What Black Sea attacks mean for India's vegoil import costs

A drone strike set fire to and capsized the Comoros-flagged carrier Khoryv on 23 October, about 13 nautical miles east of Constanta in Romania¹. The crew had 10 Ukrainians and three Azerbaijanis. One died and three are missing¹. Romania's president, Nicusor Dan, blamed Russia, saying: "This attack is a new example of the tragic consequences of Russia's aggression against Ukraine"¹.

It was at least the seventh attack on a merchant ship between Bulgaria and Romania in recent weeks. As many as 30 seafarers have been reported killed or missing, The Maritime Executive said¹. As of 19 October, the publication had counted eight attacks on merchant shipping in the western Black Sea that month, excluding attacks on shipping and port facilities inside Ukraine⁵.

The risk gets a price

On 25 October, MSC attached a published price to the risk. From 1 November, the line will charge an Emergency Operations Surcharge of US$200, €200 or £200 per container, depending on the trade². It applies to cargo from Greece, Türkiye, the Black Sea and non-Italian Adriatic ports to north-west Europe, the UK and ScanBaltic². The charge is based on the bill of lading date and runs until further notice².

MSC said the surcharge reflects "additional costs arising from the current market and operational environment" and supports its direct service to Northern Europe². Its revised north Europe to Greece and Türkiye rotation lists Piraeus, Gemlik, Tekirdag and Aliaga, but no Black Sea port².

For Indian buyers, that matters more as a signal than as a charge. The surcharge is per container and applies to cargo moving out of the Black Sea towards north Europe². Indian imports move the other way, and the cargo is quoted by the tonne, not the container⁶.

Which Indian lanes touch the zone

The costs that can reach Indian buyers are war-risk cover, longer voyages and disruption at the load port^7, 5. War-risk hull cover is priced on the insured value of the ship, and the premium varies with the expected stability of the countries the vessel will visit⁷. No fresh public quote for western Black Sea additional war-risk premiums appeared in the sources reviewed for this article, so the size of the increase cannot be stated.

Shipowners are already changing course. Since the attacks rose, more ships travelling between the Bosphorus and Ukraine have hugged the Bulgarian coast through Bulgarian territorial waters rather than taking the direct route⁵. Ukraine is again leaning on the Danube route after the attacks in the Black Sea, and the Khoryv was heading for the Sulina Canal when it was hit¹.

India's exposure runs mainly through sunflower oil. Ukraine supplies about 50% of the world's exported sunflower oil, and about 90% of Ukraine's farm exports move through the Black Sea corridor, the EU's high representative said⁴. India imported nearly 1.05 lakh tonnes of crude sunflower oil in September, down from 2.72 lakh tonnes a year earlier, according to Solvent Extractors' Association of India data³.

Crude sunflower oil was quoted at US$1,510 a tonne CIF Mumbai, RBD palmolein at US$1,195 a tonne C&F Mumbai and degummed soyoil at US$1,325 a tonne CIF Mumbai⁶. Brent spot was US$115.22 a barrel on 20 October⁸. The rupee was 94.94 to the dollar on 23 October⁹. A freight or insurance increase lands on a bill that is already high.

A premium to absorb, not a shortage

Palm and soyoil give buyers an exit, which is why the evidence points to a risk premium rather than a supply cut. Both are quoted on the same SEA board, and palmolein was the cheapest of the three oils on that board⁶. The September fall in sunflower oil imports also suggests Indian buyers were already stepping back before the latest attacks³.

Fertiliser is the second link, but the evidence is thinner. India's urea imports rose 40.5% in April to September to 5.589 million tonnes from 3.979 million tonnes a year earlier¹⁰. Imports started slowly in April as the West Asia crisis disrupted supply chains, then peaked in July, the data show¹⁰. Russia is one of the world's largest potash producers, alongside Canada and Belarus¹¹. But no published 2026 data show Indian potash or fertiliser cargoes disrupted by these attacks. The strikes recorded so far have been off the Bulgarian and Romanian coasts, not off Russia's export terminals⁵.

What to watch

The European Parliament adopted a resolution by 432 votes to 52, with 88 abstentions, calling for action and recommending that the EU consider a naval operation in the Black Sea¹. NATO agreed on 20 October to send additional surveillance and forensic assets; reports say these include maritime patrol aircraft, drones and radar systems¹². The EU's high representative said the bloc is working with Türkiye, India and others on a freedom of navigation arrangement for the Black Sea⁴. Ukraine has proposed such an arrangement and Russia has rejected it, the high representative said⁴.

For buyers, three signals matter. The first is whether EU member states move from surveillance to a naval operation, which would change how insurers view the risk¹. The second is how insurers price hull cover and which routes owners choose, which will show whether the premium is a short spike or a new line in contracts^7, 5. The third is SEA's October import data, which will show whether Indian buyers kept buying sunflower oil after the attacks³. MSC's surcharge runs until further notice, so any widening to other lanes or origins would be the clearest sign that carriers expect the risk to last².