US tells ships without need to stay clear of Hormuz as attacks peak

Vessels with no need to sail between the Gulf of Oman and the Strait of Hormuz should stay away, the US Naval Forces Central Command said on October 28. The advisory went out through the Joint Maritime Information Center¹. Ships that do transit should add time to their schedules¹.

"Vessels which do not need to transit the area are advised to remain well clear to avoid unnecessary delays to their voyage," the notice said¹. It told ships that do transit to "plan additional transit time to allow for increased traffic density and military blockade enforcement operations"¹. Neutral vessels carrying neutral cargo, or sailing in ballast between neutral ports, may be questioned, visited and searched to confirm their intentions under the blockade¹.

First publicly issued notice since July

The advisory is the first publicly issued notice of its kind from the US military since mid-July, when it began blockading Iranian shipping¹. Transport Topics identified it as JMIC Advisory Note 016-26 on blockade enforcement, distributed by UKMTO for the Joint Maritime Information Centre².

The July notice said the blockade would not impede neutral passage through Hormuz, though ships should expect to be questioned on their intentions¹. October's version goes further. It tells ships that do not need the passage to avoid it, and asks those that do to build slack into their voyages¹.

The notice lands as attacks on ships run at their highest level of the war¹. Iran has lifted attacks to a wartime high of almost 30 in October, Bloomberg reported¹. The International Maritime Organization recorded 29 attacks between October 1 and 22, more than in any month since March⁶. Seatrade Maritime counted 121 vessels attacked and 24 seafarers killed in eight months of war, with at least 34 confirmed attacks since September 28⁷. The PGSA blacklist has widened to 125 vessels, Seatrade Maritime reported³.

Flows hold, at a price

Gulf oil exports have recovered to near prewar levels despite the attacks. Shuttle tankers are doing much of the work, running crude from inside the Gulf to the Gulf of Oman. There, tankers unwilling to risk the strait wait to take it on¹. S&P Global Commodities at Sea counted six very large crude carrier (VLCC) transits through Hormuz on October 25, the most since October 17. Total Hormuz traffic was steady at 17 ships on October 24 and 25⁶. US Central Command said more than 3,000 commercial ships had transited Hormuz with its support in six months⁶.

The cost of that workaround shows up in prices. Crude loading inside Hormuz is worth $20 to $30 a barrel more than at the lightering zone south of Fujairah. That spread pays owners for the risk of the shuttle run, Sparta's Aaron Kildow said⁸. Goldman Sachs puts a $7 a barrel war risk premium for crossing Hormuz inside a global crude freight rate of more than $20 a barrel, against $3 a barrel a year earlier⁵.

What Indian buyers face

India imported 22.26 million tonnes of crude in September, up 16% from August, as Middle Eastern barrels returned and Russian volumes fell⁹. India meets more than 85% of its crude needs with imports, and PPAC data put the April to September import bill at $90.6 billion, up 46.3%¹⁰. The Indian basket averaged $120.46 a barrel to October 26, the highest in 14 years¹¹.

Freight now shapes which crude a refiner can afford. A tanker charges $10 to $11 a barrel from the Gulf to Indian ports, against $1 to $1.5 before the war. A US cargo costs $20 to $25 a barrel to India, against $3 to $3.5 before the war, an industry executive told The Economic Times⁴. That gap is why refiners are deepening their dependence on Middle Eastern supplies even as freight rises, the paper reported⁴. Brent spot was $123.10 a barrel on October 27, down 3.9% on the day but up 6.8% on the week¹². The rupee was at 95.22 to the dollar on October 28¹³.

LPG is less exposed than it was. The US now supplies 67% of India's LPG imports, up from under 10% a year ago, US Ambassador Sergio Gor said on October 21¹⁴. India imported 1.40 million tonnes of LPG in September, up from 1.30 million tonnes in August⁹. Under-recoveries on LPG for the three state refiners are around ₹62,000 crore¹¹. Gulf LPG still moves through the strait: five LPG tankers crossed Hormuz between October 23 and 25, one of them a UAE-linked ship that had earlier transferred cargo at Vadinar⁶.

Container and other cargo through Gulf ports is a smaller but slower exposure. JOC reported longer berthing delays at the UAE ports of Fujairah and Khor Fakkan and strained feeder capacity on the India-Middle East trade¹⁵. India's exports to West Asia fell to $4.2 billion in April from $6.48 billion in January, recovering to $5.01 billion by August¹⁶.

Tanker owners are capturing the difference. Scorpio Tankers said its LR2 product tankers had booked $181,000 a day so far in the fourth quarter, against $72,283 in the third¹⁷.

A checklist for buyers

Start with time. The notice itself tells operators to plan additional transit time¹, so delivery windows quoted before October 28 deserve a fresh look. Next, check who carries the risk. Equirus noted that almost all crude cargoes are now bought on a delivered basis, against about half earlier¹¹. That puts freight and war risk inside the seller's price rather than in a separate line.

Then count the extra legs. Ship-to-ship transfers outside the Persian Gulf add about $4 a barrel to freight, on Goldman's breakdown⁵. On the insurance side, marine insurance premiums are part of what pushed the Indian basket above $120¹¹. Cargo cover and notification duties are worth checking against each shipment's routing. The notice restates that neutral vessels may be questioned, visited and searched. It does not say neutral passage is barred¹. Build extra time into the voyage for a possible inspection.

Forecasts point both ways. S&P Global Energy expects crude to stay in an $80 to $100 range through 2027. It sees Brent averaging around $90 or higher for the rest of 2026 and $86 next year¹⁰. Sparta's Kildow names renewed strikes on Gulf infrastructure and the loss of more tankers as the most severe downside case. A peace deal including Iran and the Houthis is his best case⁸.