The Graham Act pause has no expiry date and no notice to importers

On 21 October the Federal Register published Executive Order 14436, signed on 16 October, which switches off the duties created by the Lindsey O. Graham Sanctioning Russia and Iran Act of 2026¹. The duty that mattered most for India was 100% ad valorem on goods from the five largest importers of Russian crude oil and natural gas¹. India is one of the two biggest buyers, with China². That 100% is now on hold.

The relief is being described with a number that is not in the text. DLN Sastri is a former director of oil refining and marketing at the Federation of Indian Petroleum Industry. He told Platts: "As of now, it is a sixty-day pause only." He said the next signal would come from talks among the United States, Ukraine and Russia⁶.

The waiver has no end date

Section 4(d) keeps the waivers in force until the President or the Secretary of State, in consultation with the Treasury and the US Trade Representative, decides that further action is appropriate¹. There is no expiry date, no renewal requirement and no notice to importers before the duties return. Container News noted that the administration "retains the authority to reconsider the waiver"⁷.

The dated element sits on the diesel side. A Treasury general licence lets Russian diesel into the US until April 2027, and Representative Gregory Meeks has introduced a bill to revoke it⁸. The Maritime Executive described a "six-month waiver only for diesel" alongside the order that suspended the tariffs⁹.

Only the waiver has no clock. The statute beneath it does. A country qualifies if it was among the five largest importers of Russian crude or gas by volume in the 12 months before enactment, and knowingly makes new purchases from 18 October³. Every 180 days the USTR must reassess which countries are the five largest importers of each, and apply the duty to goods from those on the list³. The rate is not fixed either. The USTR can set it to any value above zero and up to 100%. Before doing so it must send Congress a written determination that the country has taken significant steps to increase, or to cut or stop, its Russian crude or gas purchases³. Congress also gets the method and reasoning at least 10 days before any duty or change³.

Both duty increases are subject to the exceptions in section 114 of the Act, which cover humanitarian cases, civilian nuclear work and wind-down of operations in Russia, among others^1, 10. There is also a carve-out for gas. A country qualifies only if its Russian gas imports were less than 15% of Russia's total gas exports in the year before enactment. It must also have taken significant steps to reduce them³.

What a reversal adds to landed cost

The order is explicit about stacking. The increases apply in addition to any other duty. The order names Title VII anti-dumping and countervailing duties, sections 122, 201 and 301 of the Trade Act of 1974, and section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act¹. A revived 100% would land on top of whatever Indian goods already pay.

A Section 301 duty tied to forced labour has been in force since 24 July 2026. It adds 10% or 12.5% depending on the country of origin, and covers roughly 60 economies including India, according to a SupplyChainBrain commentary by Tony Nogueras¹¹. A separate Section 301 investigation into excess manufacturing capacity, which includes India, is still open¹².

The reciprocal layer is unsettled. India and the US agreed a framework in February that would have cut reciprocal tariffs from 25% to 18%, but it has not been signed¹³. Court challenges then undermined the reciprocal tariffs. GTRI's Ajay Srivastava said the value of the US offer became unclear once that regime was struck down¹³. ET reported that Indian goods exports to the US rose 21% in August to $8.3 billion, compared with August last year, when India faced 50% tariffs¹³.

What the order does not say is how a reversal would treat goods already on the water. It sets no notice period and no transit rule, and the trigger is the country's purchases rather than the individual shipment^1, 3.

What exporters and Delhi are saying

Industry groups welcomed the relief and flagged its conditionality. FIEO director general Ajay Sahai said it "averts a major risk to India's exports". He said it should lift buyer confidence in textiles, leather, gems and jewellery, and engineering goods, though the waiver remains reviewable⁵. FICCI secretary general Anant Swarup said a waiver "can be modified or withdrawn at short notice" and does not give "the durable predictability that businesses need for long-term planning"⁵.

GTRI's Srivastava said: "For India, the waiver buys time but offers no lasting certainty," and warned against trading permanent concessions for temporary relief⁴.

The timing mattered for the Christmas season. Tiruppur knitwear exporter R Gopalakrishnan said US buyers had been pressing for faster shipments. His company's US share of business has fallen from 85% to 40% in 15 months, and he does not plan to reverse that¹⁴. BusinessLine, citing sources tracking the matter, said India's position on crude sourcing remains guided by national interest and energy security¹⁵.

What to watch

• USTR monitoring. The order tells the USTR to monitor Russian energy purchases and to inform the President promptly of anything that might need further action, including on the waivers¹.
• A determination. One decision by the President or the Secretary of State ends the relief¹.
• The statutory cycle. Every 180 days the USTR reassesses the five largest importers and can reset the rate, with 10 days' notice to Congress³.
• The trade deal. Trump told reporters the two countries were "pretty close"¹⁶. A deal would reset the reciprocal tariff line. It would not repeal the Graham Act, whose duties are switched off by waiver, not removed^1, 3.
• Russian crude volumes. Russian crude discharges into India were 1.64 million barrels a day in September, S&P Global Commodities at Sea data show. That is down from a peak of 2.43 million b/d in June⁶. GTRI said Russia's share of India's oil imports fell from 51% in July to 44% in August⁴.
• The fuel-price politics. The first Russian diesel cargo for the US sailed on 23 October⁹. US diesel averaged over $6 per gallon and the midterm elections are on 3 November⁹.