The attack campaign on Gulf shipping widened again over the weekend. A projectile hit an Emirati-owned offshore tug near the Musandam Peninsula on Sunday, November 1, and two hit a tanker about 70 nautical miles east of Ras Al Khafji in Saudi Arabia overnight1. The two strikes came after a Qatari LNG carrier that Iran had cleared to sail was hit on Friday, October 30, close to its loading area1, 3.
UK Maritime Trade Operations reported the tug attack just after 1500 UTC on Sunday, northwest of Musandam1. Security consultancy Vanguard Tech named the vessel as the Selat Storm, an offshore tug of about 1,300 dwt that had just left Al Hamriyah in the UAE. It said the tug was reported to be "partially sinking"1. The status of its crew was not reported1.
Overnight, UKMTO reported a tanker hit by two projectiles about 70 nautical miles east of Ras Al Khafji, at the northwest end of the Arabian Gulf. All crew were accounted for1. The Maritime Executive said the strikes show Iran expanding its campaign further from the Strait of Hormuz, into areas less well defended by American forces1.
Five energy vessels since Thursday
The Maritime Executive said the tanker hit overnight was at least the fifth energy vessel struck by suspected Iranian attacks since Thursday1. The others, according to a list kept by Martin Kelly of EOS Risk Group, include the VLCC Arnazah, the Suezmax Riti and the Suezmax Louise 1, which was damaged by limpet mines1. The product tanker Stone was intercepted by the IRGC Navy and allowed to reverse course without damage1.
The LNG carrier Al Mayeda, struck on October 30, was another of the vessels hit1, 3. It is a Marshall Islands-flagged ship loaded with Qatari gas for customers in Pakistan1, 3. It had received safe-passage approval from Iranian officials hours before the attack, according to people with direct knowledge cited by Bloomberg1, 3. Its accommodations block was hit by an unknown projectile at about 1800 UTC. The strike was about 40 nautical miles south of Laval Island, near the Ras Laffan loading piers where the voyage began1, 3.
The ship turned around and headed into the Persian Gulf, and its AIS signal disappeared about two hours after the attack1, 3. Nakilat, the operator, said in a stock exchange filing that the ship is in "safe condition, operational"1. It also said the carrier remained operational and was being assessed3. All 25 crew, including six Indian nationals, were safe, India's shipping minister said3.
Qatar's foreign ministry said on November 1 that it "reserves its right to take all necessary measures" to protect its assets and safeguard its vessels and crews3. It said any action would be in line with international law and the UN Charter3. GCC Secretary General Jasem Mohamed Albudaiwi called the targeting of energy tankers a "dangerous escalation that undermines the security of the region"1.
The detail that matters for cargo owners is the approval. Pakistan negotiated with Iran for safe passage, and other shipments of Qatari LNG that it sought clearance for have crossed into the Gulf of Oman over the past month3. This one was struck anyway1, 3.
Rates stay extreme and cover is the swing item
Tanker earnings on Gulf routes remain at levels that dominate delivered costs. The TD3C route from the Middle East Gulf to China rose 48 points to WS1262.5, producing a round-trip TCE of $1,345,710 a day for a standard VLCC2. The TC1 75kt MEG/Japan index stood at WS1003, with a round-trip TCE of $288,700 a day2. The TC5 55kt MEG/Japan index was at WS1021, with $208,900 a day2.
Clean product rates from the Arabian Gulf to Japan have more than doubled since July, according to shipbroker Gibson. It pointed to tanker attacks, Gulf of Oman congestion and tight LR lists4. Those LR rates eased slightly in the final week of October4.
Insurance is the harder number to pin down. Bloomberg reported that the risk alone has inflated insurance costs, even with shipments through the strait at about 80% of prewar levels5. Qatar has sent LNG through Hormuz consistently since September, including on older vessels that help reduce the additional insurance costs of the voyage3.
On the container side, Maersk cut its Emergency Contingency Surcharge for shipments from Jebel Ali, Fujairah, Khor Fakkan and Sohar to West Africa by US$500 per container from November 1. That leaves US$3,450 for a 20-foot dry container and US$4,650 for a 40-foot dry container6.
Flows continue and the build-up continues
The market is still moving oil. Gulf national oil companies have assembled a fleet of nearly 230 tankers, about 80% of them VLCCs, tying up an estimated 15% to 20% of the global VLCC fleet, according to Windward7. Crude exports from terminals west of Hormuz ran at about 11 million barrels a day in October7. That compares with 1.56 million barrels a day in May and prewar volumes of 14.5 million barrels a day7.
Loading is uneven. Nine VLCCs took cargoes at Saudi Gulf export facilities on Wednesday, the highest since hostilities began8. In satellite images since mid-June the average has been two berths in use, and nearly one-third of images showed all berths empty8. Across 29 Middle East ports, 265 dry bulk vessels were waiting on October 28, 75% above last year9.
The risk picture is contested. A US official with direct knowledge told Bloomberg that Iran has not increased its volume of attacks, and that more serious damage has led to more incidents being flagged5. CENTCOM has said about 95% of ships transit the strait without incident5.
What would make it worse is a new round of strikes. President Trump has previewed renewed attacks on Iran after the midterm elections on November 35. Bloomberg Economics' Ziad Daoud wrote that a surge in fighting could push oil into a $120 to $130 range5. Brent spot was $123.1 a barrel on October 27, up 6.8% from a week earlier10.
The IMO counts 121 incidents in Hormuz and the wider region since the war began, with 24 confirmed seafarer deaths5. "As long as they want to have a blockade in place, they can continue to attack ships in the Strait of Hormuz," said John Miller5. He is a retired US Navy vice admiral and former head of CENTCOM5.