The US Maritime Administration has approved a deepwater port licence for Blue Marlin Offshore Port, a $1 billion crude export terminal planned about 99 miles off Cameron Parish, Louisiana1. Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy announced the approval on November 51.

The project is developed by an affiliate of Energy Transfer and is designed to load VLCCs, or very large crude carriers, at up to 2 million barrels a day1. Its maximum loading rate is 80,000 barrels an hour1. Crude would arrive by pipeline from the Nederland Terminal area in Texas and other inland hubs1.

MARAD says the offshore site keeps the largest tankers out of congested coastal waterways and could reduce collision risks1. The project will use existing and converted offshore platform infrastructure1.

It is the fourth deepwater port approved under the Trump administration, after the Texas GulfLink crude project, Delfin LNG and the $8.2 billion ST LNG project1. It is the second crude export project cleared since the January 2025 Unleashing American Energy order1. The Department of Transportation said the project would support up to 1,052 construction jobs1.

A permit is not a terminal

The approval came with no construction start date and no completion timeline1. Blue Marlin's initial application was submitted in October 2020, and the final environmental impact statement was completed earlier this year1. The Environmental Protection Agency proposed air permits for the facility only in October1.

Licences also come with conditions. For the ST LNG project, MARAD's approval required the developer to agree in writing not to change its application4. It also had to show compliance with nine conditions, covering financial responsibility, oil spill liability and decommissioning, at least 90 days before a licence could be issued4.

Gibson, the shipbroker, said in early October that of four proposed US deepwater crude terminals, only Sentinel Midstream's Texas GulfLink was progressing2. GulfLink was licensed in February 2026, began construction in May and targets a start-up in the fourth quarter of 20282. Enterprise's Sea Port Oil Terminal was licensed in 2024 but still has no positive final investment decision2. The Phillips 66 and Trafigura project Bluewater Texas was unlicensed and faced air permit issues2. Gibson described Blue Marlin as unlicensed at that time, with Energy Transfer shifting its focus to upstream investment, particularly in natural gas2.

That assessment is now out of date on the licence. It is still open on commercial backing, because Energy Transfer has set out no timeline or customers1, 2.

Freight decides the arbitrage

US crude exports peaked at around 5.2 million b/d in the second quarter, lifted by close to 1.3 million b/d of Strategic Petroleum Reserve releases2. They then fell back by around 1.5 million b/d to about 3.7 million b/d in the third quarter, according to Kpler data cited by Gibson2.

How that oil leaves the Gulf matters. VLCCs took around 50% of PADD 3 crude exports in May and June, fell below 30% in August and recovered to around 45% in September, while Aframaxes carried a substantial share2. That mix means VLCC cargoes depend on reverse lightering, where smaller ships load and transfer oil at sea2. Gibson said the US will remain reliant on reverse lightering for at least the next two years2.

The freight bill explains the recent drop in Asian buying. The US Gulf Coast to China VLCC rate was almost $60 million as of October 22, after touching $79.6 million earlier in the month5. That compares with an average below $8 million in the half decade before the conflict5. Randy Hawkins, Valero's head of oil trading, said refiners were effectively paying $30 to $35 to move each barrel to Asia5.

Vortexa put US Gulf to Ningbo VLCC freight at an average of $35 a barrel over October 1 to 25, six times the $5.80 a barrel of a year earlier3. Asian refinery orders for November US crude fell roughly 50% to 24 million to 26 million barrels5.

Buyers pay for certainty

East Asian refiners have not walked away. Platts assessed WTI Midland delivered to Yeosu at $34.60 a barrel over front-month Dubai on September 18, a record, and at $26.30 a barrel on October 266. Premiums have consistently exceeded $10 a barrel since the start of the second quarter6.

The premium buys reliability. A feedstock manager at a major Japanese refiner said a premium is warranted for cargoes that are nearly certain to be delivered on time6.

Japan took 384,330 b/d from North American suppliers in the first eight months, up 352% from 85,017 b/d a year earlier, according to METI data cited by Platts6. South Korea imported 144.22 million barrels of US crude from January to September, up 19.1%, and wants no single region to supply more than 50% of its crude by 20356.

The licensing change behind the run of approvals

The faster approvals come from a change in who leads the review. In January, MARAD became the lead agency for deepwater port reviews and the Coast Guard moved to a supporting role on vessel operations, maritime safety and security4. Responsibility for reviews under the Deepwater Port Act of 1974 was transferred from the Coast Guard to MARAD in early 20267.

The Department of Transportation said the ST LNG review finished nearly 3.7 years faster than the historical average, a 70% reduction4. MARAD completed the final environmental impact statement in 410 days4. A DOT spokesperson said the gain came from a single federal docket, one project team and aligned public comment periods, and that the project did not benefit from one-time exemptions4.

The LNG approvals follow the same pattern. ST LNG, the $8.2 billion project off Matagorda, Texas, won its record of decision in late October7. Its president, Alap Shah, told Reuters it expects a final investment decision by the end of next year and first commercial cargoes as early as mid-20307. The first unit needs about 2 million tonnes a year of long-term sales and purchase agreements7.

What to watch

  • First steel at Blue Marlin. No construction start has been announced1. GulfLink began construction in May after its February licence and targets a fourth-quarter 2028 start2.
  • A final investment decision, and where Energy Transfer puts its capital2.
  • Air permits, which the EPA proposed in October1.
  • Reverse lightering economics. The VLCC share of PADD 3 exports swings with Aframax availability and ship-to-ship logistics2.
  • Delivered premiums. WTI Midland delivered to Yeosu was assessed at $26.30 a barrel over Dubai on October 266.