On 6 November, Container News reported that Maersk is close to ordering 12 container ships of 24,000 TEU, with options on 12 more, citing DynaLiners1. If every option is taken, the contract would cover 24 ships and about 576,000 TEU1.
No shipyard, contract value or delivery schedule has been confirmed1. The report sits next to Maersk's confirmed order for 26 LNG dual-fuel ships of 18,600 TEU, disclosed in its third-quarter report, which total 483,600 TEU and deliver in 2029 and 20305.
The same day, Container News reported that MSC had ordered three 21,700 TEU LNG dual-fuel ships at Shanghai Waigaoqiao Shipbuilding2. Each is priced at about $210 million, with delivery in March, July and November 20292. That report also cited DynaLiners and is unconfirmed. It would lift MSC's newbuilding programme at the yard to 13 vessels2.
Alphaliner said Maersk was talking only to Chinese yards6. It put the price of 24,000 TEU tonnage at around $240 million a ship, and said the container orderbook could near 16 million TEU by the end of 20266. Banchero Costa counted 51 vessels ordered across all sectors in a single week7.
An orderbook waiting on yards
The orders land on a book that is already large. Drewry puts the global container fleet at 34 million TEU, which makes an orderbook of close to 16 million TEU equal to about 45% of the fleet6. About 4.9 million TEU has been ordered this year alone6.
Shipyards, not shipowners, set the pace. Danish Ship Finance's latest Shipping Market Review says the global orderbook has expanded three and a half times since 2020, while yard capacity has grown by just 30%3. Order cover, the years of work booked at current output, has jumped from 1.4 years in 2020, and the review points to a delivery squeeze over the next two years3.
Clarksons Research put the global shipbuilding backlog at 226.1 million compensated gross tonnes (cgt, a measure of build work) in October, above the September 2008 record of 225.5 million8. It expects yards to pass their previous production peak in 2027 and to lift output again in 20288.
BIMCO's Niels Rasmussen said Chinese yards are scheduled to hand over a record 44.0 million cgt in 20289. That is close to twice their 2025 output of 22.7 million cgt9. He said China's backlogs would take four years to clear at current capacity, with many ships due in 2027 and 20289.
That is why most of this week's orders are not 2027 supply. Maersk's 26 ships arrive in 2029 and 20305, PIL's seven 1,400 TEU feeders in 2029 and 203010, Samudera's two 3,000 TEU ships by 203011, and T.S. Lines' two 11,000 TEU ships in 203012.
The rate case is already weakening
Freight prices are falling into that supply. Drewry's World Container Index fell 1% to $4,389 per 40ft container in the week to 5 November13. Shanghai to Rotterdam dropped 2% to $3,615 and Shanghai to New York 3% to $9,303, while Shanghai to Los Angeles held at $7,53913.
Drewry counted 60% of Asia-Europe capacity on the Suez Canal route, with 53 container ship transits in the week13. Three blank sailings are announced for next week against five this week13.
Xeneta forecasts a 30% fall in the global average spot rate in 2027 and a 5% fall in long-term contract rates, both against a third-quarter 2026 baseline4. It expects demand growth of 2.5% to 4%, fleet growth of 6.8%, deliveries of 2.9 million TEU and demolition of 0.5 million TEU next year4.
Peter Sand, Xeneta's chief analyst, said: "Supply growth will outrun demand in 2027"4. He warned that market fundamentals are easily overpowered by major supply chain shocks4.
Charter markets are still tight and are being priced further out. Braemar's charter index stood at 325.8, up 21% on the year and the highest since autumn 202214. The broker described a 2028 delivery wave the size of the 2002 fleet, and counted 94 fixtures for about 570,000 TEU of newbuildings due in 202814.
Braemar analyst Jonathan Roach said: "Charterers are queuing today. By 2028, owners may be the ones in the queue"14.
Feeders and ports feel it first
Intermodal put the six to 12 month charter rate for a 1,700 TEU geared feeder at about $33,750 a day15. That is up 19% year on year and more than double the 2023 level15. The feeder orderbook is about 1.05 million TEU across 635 ships, almost 20% of the existing fleet, with 42% of that capacity due in 2027 and 34% in 202815.
Demolition is not absorbing the old ships. Intermodal said scrapping remains negligible even though 30% of feeder capacity is at least 20 years old, and it expects fleet growth of about 6% next year15. Braemar found ships of 20 years or more took 30% of fixtures this year14.
Routing will change with the bigger ships. Gemini partners Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd need tonnage for a hub-and-spoke model15. Maersk fixed a 2,442 TEU ship for two years at $26,500 a day, and Hapag-Lloyd a 1,930 TEU ship for three years at $21,250 a day15. Fousekis said restoring direct mainline calls at ports such as Jeddah could "render some relay services, established during the Cape diversion, redundant"15.
Drewry warned that a faster return to Suez could bring overlapping arrivals from the Suez and Cape routes, raising the risk of vessel bunching and cargo congestion at European ports13.
Not the same wave as tankers
Tanker ordering is running hot too, but on a different cycle. S&P Global Energy CERA expects tanker capacity to rise from 703.72 million deadweight tonnes at the end of 2025 to 862.98 million in 2029, cumulative growth of 22.6%16. CERA said the harder period is 2028 and 2029, when VLCC and Suezmax deliveries become exceptionally large, and that "demand must work much harder to absorb supply"16.