Six in ten Asia-Europe container slots now use Suez, Drewry says

Drewry's Red Sea Diversion Tracker counted 53 containerships through the Suez Canal in either direction in the week ended 1 November, up 130% on the same week of 2025¹. The consultancy says 60% of Asia-Europe capacity now uses the Suez route, reversing nearly three years of diversions¹. There have now been five weeks with more than 50 container transits a week; the three-week average of 57 was 13% above the previous three weeks¹.

The Suez Canal Authority's own numbers point the same way. Container-ship tonnage through the canal was 54.2% higher in January to August 2026 than a year earlier, according to the authority³. Alphaliner had already put 63% of Far East-Europe capacity back on the Red Sea by 21 October⁶.

Evergreen will join its Ocean Alliance partners this week. Linerlytica says the carrier will send the 16,556 teu Ever Eon and Ever Edit eastbound through Suez on the Ocean Alliance NEU7/CES service on 7 and 11 November². The 20,124 teu Ever Gifted follows on the MD2 service on 16 November². Zim is the only major line still running Asia-Europe services round the Cape, according to Linerlytica².

97 days against 124, and fewer ships

For exporters, the change shows up in the booking. Chennai to Rotterdam now takes 23 to 24 days, against 34 to 36 days via the Cape, according to Ramu Shanmugam of the Tiruppur Exporters' Association³. Drewry puts a Suez round voyage at 21,878 nautical miles and 97 days, against 29,711 nautical miles and 124 days round the Cape, a saving of 7,833 nautical miles and 27 days³.

Drewry estimates that routing saves about $1 million per round voyage for a 24,000 teu ship, or roughly $43 per slot, before additional war-risk insurance costs³.

Shorter round trips also release ships. A weekly service with a 70-day round trip needs about ten vessels; at 63 days, nine could hold the same frequency, in an illustrative calculation by Container News⁷. The Premier Alliance's MD1 will turn in 84 days with 12 ships of 11,700 to 14,000 teu, against 16 ships on its Cape rotation².

Rotations matter as much as headlines. Alphaliner found some services transiting Suez outbound to Europe but returning round the Cape, which changes the box's round trip even if the carrier advertises a Suez service⁶. All vessels on Gemini's ME1/IOS loop are operated by Hapag-Lloyd, which industry observers believe points to a wider shift in the carrier's risk assessment of the Red Sea⁸.

Spot rates rose. The weekly data did not.

Freightos says Asia to North Europe rates rose about 10% and Asia to the Mediterranean about 23% over the past month, to about $3,595 and $4,375 per FEU⁴. The weekly benchmarks are flatter. Drewry's World Container Index fell 3% to $4,429 per 40-foot container in its 29 October assessment, with Shanghai-Rotterdam up 1% to $3,686 and Shanghai-Genoa unchanged at $4,151⁵. NYFI's Asia-North Europe lane rose 5.40% to $3,203.78⁵.

Freightos said congestion at North European hubs and backlogs in the Far East may be adding upward pressure. Carriers also planned general rate increases of $1,000 to $1,500 per FEU from 1 November⁴. Some forwarders doubt the market will support them⁴. The Loadstar reported that the 1 November hikes failed to gain traction and that further rate declines were expected in the coming weeks². Drewry questioned whether the November FAK increases could be sustained with capacity available and demand weak⁵.

So the monthly spot figure is not evidence that the Suez return is pushing rates up. The analysts who follow the trade read the same capacity as a reason for rates to fall².

Surcharges to rebuild, clauses to write

Carriers are still adding charges. CMA CGM will introduce a $35 per TEU war-risk surcharge on Black Sea cargo from 9 November, and it charges $150 per TEU on dangerous goods moving to Jeddah and Port Sudan⁹. Those charges are separate from bunker, terminal handling and security fees⁹. The carrier's new war-risk line is for the Black Sea, so it does not answer the question of what happens to Red Sea war-risk charges when a service moves to Suez.

Fuel is the next line to test. VLSFO in Singapore was $881 a tonne, up 97% on a year earlier, and fuel savings were part of the reason carriers returned to Suez⁶. A shorter voyage burns less fuel, so the bunker adjustment factor should fall with the distance. The emissions cost per box should also be recalculated: a Loadstar comparison notes that small, part-loaded ships at 18 knots emit more CO2 per box than a Suez ultra-large container vessel¹⁰.

Then the contract. Maersk expects all its services back on Suez by March 2027¹¹. Linerlytica expects all three alliances and MSC to be fully back by the first quarter of 2027². A 2027 rate priced on Suez needs a written answer on what happens if the service goes back round the Cape.

The security question is not closed

The Houthis said on 27 October that they had repelled an advance by Saudi-backed forces near the Bab el-Mandeb Strait and had hit Saudi Arabia's Ras Tanura refinery¹². The fighting has shattered a 2022 UN-brokered truce between the Saudi-led coalition and the Houthis¹².

Carriers describe their decisions as conditional. HMM said the move was agreed "from a Premier Alliance perspective, following a comprehensive review of market conditions and safety aspects"². Gemini said vessel, crew and cargo safety will determine later adjustments, and a new diversion could force longer voyages, changed departure schedules or extra ships⁷.

Zim's choice to stay on the Cape, which The Loadstar said may be due to its nationality, shows the split is not only about cost². A re-diversion would hit schedule reliability first, because the longer voyage absorbs ships that are already committed to a weekly frequency⁷.

What to watch

Drewry updates its tracker every other week¹. The next tests are whether the November rate increases hold and whether December bookings tighten before a Lunar New Year that starts on 6 February, 11 days earlier than this year¹³. Watch, too, whether the remaining Cape capacity follows Evergreen through Suez.