A product tanker caught fire about eight nautical miles off Khasab on Oman's Musandam peninsula on Saturday 7 November. The crew was evacuated and no injuries were reported. At least two firefighting tugs worked on the blaze1.
Open-source analysts quoted by The Maritime Executive attributed the attack to Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. The same analysts tentatively identified the vessel as the Navig8 Messi, a product tanker chartered by ADNOC and indirectly owned by UAE-based ADNOC L&S1. The report said IRGC drones hit the same ship on 13 August during an outbound transit. It was repaired and returned to the same trade lane1.
UKMTO, the British agency that reports attacks to merchant shipping, received a second report. A company security officer said his firm's vessel was hit by a projectile during an outbound transit of the strait. All crew were reported safe, with no reports of environmental impact1.
Iran gives a different account
Iran's Revolutionary Guards Navy said two oil tankers caught fire after hitting mines while trying to pass through an "unauthorized route" in the strait. It said a third tanker suffered an explosion and also caught fire, the Fars news agency reported2. Reuters said it could not confirm any of the reported strikes2.
UKMTO described the Iranian presence in the strait as constant and active. "IRGC attacks, attempted attacks, and/or harassment activity persisted including UAV overflight, targeted surveillance of merchant shipping, and occasional VHF hailing," it said1.
The US disables a bulker
US forces also targeted and disabled the Iran-linked bulk carrier Huda on Saturday. US Central Command said the crew ignored repeated warnings and tried to violate the US naval blockade on Iranian ports. It said it told the crew to "abandon the targeted spaces" before the strike1.
UKMTO reported a bulk carrier and military forces involved in an incident about 18 nautical miles east of Khor Fakkan in the Gulf of Oman, with damage unknown2.
Transits fall below normal
Traffic through Hormuz is below normal, in a range of single to low-double-digit transit counts per day, UKMTO said. It added that the count was well below the number of escorts seen early last week1.
Fewer sailings means fewer options in each loading window. The same hull has now been struck twice in the same lane1.
Qatar says talks continue
Qatar, which has been mediating in the conflict, denied on Saturday that the United States and Iran had failed to reach a deal. Its prime minister said both sides were continuing to work toward an agreement2.
Iran has sent a nuclear proposal to Washington through Qatar. An Iranian official said talks depend on Washington meeting seven Iranian demands, including sanctions relief, access to frozen assets and war reparations. Washington insists nuclear issues must feature in the initial talks2.
No agreement had been announced by 8 November2.
Iron Gate targets the land routes
Admiral Cooper, the CENTCOM commander, announced Task Force Iron Gate on 7 November. The mixed civilian and military staff is based at his headquarters in Tampa, Florida. It will coordinate efforts to stop weapons systems, dual-use technologies, sanctioned materials and illegal revenue across Iran's land borders and the Caspian Sea4.
The naval blockade now shuts out 80% of the trade that previously entered Iran by ship, mainly through Bandar Abbas, according to The Maritime Executive4.
Freight is already shifting. AIS signals have gone dark on the approaches to Bandar Anzali, Nowshahr and Amirabad in the southern Caspian, and to Makhachkala, Olya and Astrakhan in Russia4. Rail freight into Iran through Turkmenistan, from Russia through the Inche-Burun border crossing and from China through Sarakhs has increased by as much as 40% in recent months. Trucks are reportedly queuing five days at Bazargan on the Turkish border4.
Iran's Revolutionary Guards called the task force "wordplay". The Guards said it would fail because Tehran had prepared and coordinated closely with its neighbours2.
Oil fell before the weekend attacks
Brent spot stood at $107.03 a barrel on 3 November, down 13.1% from a week earlier3. That move came before the weekend attacks1.
The International Maritime Organization's Council condemned attacks on merchant shipping in the Red Sea and Black Sea. It also mourned the loss of the 25th seafarer since the Strait of Hormuz conflict began5.