NATO's North Atlantic Council agreed on October 20 to send extra maritime patrol aircraft, drones, radar systems and forensic teams to the Black Sea2. The decision followed a wave of attacks on merchant ships off Romania and Bulgaria. NATO military spokesman Colonel Martin O'Donnell said the assets would improve surveillance and intelligence sharing on threats to shipping1. Bulgaria said a US Navy P-8 Poseidon has begun reconnaissance flights over the sea1.
Romania and Bulgaria say seven commercial vessels were attacked in recent days, killing at least 23 seafarers and sinking several of the ships2. On October 13 a drone hit the Malta-flagged general cargoship Chelsea 3 about 17 miles east of Byala in Bulgaria's EEZ, the sea zone where a coastal state controls economic activity. All 15 crewmembers were rescued6. The Palau-flagged Able, carrying Romanian barley to Turkey, was attacked on October 6 in the same zone and is believed to have sunk6.
NATO has not formally attributed the attacks, and Moscow denies responsibility1. Romania has publicly accused Russia of carrying them out3, while Bulgaria has declined to speculate on the source2. Security consultancy Ambrey assessed it highly likely that Russian forces carried out the attacks7. The EU's HR/VP said Russia is attacking vessels and shipping lanes in the Black Sea8. Separately, Russia's defence ministry claimed it struck three cargo vessels at Ukraine's Reni and two more heading to Odesa, saying they were used for military purposes1.
The attacks reach Indian buyers because Ukraine supplies about 50% of global sunflower oil exports and 15% of maize exports, the EU's foreign policy chief told the European Parliament. Around 90% of those goods move through the Black Sea corridor8. India's crude sunflower oil imports fell to about 1.05 lakh tonnes in September from 2.72 lakh tonnes a year earlier, Solvent Extractors' Association data show. Total edible oil imports fell 7% to 15.44 lakh tonnes5. That data predates the October attacks, and the association gave no reason for the sunflower drop5.
What it costs Indian buyers
War-risk cover is the first new line in the bill. One buyer-side estimate put war-risk insurance at 2% of a vessel's value. Freight from Ukraine rose from $42 to $54 per tonne "in a matter of weeks", Mehmet Mesut Cakmak, chairman of the Turkish Flour Industrialists' Federation, said in an interview published in August4.
For crude oil cargoes, the additional war risk premium out of the Black Sea rose from $2 per barrel on July 17 to $3.7 per barrel on July 29. It then eased to $2.9 per barrel on September 30, according to Platts assessments9. Separately, the London market's Joint War Committee added the Black Sea to its listed areas on September 16. That step brings extra insurance procedures and cost for voyages there10, 9. Published October figures, and any figure specific to edible oil or grain cargoes rather than crude, were not available in the reporting checked for this article.
Freight is the second line. Danube congestion has left about 70 vessels waiting to transit at Sulina, with only three to four vessels a day moving towards Ukraine, Drewry reported11. Grain freight from Moldova's Giurgiulesti to Romania's Constanta was around $75 per tonne, against $15 to $35 before, Splash247 reported on October 97. The Baltic Dry Index, a dry bulk benchmark, closed at 2680 points on October 21, up 87 points on the day12.
Then there is the cargo price itself. Crude sunflower oil was quoted at $1,515 per tonne CIF Mumbai on the Solvent Extractors' Association price list13. Under CIF terms the seller arranges carriage and the required insurance, so freight and the seller's cover sit inside the quoted number14. Buyers should ask whether war-risk cover is included or charged separately. India also calculates customs duty on the CIF value of goods, so a bigger freight and insurance bill lifts the duty base as well14. Under CIF, the default cover is Institute Cargo Clauses (C), the narrowest standard level14.
Loadings are shrinking, not just getting dearer
Volumes show the strain. Black Sea wheat loadings fell to 1.6 million tonnes in September, 77.8% below the 7.3 million tonnes of a year earlier, according to AXSMarine data published by the shipbroker Ursa. It was the lowest for any September since 20177. Ukraine exported 2.4 million tonnes of agricultural products in September, 46% of its potential, agriculture minister Taras Vysotskyi said. The Danube carried 1.3 million tonnes7.
Addressing the European Parliament on October 21, the EU's HR/VP said Russia is attacking Ukraine's ports, vessels, shipping lanes and grain storage. She said Ukraine is losing an estimated 60 million euro a day in export revenues8. She added that the EU is working with Turkiye, India and others to push for a freedom of navigation arrangement in the Black Sea. Ukraine has proposed one and Russia has rejected it8.
The price signal is mixed
Grain futures are not trading like a shortage. Wheat fell for a fifth consecutive session to around $6.4 per bushel, its lowest since August 18, on hopes of a Russia-Ukraine peace deal15. US envoy Steve Witkoff was due to meet President Vladimir Putin on Wednesday15. That sits awkwardly against the EU statement the same week that global grain prices were at their highest since February 20238. Futures are pricing peace, while the freight and insurance market is still pricing risk.
What to watch
Kremlin foreign policy aide Yuri Ushakov said three-way talks between Russia, the United States and Ukraine may be held in Abu Dhabi around the middle of November16. On the water, Bulgarian authorities say commercial shipping to Varna and Burgas continues with no decline in vessel traffic1. No suspension of loadings at Reni or Izmail had been announced in the sources checked, though Drewry reported long queues at Sulina before the latest attacks11. Insurance terms are the other marker: the Joint War Committee's listing decision moved the Black Sea into a listed area, adding insurance procedures and cost10, 9.