Container lines are entering the 2027 contract season with more capacity at sea than in any previous winter. Sea-Intelligence said average weekly deployed capacity passed 350,000 TEU on Asia-North Europe and 260,000 TEU on Asia-Mediterranean in October and November, instead of tapering after Golden Week1.
The transpacific is at similar extremes. Asia to the US West Coast reached nearly 393,000 TEU a week in October and is set to average 400,000 in November. Asia to the US East Coast is at its highest level for any year1.
Record capacity, but not all of it is new supply
Sea-Intelligence links much of the increase to vessel bunching. Ships due to leave Asia in the third quarter were delayed by port congestion and poor reliability, then sailed alongside later departures in October and November1, 5.
The seasonal shift is stark. In 2012-19, Golden Week capacity fell 6% to 21% on these four lanes. This year it rose 18% on Asia-Mediterranean, 15% on Asia-US East Coast and 4% on the other two, against the rest of the third quarter5.
Sea-Intelligence said carriers had not abandoned capacity management. Their networks were too congested to execute it5. Vessel delays have absorbed about 3m TEU of global capacity, or 8.5% of the total, against a 2011-19 average of 2.2%6.
Drewry counted four blanked sailings on Asia-Europe for the week after 30 October, down from eight, and six on the transpacific, up from five2. Schedule reliability was 50.6% in September, and late vessels arrived 6.65 days behind schedule on average7.
Spot rates fall while surcharges rise
Drewry's World Container Index fell 3% to $4,429 per 40ft in the week to 29 October. Shanghai-Los Angeles dropped 6% to $7,514 and Shanghai-New York 5% to $9,6312. Freightos put Asia-North Europe up 3% at $3,551 per FEU and Asia-Mediterranean up 8% at $4,2528. Drewry cited the US National Retail Federation's forecast that US ocean imports will fall 11% month on month in November2.
Carriers are still trying to lift prices. A general rate increase of $2,000 to $3,000 per 40ft was due on 1 November, but Linerlytica said "The 1 November rate hike is effectively doomed". It noted Hapag-Lloyd quoting $3,000 to $3,200 per 40ft and Maersk $3,200 to $3,400, with MSC, Ocean Alliance and Premier Alliance at $3,400 to $3,5003. MSC has set a higher FAK level of $4,600 per 40ft to North Europe for 15 November, and CMA CGM $5,500 to the west Mediterranean3.
Surcharges are the other lever, and they land on contract cargo. From 23 October, Maersk charges a peak season surcharge from the Indian Subcontinent, including India, to the US and Canada. It is $3,400 per container to the West Coast, $5,150 to the East and Gulf coasts except Houston, and $5,700 to Houston4.
CMA CGM added a $100 congestion surcharge at Beira from 15 November9. It also filed a $300 overweight surcharge from China to Indian Ocean destinations from 1 November9. Maersk set a $300 per 20-foot and $600 per 40-foot reefer surcharge to Tema from 16 November10.
Not every charge sticks: Maersk cut 40-foot and 45-foot peak season surcharges on Europe to South Africa to zero from 29 October11.
Surcharges sit on top of the base ocean rate and can fall outside spot bookings, so they apply to contract cargo that is not repriced every week10. Published index levels do not capture the full bill.
The Red Sea is putting capacity back
Alphaliner found 24 of 46 direct Asia-Europe services using the Suez Canal, equal to 63% of deployed capacity. The share was 70% on Mediterranean routes and 58% on North Europe routes12.
Gemini, the Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd partnership, expects nearly all its services to return to Suez in the first quarter of 202713.
Shorter voyages release effective capacity from the same fleet13. The orderbook points the same way. Linerlytica puts it at 16.2m TEU, or 46.5% of the active fleet, the highest since 200914. Drewry puts the current fleet at 34m TEU, making the orderbook about 45% of it, and 4.9m TEU was ordered this year alone15.
The IMF projects world trade volume growth slowing to 4.7% in 2027 from 5.0% in 2025, and import demand in advanced economies easing to 4.2% from 5.0% in 202616. Vespucci Maritime's Lars Jensen called the outlook "a regular run-of-the-mill cyclical downturn", not a crash15.
Where the risk sits for Indian shippers
The main published indices do not cover India-origin lanes: Drewry's WCI tracks eight lanes, all from Shanghai2. Trade press data show the direction. Spot rates from India to the US East Coast fell by up to $3,000 per FEU in two to three weeks, the Journal of Commerce reported17. India to Europe booking rates have halved from their August highs, held up by unchanged or only slightly lower westbound allocations18.
On India-Europe, returning Suez capacity and the expected India-EU free trade agreement point to more volume and shorter transits. The pact is due to be signed by the end of this year and implemented next year19, 8. The risk sits less in the base rate than in service: blank sailings, rollovers and surcharges.
On India-US, the surcharge layer is unusually large. Maersk's $5,150 per container to the East Coast sits on top of the base rate4. Carriers will keep testing general rate increases as spot prices slide3.
A buyer's playbook for 2027
Lock the base and cap the extras. Negotiate an all-in rate that names every surcharge, with a cap and a notice period for new ones4.
Split the book. Fix the volume you can forecast on India-Europe, where capacity is returning and booking rates have corrected18, 12. Leave seasonal overflow, and lanes where spot is falling, on the spot market2, 17.
Write in blank-sailing protection. Require notice of omitted sailings, automatic rollover to the next available vessel at the contracted rate, and no re-rating3, 2.
Ask for space, not just volume. Per-sailing allocation and equipment commitments matter when reliability is 50.6% and average delays are 6.65 days7.
Use the calendar. Lunar New Year falls on 6 February 2027, 11 days earlier than in 2026, and Seko recommends booking four weeks ahead6. January cargo without space cover is the likeliest place to lose money in this cycle.