Iran's Persian Gulf Strait Authority (PGSA) almost doubled its non-compliance list to about 240 ships. It said all Sinokor vessels will be treated like blacklisted tonnage, with Kuwait Oil Tanker Co (KOTC) fleets also targeted, Seatrade Maritime News reported on 2 November1.
The same day, Brent crude futures fell $8.47, or 7.47%, to $104.96 a barrel by 1724 GMT, after touching a session low of $104.492. The benchmark had earlier dropped more than 6.5% to $105.55, its lowest since 16 October4.
Paper crude was being repriced for peace. The physical access regime in Hormuz was moving the other way1.
The 240 figure and the naming of the two fleets rest on Seatrade's report1. The text of a PGSA notice, and any full published list, did not appear in the material reviewed for this article1. Windward's September snapshot counted 77 blacklisted vessels, after three tranches released on August 24, September 2 and September 145. The count before the latest expansion is not given in the report reviewed here1.
What the list does
The PGSA opened in mid-May to oversee transits and toll payments through the strait5. Every vessel on its list had either used the "unauthorised" southern corridor through Omani waters or crossed Iran's northern corridor without paying tolls, Windward found5.
The criteria are broad. Any ship using the southern corridor could be listed, as could ships using the northern corridor with marine insurance linked to Western providers5.
Tankers made up 85% of the September list. Liberia-flagged ships were 38%, vessels owned or chartered by UAE-linked companies 40%, Greek operators 12% and South Korean operators 9%5.
Inclusion did not appear to stop ships trading5. Iran has also attacked vessels it says breached its transit rules, and the Revolutionary Guards have said two tankers exploded after striking mines on an "unauthorised route"6.
The commercial pressure runs through insurance. When it added ships on September 14, the PGSA named classification societies and marine insurers directly5. Nearly all but six of the 77 listed ships were assessed as having protection and indemnity cover with the International Group of 12 P&I clubs. Those clubs are barred from insuring ships that pay tolls to Iran5.
Freight is where the war is priced
Baltic Exchange assessments published on 1 November, the day before Monday's crude slide, show what a Gulf voyage still costs3. The TD3C route, 270,000 tonnes Middle East Gulf to China, stood at WS1262.5, a round-trip equivalent of $1,345,710 a day3. The TC1 clean products route (75kt Middle East Gulf to Japan) was at WS1003, a round-trip equivalent of $288,700 a day3. The TC17 MR route (35kt Middle East Gulf to East Africa) was at WS901 and $112,900 a day3.
Aaron Kildow, senior market strategist for global crude at Sparta, said much of the geopolitical risk in the conflict now shows up in freight rates rather than crude prices7. Crude loaded inside Hormuz trades $20 to $30 a barrel above cargoes at the lightering zone, a premium that compensates owners for the risk7. He said the freight cost of moving US crude to northwest Europe has gone from $1 to $2 a barrel to nearly $20 a barrel7. Braemar assessed the cost of loading from Oman to Asia at about $15 a barrel on 23 October8.
Bunker fuel did not follow crude either. The MABUX 380 HSFO index ended October at $778.42 a tonne and its VLSFO index at $913.07 a tonne, both up on September. MABUX expects a "firm but highly volatile" November9.
Compliant tonnage is the constraint
Sinokor is not a marginal name in this trade. Windward found it shipped 40% of all crude through Hormuz in July5. A South Korean shipowner that Windward identifies as Sinokor began buying and chartering VLCCs in December 2025 and runs more than 100 ships, about 70% of them in the Gulf producers' so-called Arab Dark Fleet8, 5. That fleet's shuttle runs tie up 15% to 20% of the global VLCC fleet at any one time8. Fearnleys analysis cited by Splash247 put Sinokor at one in four compliant VLCCs10.
KOTC is the tanker arm of state-owned Kuwait Petroleum Corporation, carrying crude, refined products and LPG11. Kuwaiti crude has been among the volumes using the southern corridor12.
Flows have recovered, but on a narrow base. Preliminary Vortexa data put crude exports loaded west of Hormuz, excluding Iran, at about 11 million barrels a day in October. That compares with 1.56 million barrels a day in May and 14.5 million barrels a day before the war8. AIS-visible transits were 55 between 16 and 23 September, against about 910 a week before the war12.
Talks: contacts, not a deal
Contacts through mediators are continuing after Iranian talks with Qatari mediators ended with altered proposals and no breakthrough, Tehran said on 2 November13. "We have presented our conditions and proposals and everything depends on the political rationality of Washington," foreign minister Abbas Araqchi said, according to the state media outlet IRNA13.
Iran's seven-step proposal is now condensed, which a foreign ministry spokesman said makes it possible to implement within two days13. Under the revised sequence, the United States would act on day one and shipping would resume on day two6. Tehran's demands include sanctions relief, release of frozen funds, restored oil waivers and recognition of a shipping route designated with Oman6. Qatar has been trying to negotiate the release of more than $6bn in Iranian assets4.
Iranian sources told Reuters they see a new US attack as more likely than a deal13. The US blockade of Iranian ports has redirected 144 commercial ships, US Central Command said6.
The checklist for charterers
Screen the ship, not just the owner. The September list skewed to UAE-linked owners and charterers, Greek operators and South Korean operators, so a fixture can put a compliant owner next to an exposed counterparty5.
Ask which corridor the vessel will use and whether tolls will be paid. P&I cover from International Group clubs is incompatible with toll payments to Iran5.
Ask about AIS. Most listed ships had run dark, and 35% had broadcast their position in the two days to 16 September5.
Price the shuttle, not the futures curve. Loading inside Hormuz carries a $20 to $30 a barrel premium to the lightering zone7.