US breakbulk imports of copper cathode are on track to exceed 230kt in October, a monthly record, Kpler data reported by Hellenic Shipping News show1. That tops the previous record of 198kt set in July, and follows more than 140kt in each of August and September1.
Count containerised and overland cargoes as well, and Kpler estimates the US imported more than 800kt in four months1. That is about what the country used to import in a full year before 20251.
The driver was price. The gap between London and New York copper averaged $500 a tonne between May and early August, and has since narrowed to a close1. Traders bought where metal was cheap and sold where it was expensive.
Africa became the swing supplier
Chile remains the main source of breakbulk cathode into the US1. The extra tonnes came from the Democratic Republic of Congo and, to a lesser extent, Zambia1. African ports shipped 243kt to the US from the start of July, against 97kt in the whole first half1.
Geography sets the delivery calendar. A ship from Angamos in Chile reaches the US East Coast in about three weeks1. Durban takes five, and recent cargoes from Dar es Salaam have taken close to seven1.
Loadings changed as the arbitrage closed. Tonnage still loads in Durban, but the larger shipments from Dar es Salaam and Walvis Bay have fallen to zero1. Kpler counts cargo on the water and cargo still to load, and forecasts 100kt of November breakbulk deliveries1. That is well below recent months, but above the roughly 80kt the US needs each month to balance supply and demand1.
China is now the short side
The same trade pulled metal away from China, the world's largest consumer1. Chinese imports of Chilean cathode have fallen to about 15kt a month from 48kt a month in 20241. Imports from Congo fell 30% year on year in the third quarter to 266kt, with August at just 69kt against a 110kt monthly average the year before1.
Seaborne copper concentrate imports are down 11% so far this year, and restrictions are hitting the availability of scrap1. The result shows in the Yangshan premium, which reached $205 a tonne on 28 October, its highest in more than a decade2. Kpler described the same $205 level as a record1.
Shanghai Futures Exchange stocks stand at 54kt, down from 433kt in March and half the level of a year earlier1. Chinese cathode imports usually run hotter in the fourth quarter, averaging 326kt a month over the past five years, 40kt above the rest of the year1.
The tariff verdict decides the next move
Refined copper was left out when President Donald Trump imposed a 50% Section 232 tariff on copper in July 20254. That duty covered 51 semi-finished products, including insulated conductors and pipe fittings4. The exemption for refined copper is under review3.
In June, a proclamation kept the 50% rate on semi-finished copper, lowered the domestic content threshold to 85% from 95%, and added products such as electrical conductors and cables from 8 June3.
The Commerce Secretary was due to recommend by 30 June whether to extend tariffs to refined copper3. The original proposal was 15% from January 2027, rising to 30% in 20283. On 5 November, Kpler still described the verdict as pending1.
A tariff with a long implementation window would re-open the arbitrage and pull more metal to the US1. Kpler says the window would need to run several months to trigger another rush like the one just seen1. ING said a confirmed phased 15% tariff would lift COMEX above the LME, with both benchmarks higher3.
No tariff would leave US stocks free to rejoin the global market1. Kpler expects metal to flow into LME warehouses in the US first1. Re-exports would need prices abroad, including local premiums, to beat the US price by enough to cover freight and financing1. ING called an outright rejection the most bearish case for prices3.
Stocks sit mostly in one country
Exchange-registered stock outside the US is 155kt, while US inventories exceed 897kt, Kpler says1. Kpler estimates total US inventory, including off-exchange metal, at 2 million tonnes once October arrivals are counted1. That is an estimate. If a tariff locked those stocks in, Kpler says they would cover US import needs at current levels for about two years1.
The LME's own data show 312,250 tonnes in its warehouses on 4 November, up from 232,175 tonnes on 19 October5. LME cash copper settled at $14,201 a tonne that day, with the three-month contract at $14,0955. Kpler's 155kt figure for exchange stock outside the US is lower than the LME's published total1, 5.
Prices remain near records. COMEX copper traded around $6.50 a pound on 2 November6, and the IMF copper benchmark averaged $14,473 a tonne in September, up 44.8% from a year earlier7. Chile, the largest producer, reported its lowest quarterly output in at least two decades in the third quarter6. ING forecasts a global deficit of about 35kt in 2026, whatever the tariff decision3.