Maersk's March 2027 Suez target: what it means for 2027 contracts

The Suez Canal Authority said Maersk expects all its shipping services to return to the canal by March 2027. It was reporting a videoconference between SCA chairman Ossama Rabiee and Maersk chief operating officer Rabab Boulos¹. Ahmed Hassan, a Maersk senior vice president, said the line is revising schedules to add canal transits¹. Hapag-Lloyd expects more of its services to return after a 21 October meeting with Rabiee. Two Asia services already transit Suez, the SCA said³.

Rabiee said Maersk-affiliated vessels made 276 transits in January to September 2026, carrying 23.3 million net tons, compared with 146 transits and 7 million tons a year earlier¹.

An expectation, not a schedule

The March 2027 date is Maersk's expectation as reported by the SCA, not a published timetable. Container News noted that the SCA announcement did not identify the services or give dates, and that the timeline "remains an expectation rather than a confirmed schedule"². Hapag-Lloyd has not announced a confirmed schedule for its additional services either³.

Alphaliner counts the Gemini partnership of Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd as 1.76 million TEU of deployed capacity now routed through the Red Sea⁴.

How much capacity is actually back

The estimates measure different things. Alphaliner found 63% of Far East to Europe capacity had returned to the Red Sea, with vessels on 24 of 46 direct services transiting Suez. That was 70% of deployed capacity on Far East to Mediterranean routes and 58% on Far East to North Europe⁴.

Drewry counted 55 containership transits through Suez in the week to 18 October, up 120% on the same week of 2025, and said there had been three weeks above 50 transits⁸. Xeneta put scheduled capacity through Bab el-Mandeb at 48% of pre-attack levels⁹. Liner analyst Lars Jensen estimated Suez routing was back to about 30% to 35% of normal across the market⁵.

Clarksons data cited by BusinessLine put weekly container capacity through Suez at 753,000 TEU in the first two weeks of October, against 1.457 million TEU in the same period of 2023¹⁰.

What it changes in a 2027 contract

Do not assume the quote is Suez-routed. Carriers are running mixed networks: Alphaliner found some services transiting via Suez on the outbound leg to Europe and sailing round the Cape on the return⁴. Ask the carrier or forwarder to state the routing basis in the rate line, and what happens to the rate if the routing changes.

Plan transit time on the slower leg as well as the faster one. Drewry puts a Suez round voyage at 21,878 nautical miles and 97 days, against 29,711 nautical miles and 124 days via the Cape, a saving of 7,833 miles and 27 days¹⁰. For Indian exporters, a Tiruppur Exporters' Association official said Chennai to Rotterdam now takes 23 to 24 days, against 34 to 36 days via the Cape¹⁰.

War-risk cost sits outside that saving. Drewry's estimate that Suez saves about $1 million per round voyage for a 24,000-TEU ship, or roughly $43 per slot, is before additional war-risk insurance costs¹⁰. The contract should say who pays any war-risk surcharge, whether it is capped, and how often it is reviewed.

Diversion and schedule change need notice periods. Hapag-Lloyd said it is monitoring maritime safety conditions and that these assessments will guide schedule adjustments³. A contract that lets the carrier reroute without notice leaves the buyer holding the inventory and demurrage cost.

Free time may matter more than the rate as the return progresses. As Suez and Cape services overlap, ships can bunch at ports¹¹. Freightos said the gradual pace of the return should limit, but not remove, schedule disruption and vessel bunching⁷.

Check the deal length. The container orderbook stands at 46.5% of the existing fleet, the highest since 2009, according to Linerlytica⁶. Shorter Suez voyages add effective capacity, which Freightos and FreightWaves both flag as an overcapacity risk for 2027^7, 5. A shorter or index-linked rate shares that risk better than a fixed annual rate set during GRI-driven spot increases.

The risk side has not gone away

Seatrade Maritime News said the return is taking place amid an escalating and widening conflict between Saudi Arabia and Yemen-based Houthis, and asked whether crew and cargoes are at risk¹².

An analysis in The Maritime Executive said the Houthis have kept the Hanish Islands, giving them a better ability to threaten lower Red Sea shipping with drones and speedboats. It said they are not doing so now, but likely will once they consolidate gains in the war¹³.

Freightos said Houthi advances along the Red Sea increase the threat to traffic through Bab el-Mandeb and the likelihood of attacks on passing vessels⁷. In the Gulf, an Iranian projectile sank a Dubai-linked boxship last week, it said⁷.

Alphaliner said five of the ten largest carriers had confirmed resuming Red Sea transits over the past month. That number was set to climb to eight after HMM, ONE and Yang Ming announced a return. If they carry through, Evergreen and Zim would be the only top-ten lines not back. Alphaliner said Zim was always likely to be last because the Houthis have named the Israeli line as a target⁴.

Rates and what to watch

Spot rates are not giving a single signal. Asia to North Europe rates rose 6% to $3,442 per FEU, Freightos reported on 21 October. Asia to the Mediterranean rose 3% to $3,927 per FEU. The rises came from general rate increases timed for 2027 contract talks, and Freightos said some forwarders doubt they will hold⁷. India to Europe spot has been falling: exporters reported cuts of $400 to $600 per container over three weeks, with more softening expected through November¹⁰.

Contract prices are private and not published. The public markers are spot indices, GRI announcements and network notices.

Watch carrier network notices, including Gemini's AE18/SE5 Asia to Mediterranean service, due to sail first from Shanghai on 22 November⁵. Watch Drewry's fortnightly tracker for whether weekly transits hold above 50⁸. And watch SCA announcements: the statements reviewed for this article set out no new discounts or rebates for returning carriers^1, 3.