The sinking of the 421-container Contship Jet off Bulgaria was confirmed on 29 October, a day after three maritime drones struck it, Bulgaria's Varna Regional Administration said. All 18 crew were rescued1. Within the same 24 hours, UK maritime authorities reported a tanker on fire in the Strait of Hormuz, which security consultancy Vanguard described as mostly submerged2.
The two incidents hit different basins: a container loss on a route into Romania, and a casualty in the waterway that carries India's Gulf crude and LPG. Neither has been officially attributed to an attacker2, 1.
What is confirmed, and what is not
UKMTO, the British naval reporting service, said it received a report at about 0300 hours UTC on 29 October from a passing vessel. The master reported a tanker on fire about nine nautical miles north of Khasab, on Oman's Musandam Peninsula. UKMTO said the crew's status was unknown2. Vanguard said the ship had been hit by a projectile and was "mostly submerged", and that a third vessel nearby was possibly rendering assistance2.
Trade reports called the ship feared sunk, hit by an unknown projectile, without identifying the vessel, its flag or its cargo5, 2, 6. Treat the Hormuz casualty as reported but unconfirmed.
The Black Sea case is better documented. Bulgaria's transport ministry said the Constanta rescue centre was told of the attack at 12:01 local time on 28 October, about 17 nautical miles east of Cape Kaliakra. The crew abandoned ship at 12:131. The vessel was on passage from Haifa to Constanta with 421 containers1.
Bulgaria's defence ministry confirmed three strikes; a French maritime patrol aircraft detected the drones and alerted the Bulgarian navy1. The identity of those responsible "has not been officially established", Container News reported1. Ukraine has blamed Russia, Bulgarian Prime Minister Rumen Radev has said the attacks appear to benefit Russia, and Moscow has denied involvement7.
ZIM, which had the ship on charter, said on 28 October that it was assessing the vessel and its cargo and contacting affected customers1. What the 421 containers held has not been disclosed7.
The repricing was already under way
Scorpio Tankers said on 28 October that its LR2 product tankers had booked fourth-quarter voyages at an average of $181,000 per day. That compares with $72,283 per day in the third quarter3. The figures are preliminary and cover 44% of expected LR2 revenue days3.
On the India run, an industry executive told the Economic Times that a tanker now charges $10-11 per barrel from the Gulf to Indian ports. Before the war the rate was $1-$1.58. The International Energy Agency put the Middle East Gulf to Asia cost at more than $37 per barrel, over five times pre-war levels8.
Insurance is the second channel through which the war reaches cargo costs. London's marine insurance market widened its high-risk Black Sea area in September, exempting only the territorial waters of Georgia, Bulgaria, Romania and Turkey9. A London market source told Reuters that cover for the Romanian Black Sea was available but expensive: "It is expensive because of the attacks and a few insurers are shying away". The same report said there was "no withdrawal of capacity"9.
On the container side, MSC will charge an emergency operations surcharge from 1 November. It is US$200, EUR200 or GBP200 per container on cargo from Greece, Turkiye, the Black Sea and non-Italian Adriatic ports to north-west Europe, the UK and the ScanBaltic4. MSC published the charge on 25 October, before the Contship Jet sank4, 1.
Attack tempo, and two basins pulling apart
Attack tallies differ by compiler. The Washington Institute for Near East Policy counted 28 attacks in the strait and nearby waterways in October as of 26 October, and 113 since the war began on 28 February10. UKMTO had logged 135 conflict-related incidents by 16 October and says voluntary reporting leaves gaps10.
More than 30 very large crude carriers have been damaged, including 11 in October, about 3.5% of a global fleet of more than 90010.
Traffic has not stopped. S&P Global Commodities at Sea counted 17 ships through Hormuz on both 24 and 25 October, including six VLCCs on 25 October11. Five LPG tankers crossed between 23 and 25 October11.
That is why analysts disagree on the label. BIMCO calls the "effective closure" of Hormuz the largest uncertainty for dry bulk; about 4% of dry bulk demand normally sails through the strait12. Sparta's Aaron Kildow said flows are holding at or above pre-war levels, with the risk premium showing up in freight instead13.
India's exposure
India's crude bill is where this shows first. The Indian basket averaged $120.46 per barrel to 26 October, against $116.77 in September, the highest monthly average in 14 years14. Brent spot was $123.1 a barrel on 27 October15.
For exporters, capacity rather than price is the binding constraint. Varmora Granito, a Morbi tile maker, sent 18-20 containers to the UAE and Iraq last week. Its chairman said the company now gets 20 containers where it used to get 20016. Industry estimates put the Morbi cluster's FY27 exports at about Rs 12,000 crore, down 40%16. Under-recoveries on LPG for the three state fuel retailers are around Rs 62,000 crore14.
What buyers should check before booking
Risk passes at the point the Incoterm names. Under FOB and CIF that point is on board at the port of shipment; under DAP it is the named destination17. A CIF buyer's transit risk can therefore begin when the cargo is loaded, even though the seller arranges the freight.
Cargo cover is a separate question. Under CIF the seller's default obligation is insurance on Institute Cargo Clauses (C) terms; CIP requires the higher (A) level17. A CIF buyer should check which clauses were bought, and whether war and strikes risks are included.
Three checks are worth making before booking Black Sea or Gulf cargo:
- Get the war-risk clause and the additional-premium arrangement in writing.
- Ask the insurer to confirm cover for the exact port pair and routing.
- Confirm who pays if the carrier diverts or discharges elsewhere; authorities have not yet given a full assessment of the Contship Jet's cargo or the losses1.
What to watch
Three dates cluster on 1 November. MSC's Black Sea surcharge takes effect by bill of lading date4. Iran's Persian Gulf Strait Authority says it will take legal action against all Sinokor vessels from that date, warning cargo owners and insurers18. The LA-Long Beach watchmen's union, which voted to authorise a strike, could call one19.
After that, watch the insurance market more than the headlines. If London underwriters pull back from western Black Sea box traffic, buyers will see it in the next premium quote rather than the next incident report9.