Buyers negotiating 2027 air freight contracts face a market where the forwarder holds the stronger hand. DHL's full third-quarter results, published on 5 November, show why: the company moved more freight and lifted forwarding profit by a third while capacity stayed tight2, 1.
DHL Global Forwarding, the group's air and ocean arm, lifted revenue 23.4% to €5.64 billion and operating profit 32.7% to €259 million. Its operating margin improved to 4.6% from 4.3%2.
Forwarding outgrew the carriers
Air freight drove the quarter. Forwarding air revenue rose 30.4% to €1.5 billion and air gross profit 28.4% to €321 million, on volumes up 12% to 497,000 tonnes1. Ocean revenue rose 26.8% while ocean volumes grew 4.8%2.
The volume growth sets DHL apart from carriers that leaned on price. Maersk's loaded container volumes fell 0.8% to 3.37 million FFE, or 40-foot containers, while its average rate rose 46%6. Among forwarders, Kuehne+Nagel's air volumes rose 10% and DSV's fell 3%1.
Not all of DHL's air gain is market growth. Some volumes moved from forwarding into DHL Express as shippers chose speed and certainty, and express time-definite international shipment weight rose 9.7%1.
Asia is where the growth is coming from. DHL said ocean volumes rose mainly on shipments originating in Asia and Europe, and air volumes were helped by stronger demand on routes out of Asia2. It also credited the pass-through of cost and fuel inflation to customers for part of the forwarding revenue gain1.
Air: tight capacity reaches earnings
Express, which still earns about 60% of group profit7, raised operating profit 50% to €1.04 billion on revenue of about €7 billion2. DHL said capacity constraints in the air freight market added around €100 million to earnings1. It described those constraints as temporary2, and The Loadstar says the open question is how much of the momentum survives as tight air capacity eases7.
Rates show the pressure buyers face. TAC Index data put average Hong Kong to North America rates at $7.64 per kg in October, up 34% on a year earlier3. Rates ended the month at $8.17 per kg, 38.7% higher year on year3. Freightos put Far East to North America at $7.76 per kg, up 40% and close to the 2025 peak of $8.00 per kg5. Hong Kong to Europe averaged $5.31 per kg, up 15.7%3.
Airlines are pricing the same way. Lufthansa Cargo raised base yields 14% and overall yields 22% while its capacity grew 5%, and Lufthansa Group chief executive Carsten Spohr told analysts "pricing remained very strong"8. A forwarder told The Loadstar that capacity is extremely tight on the Far East to North America lane, while Asia to Europe rates have stabilised as Gulf carriers restore operations8.
Ocean: capacity returns, rates hold
Ocean capacity is coming back, but rates have not fallen yet. Drewry counted 53 containership transits through Suez in the week to 1 November, up 130% on the same week of 2025, with 60% of Asia-Europe capacity back on the route4. Even so, Asia to North Europe spot rates rose 10% and Asia to the Mediterranean 23% over the past month, to about $3,595 and $4,375 per FEU, or 40-foot container5.
DHL said it helped customers adapt transport routes as trade flows changed1. Maersk, which has moved services back to Suez, cut bunker consumption 6.3%6.
DHL kept the guidance it raised on 16 October: 2026 operating profit above €7 billion and free cash flow excluding acquisitions above €3.2 billion, with capital spending of about €3.6 billion2, 9. Supply Chain revenue rose 12% to €4.94 billion and EBIT 8.1% to €301 million2. New contracts there are up 42% this year, with data centres among the growth areas7. eCommerce was the weak spot, with revenue falling to €1.59 billion and EBIT to €51 million2.