Terminal watchmen at the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach could walk out on Sunday 1 November. Their union has told other maritime unions that a strike is possible when the latest contract extension expires1. ILWU Local 26 represents about 250 watchmen1. No strike has been called, and talks continue with help from the Federal Mediation and Conciliation Service1.
The Pacific Maritime Association, which bargains for carriers, terminal operators and stevedores on the West Coast4, warned on 27 October that a walkout would reach well beyond the watchmen1.
A small crew at the gate
PMA says the watchmen are about 2% of the ILWU workforce at the two ports1. They handle security duties at marine terminals, including gate and cargo watch operations1. That small share of the payroll carries a wide gate: PMA says the terminals where they work handle roughly 85% of Long Beach's cargo and 33% of Los Angeles' cargo1.
PMA also says other ILWU members are not expected to cross Local 26 picket lines, which could stop vessel, yard and gate work at the affected berths1. The union's notice names eight locations: APM Terminals, Long Beach Container Terminal, Total Terminals International, SSA at C-60, A-90 and LB 206, Pacific Container Terminal and OH 551. PMA referred to six container terminals1.
The watchmen's agreement is separate from the coastwide ILWU contract covering longshore workers and marine clerks, which runs through 20281. Their previous agreement expired in July 2025, and the two sides have met regularly for more than a year1. PMA says every tentative agreement so far has been based on a union proposal, and significant differences remain1.
In her 23 October letter, Local 26 President Luisa Gratz said federal mediation had so far produced nothing of value and asked other unions for solidarity1. PMA said it "will continue to negotiate in good faith through the November 1 deadline and beyond if necessary"1. The last West Coast dispute ended in 2023 with a six-year coastwide agreement covering about 22,000 workers at 29 ports1.
Records, then a backlog
The deadline lands on a port complex that has just finished an unusually long peak. Los Angeles and Long Beach together set an all-time monthly record of 2.04 million TEUs in September1. Long Beach alone moved 997,177 TEUs, beating its previous record of 987,191 TEUs set in October 2024, while Los Angeles handled more than 1.04 million TEUs5.
The National Retail Federation expects volumes at major US container ports to ease from 2.25 million TEUs in October to 2 million in November1. A stoppage would therefore hit terminals already working through backlog.
Two other problems are stacked on top. Retailers with distribution centres in the eastern half of the country say the rail container backlog at Los Angeles and Long Beach puts Black Friday deliveries of holiday merchandise in jeopardy2. The Pacific Merchant Shipping Association said September's record volumes pushed up the time cargo sat idle, for both rail and truck moves6. The Harbor Trucking Association has also flagged a backlog of empty containers that are not being shipped back to Asia7.
On the rail side, JOC reported that a flood near Laguna, New Mexico, which began on Saturday, will have "a substantial short-term impact on all shippers, including intermodal"3. The flood is disrupting BNSF's intermodal network, the service that moves containers inland by rail, so the port backlog and the washout are squeezing the same inland boxes3.
Long Beach plans extra evening and Saturday gates from late October for six weeks, skipping the week of Thanksgiving5. The Vincent Thomas Bridge, a key cargo route through the complex, will also close for the rest of the year for deck replacement work5.
What the alternatives cost
Spot benchmarks are already high. Drewry's World Container Index rose 2% to $4,585 per 40-foot container on 22 October, a 15-week high8. Shanghai to Los Angeles stood at $8,007 and Shanghai to New York at $10,1668. The NYSHEX index put Asia to US West Coast at 7,579.09 and Asia to US East Coast at 9,936.898. Those are Asia benchmarks, not India rates, but they set the level against which a diversion is priced.
For India-origin cargo, Maersk's peak season surcharge, effective 23 October, is $3,400 per container to the US and Canadian West Coast9. The same surcharge runs to $5,150 to the East and Gulf coasts from north-west India, Nepal and Bhutan, and $5,700 to Houston9. Moving holiday cargo to an all-water East Coast routing therefore starts from a higher surcharge line, before any spot premium.
Air is the expensive option. Global air freight rates are about 26% above the same period of 202510. Rates from Asia Pacific to the US are 41% higher than a year ago, TAC and WorldACD data show, and jet fuel is up 113% year on year, according to IATA10. That only works for cargo whose margin can carry it.
Neither the union's notice nor PMA's statement gave India-specific volumes for the affected terminals1.
What to do before Sunday
Ask three questions about every open shipment: is the box on the water, on the dock, or already in the rail backlog? Terminal and carrier tracking answer the first two. Rail status usually sits with the terminal, not the ocean bill of lading.
Confirm last free days for detention and demurrage in writing, and ask the carrier or terminal for an extension now, before a stoppage makes the request harder to process. Check whether your cargo policy covers delay and labour dispute stoppages, and whether it requires notice within a set number of days. Read the force majeure and routing clauses to see who pays for a diversion.
Then decide which cargo is truly urgent. Holding a few high-value holiday SKUs for air is one decision. Re-routing a full container of low-margin goods through the East Coast is another, and the surcharge gap above shows it is not free9.
A watchmen's strike is still a possibility, not a fact, and the next few days of mediation matter more than any forecast. But the terminals are congested, the rail network is disrupted, and the calendar is unforgiving. Buyers who map their boxes this week will have more options than those who wait for 1 November.