dry Index still gained 2% over the week but is down more than 12% in October2.
Supply is the counterweight
BIMCO expects the dry bulk supply and demand balance to weaken gradually in 2027 and 2028. It forecasts demand growth of 0.5% to 2.5% against supply growth of 3% to 4%, with ship deliveries accelerating, particularly in capesize3.
Banchero Costa said shipbuilding has moved "from an ordering boom into a delivery wave". Bulkcarriers of 20,000 dwt and over have 1,449 ships and 145.3 million dwt on order, equal to 14.2% of the trading fleet12. Chinese yards hold 75% of the bulkcarrier and tanker orderbook12. Bulkcarriers still carry the smallest orderbook relative to their fleet among the main ship types, against 43.5% for containerships and 29.3% for crude tankers12. A capesize newbuilding was assessed at $79.0 million in September, up 3.9% on a year earlier12.
For buyers into India
India's power secretary ruled out a mandatory imported-coal blending requirement for power plants this year13. Daily coal supply to power stations rose to 2.5 Mt in the first ten days of October from 2.2 Mt in September, with rail loading up to 469 rakes a day from 42613. Adani Power said its landed imported coal cost rose around 50% year on year in the September quarter14. Bauxite arrivals into India fell 37.0% in September from a year earlier, the largest drop of any month in 2026, on adequate stocks and monsoon disruption8. The rupee traded at 94.95 to the dollar on 30 October15.
Metals Market Index said in its 29 October iron ore note that higher freight "calls for assessing costs against contracts and settlement conditions", and it kept a cautious, range-bound view on the market16.
What to watch
December cargo enquiry on C3 and C5 will show whether charterers are still short of ships1. Signal expects softer bauxite flows in the fourth quarter and reduced capesize tonne-mile demand, because Guinea's export quota is 150 Mt, 18% below 2025 levels8. BIMCO's delivery wave is the slower-moving threat to rates from 20273.