India imported a record 1.1 million tonnes of soybeans in the marketing year ended September 30, against about 2,000 tonnes a year earlier. The figure comes from the Soybean Processors Association of India (SOPA), which released it on October 281. Mills bought overseas because domestic prices had rallied, the trade body said1. Soymeal exports halved to 1 million tonnes in the same year1.
Niger was the largest supplier, with shipments of more than 430,000 tonnes in the year, according to traders' estimates cited in the report4. India allows soybean imports only of non-GM beans. That limits supply to a handful of African countries, including Benin, Niger, Togo and Nigeria, where non-GM beans carry a steep premium over GM varieties1.
A zero-duty request, and a counter-request
The All-India Poultry Breeders Association has asked the government to allow 30 lakh tonnes of GM soymeal at zero duty2. It also wants zero-duty imports of non-GM soybeans extended to all African countries, rather than only the least developed ones, as at present2.
SOPA has asked the government to reject both. In a representation to Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal, reported on October 27, it said domestic supply is adequate and that duty-free imports would depress prices and hurt farmer incomes2.
A GM soymeal shipment would also need a biosafety clearance from the environment ministry's Genetic Engineering Appraisal Committee, which has given one-time approvals for GM soybean oil in the past5. The poultry industry has faced unclear GM soymeal import rules before5. Neither side's statement gives a date for a decision2.
The supply numbers both sides are arguing over
SOPA estimates soymeal availability for the 2026-27 oil year at 81.72 lakh tonnes against demand of 80 lakh tonnes. That leaves a carry-forward of 1.72 lakh tonnes on September 30, 20272. It adds closing soybean stocks of 8.82 lakh tonnes, about 7 lakh tonnes in meal terms, and calls the effective buffer close to 9 lakh tonnes2.
Those figures assume soymeal exports stay weak and the record imports are already counted, SOPA said2. Its poultry and aqua demand figure of 62.43 lakh tonnes is net of DDGS substitution2.
The crop number is the weak link. SOPA's first estimate, released at an Indore conclave on October 17, put 2026 kharif output at 107.93 lakh tonnes, down 2.11% from 110.25 lakh tonnes despite 5% more sown area6. Maharashtra output was seen down 33% at 34.9 lakh tonnes, and Karnataka 44% lower at 2.1 lakh tonnes6.
Others are further apart. SOPA's representation cites 107.90 lakh tonnes and puts trade estimates at 95 lakh to 100 lakh tonnes2. The livestock feed body CLFMA estimates 124.06 lakh tonnes, 3.52% below the government's kharif 2025 estimate of 128.59 lakh tonnes3. CLFMA also sees maize output down 16.75% at 232.09 lakh tonnes3.
What it means for a feed bill
SOPA says the current price rise is thin on fundamentals. Domestic soybean prices went past Rs 7,500 per quintal earlier this year and then fell back, it said2. "The current price movement is more sentimental than fundamental," SOPA said2.
World prices point the other way. The most-active CBOT soybean contract fell 1.2% to $12.41-1/4 a bushel on October 26, a two-month low, as a record US harvest reached the market7. A weaker Brazilian real also pulled Chicago futures lower on October 268. Platts assessed SOYBEX FOB Santos at $521.23 a tonne on October 238.
For a buyer, the two outcomes differ by the duty and by the non-GM origin premium. Zero-duty GM soymeal would be priced off world values. Non-GM African beans already carry a steep premium, and that is the cost mills accepted to keep crushing through the domestic rally1. SOPA's statement does not put a rupee figure on the difference, and argues that the domestic price does not justify imports2.
The paperwork risk in African bean purchases
Customs are investigating soybean cargoes declared as Niger-origin, on suspicion the beans came from Nigeria and were relabelled to evade import tariffs1. Clearance of some Niger-declared cargoes was withheld because importers could not show documents proving the beans were sourced there9.
The gap between declared and actual origin shows in the data. Niger was the biggest declared supplier in the first seven months of the year even though it produces no significant quantity of soybeans9. About 11,000 tonnes of Niger-origin soybeans bound for India were diverted to other Asian markets and sold at steep discounts9.
The dispute is spilling into trade flows. Reuters reported that Indian traders cancelled 25,000 tonnes of soymeal export contracts, and that African sellers were fetching a hefty premium to global benchmarks on Indian demand10.
What to watch
Two decisions set the bill for the coming months. One is whether the commerce ministry opens a zero-duty window for GM soymeal2. The other is where Maharashtra arrivals land against SOPA's 34.9 lakh tonne estimate6. Buyers should also watch whether the origin probe reaches other declared African origins1.