Boxship orderbook at highest since 2009 as Suez return nears

MSC has reportedly booked 20 more ships of 24,000 TEU each at Hengli Heavy in China, adding 480,000 TEU of capacity, according to Linerlytica¹. The order takes MSC's programme of vessels above 20,000 TEU at the yard to 62 ships¹.

The same consultancy put the global containership orderbook at 16.2 million TEU, equal to 46.5% of the existing fleet and the highest ratio since 2009¹. JOC reported the same 46.5% figure⁴.

HMM added its own order: eight 13,000-TEU LNG dual-fuel ships at HD Hyundai. HD Hyundai put the contract at 1.9196 trillion won ($1.42 billion) and said delivery was planned by 2029⁵. Linerlytica reported deliveries starting in 2029¹. Six ships will be built at HD Hyundai Samho and two at HD Hyundai Heavy Industries¹.

Both orders landed as carriers moved back to the Suez Canal. Alphaliner found vessels on 24 of the 46 direct Far East-Europe services transiting the Red Sea, 63% of deployed capacity on the trade².

Two supply shocks, arriving on different clocks

For 2027 contract talks, the timing matters more than the headline.

MSC has not disclosed delivery dates, contract value or propulsion for the new batch¹. HMM's ships start delivering in 2029¹. Other business reported this week fits the pattern: 14,000-TEU ships for December 2029 and 3,200-TEU ships for 2028⁶.

The capacity that changes the 2027 market is the canal. A Suez transit replaces the Cape route, so the same fleet carries more cargo with the same number of ships⁷. Freightos said a completed Red Sea return would increase overcapacity risk for carriers in 2027⁷.

The return is well advanced. Maersk told the Suez Canal Authority it expects all its services back through the canal by March 2027⁸. Its transits rose to 276 vessels in January to September, from 146 a year earlier⁸. Gemini expects nearly all its services back on Suez in the first quarter of 2027⁹, the same quarter Freightos points to for a full recovery⁷.

Not everyone measures the return the same way. Alphaliner's 63% covers Far East-Europe capacity². Analyst Lars Jensen estimated Suez routing had returned to roughly 30% to 35% of normal across the whole market⁹. The gap reflects different bases: one trade against the entire fleet.

What India actually gets

One of this week's orders has a stated India role. HMM will deploy its 13,000-TEU ships on its Far East-India-Mediterranean service¹.

That is the size Indian importers and exporters should plan around. MSC gave no route details for its new batch, and its 24,000-TEU ships are far larger than the tonnage HMM has earmarked for India¹. The practical read: more competition among mid-size ships, not megamax arrivals on Indian routes.

HMM also bought four feeder ships, three of 2,800 TEU and one of 1,700 TEU, through resale agreements¹. Feeder capacity matters on India-Gulf legs, where berthing delays at Fujairah and Khor Fakkan have strained services¹⁰.

The rate picture before talks

Drewry's World Container Index rose 3% to $4,485 per 40ft container on 15 October, led by Asia-Europe³. Shanghai to Rotterdam rose 6% to $3,522, ending 13 consecutive weeks of declines, and Shanghai to Genoa rose 7% to $3,945³.

Freightos showed the same turn: Asia-North Europe rose 6% to $3,442 per FEU and Asia-Mediterranean rose 3% to $3,927⁷. Transpacific rates were steady at $8,126 per FEU to the US West Coast, while the East Coast rose 1% to $9,700⁷.

Both indices quote Shanghai-origin or Asia-origin lanes, and neither publishes India lanes^3, 7. Indian buyers should take the direction, not the level, from these numbers.

Carriers are trying to lift Asia-Europe FAK rates to $4,500 to $4,800 per 40ft from 19 October³. Drewry said implementation is uncertain because the Suez return is adding capacity³. It counted two blank sailings on Asia-Europe for next week, down from six this week, which points to more effective capacity rather than less³.

What is holding rates up

Three offsets keep 2027 from being a clean oversupply story.

Fuel. VLSFO was $881 a tonne in Singapore, up 97% on a year earlier². Carriers cite fuel savings as one reason to use Suez².

Risk. Iran has stepped up attacks near Hormuz, and a Dubai-linked container ship was sunk last week⁷. India-Gulf services face longer berthing delays at Fujairah and Khor Fakkan and strained feeder capacity¹⁰. Several carriers keep some services on the Cape route as a hedge².

Scrapping. Demolition remains at basement levels¹¹, so scrapping is removing little capacity.

What to do now

• Split the volume. Fix a core share on an annual rate and put the rest on a shorter tenor or an index, so a Suez-driven fall passes through.
• Price bunker and war risk as separate, auditable lines with review dates. Spot rates are being set while attacks continue, so a single all-in number hides where the risk sits⁷.
• Ask which service and which ship size your cargo will actually get. HMM's India link is 13,000 TEU, and MSC has published no India deployment¹.
• Write in a routing clause covering Suez or Cape, transit time and who bears the difference².
• Set trigger points: a completed Suez return in the first quarter of 2027, a new Hormuz escalation, and delivery updates from MSC and HMM^7, 8, 1.

The balance of published forecasts now points to softer rates through 2027, but the timing and severity are contested^12, 7. Buyers who lock everything at today's level are betting against the canal.