Commodity prices will rise 23% in 2026 and fall only about 7% in 2027, the World Bank said in its twice-yearly Commodity Markets Outlook on 28 October1. For a buyer writing 2027 budgets now, next year brings a partial retreat, not a return to 2025 costs1.
The retreat is uneven. The bank expects metals to fall 3% in 2027 while food prices rise another 7%1.
| Commodity group | 2026 | 2027 |
|---|---|---|
| All commodities | +23% | -7% |
| Energy | +32% | moderating, no figure given |
| Metals | +25% | -3% |
| Precious metals | +40% | moderating, more than three times 2015-19 average |
| Food | +10% | +7% |
| Fertiliser | +14% | back to 2025 levels |
All figures are from the World Bank's October 2026 Commodity Markets Outlook1. The release quotes dollar prices and gives no separate inflation-adjusted series1. The forecasts assume no major intensification of the conflicts now disrupting supply1.
What the Brent number really means
The bank expects Brent to average $91 a barrel in 2026, up from $69 in 2025, then ease to $79 in 20271. Reuters, summarising the same report, put the 2026 average at $924.
These are annual averages. Brent spot was $123.10 a barrel on 27 October, up 100.7% since the start of the year2. Brent was $61.35 on 31 December 2025 and touched a 52-week low of $59.93 on 16 December 20252. A 2026 average of about $91 is therefore a blend of a cheaper first part of the year and a costlier second half, not a forecast for today's price1, 2.
The same applies to the $79 figure. It covers all of 2027 and assumes the Middle East war and damage to Russian oil infrastructure do not worsen1. In the bank's adverse case, Brent averages $105 in 2027 and food prices run 12% above the baseline, past their 2022 level1.
What is already moving
Spot markets are well above those averages. US on-highway diesel was $6.352 a gallon on 26 October, up 81.5% since the start of the year5. Copper was $14,473 a tonne in September, up 44.8% in a year and a 52-week high6. Aluminium was $3,283 a tonne, up 23.7%, though below its May peak of $3,6587. Wheat was $246.85 a tonne, up 59.1%8.
Not everything is rising. Iron ore was $100.44 a dry tonne in September, down 5.6% from a year earlier9. US producer prices for iron and steel were up 20.7% over the same period10.
India's import bill shows the energy side first. The Indian basket averaged $120.46 a barrel to 26 October, the highest in 14 years11. ICRA estimates that a $10 a barrel rise in crude adds $12 billion to $13 billion to net oil imports and widens the current account deficit by 0.3% of GDP11.
The currency adds a second layer. The rupee was 95.22 to the dollar on 28 October, 6% weaker than at the end of 20253. A dollar price that does not move at all still costs more in rupees. With copper at $14,473 a tonne6 or aluminium at $3,2837, the rupee cost rises with the exchange rate even when the dollar quote is flat. Hedging the currency is a separate decision from fixing the commodity price3.
Five things for your 2027 contracts
- Do not budget for relief. The 7% fall is an average across groups. Food rises 7%, and fertiliser only returns to its 2025 level1.
- Tie each escalator to its own index. A clause linked to a broad commodity index will not track a basket heavy in food or metals1.
- Expect fertiliser and food relief late. The bank sees fertiliser giving back its 14% rise only in 20271. India's urea imports rose 40.5% in April to September from a year earlier12, so the import exposure is current.
- Fix the currency alongside the price. The rupee is 6% weaker than at the end of 20253, and crude near $120 is already testing it11.
- Stress test the adverse case. Brent at $105 in 2027 and food 12% above the baseline would sit well above any budget built on the base case1.