India's LNG sourcing flips: Qatar 45% to 3%, a third now spot

India bought 9% more LNG in the seven months from March to September than a year earlier, but from a different set of suppliers. Qatar, which supplied 45% of those cargoes a year earlier, was down to 3%, according to Kpler data reported by The Economic Times. The UAE's share fell to 8% from 14%¹.

The US, Oman and Nigeria together supplied about 68% of India's LNG in the period, up from 25% a year earlier, Kpler found. Counting from the start of the war on 28 February, the US share rose to 26% from 11.5%, Oman's to 22% from 6% and Nigeria's to 19% from 7%. Angola rose to 9.5% from 7.5%¹.

Kpler put September arrivals at 590,000 tonnes from Oman, 350,000 tonnes from Nigeria, 340,000 tonnes from the US and 100,000 tonnes from Qatar⁴.

Spot prices set the cost of the switch

The switch has kept volumes up, at a price. More than a third of India's LNG is now bought on the spot market, industry executives told The Economic Times. The Japan Korea Marker, the Asian benchmark, is around $30 per mmbtu. It averaged $20 per mmbtu in March to September, against $12 a year earlier¹.

Crude-linked term supply would have cost about $14 per mmbtu at Brent at $110 a barrel, the newspaper reported¹. Brent was $115.22 a barrel on 20 October, down 8.4% from a week earlier but 89.8% above a year earlier⁵.

Kpler analyst Sonal Ranjan said: "The shift demonstrates India's ability to secure alternative supply." She said maintaining import volumes has required greater exposure to flexible international markets and high prices¹.

Not all term supply is priced off oil. The Cheniere contracts QatarEnergy signed on 22 October are free-on-board and linked to Henry Hub plus a fixed fee². Henry Hub gas cost $3.10 per mmbtu on 20 October⁶, while JKM was around $30¹. Liquefaction fees and freight set the delivered number, and the announcement did not disclose them².

Shipping also decides where US cargoes go. The Baltic Exchange assessed the US Gulf to Japan route at $49,000 a day last week, more than twice the US Gulf to Europe route at $21,200 a day⁴. Europe took 76 of the 143 US LNG cargoes delivered in September⁴.

Domestic Indian benchmarks are high too. PPAC's GIXI, the monthly weighted average price on the Indian Gas Exchange, was ₹2102 ($22.0) per mmbtu in August 2026. The administered price of domestic natural gas was $11.22 per mmbtu for October 2026⁷.

Who pays

Fertiliser is the main driver of India's LNG demand, and it is shielded from price signals. Fertiliser prices in India are not set by the market, so higher production costs add to the government's subsidy bill¹.

Fertiliser trade data show how the sector is coping. Urea imports rose 40.5% to 5.589 million tonnes in April to September, from 3.979 million tonnes a year earlier, while local urea sales fell 4.1% to 18.52 million tonnes. Imports started slowly in April at 583,000 tonnes because the West Asia crisis disrupted supply chains, then peaked at 1.534 million tonnes in July³. Production of NP and NPK fertilisers fell 35.5% and imports of the same fell 31.4%³.

In the core industries index for September, fertiliser output fell 11.7% and natural gas output fell 4.6%, against growth of 7.9% for the index as a whole⁸.

On the demand side, PPAC counted 9,158 CNG stations and 1,76,89,278 domestic piped gas connections as of 31 August 2026⁷. The Economic Times said CNG vehicle adoption is pushing consumption higher¹.

The paper also said overall domestic gas consumption has stayed steady since the war began¹. The production figures do not directly contradict that, because they measure output of fertiliser and gas rather than use. But they do show two large gas-consuming sectors under pressure in September⁸.

A Qatari comeback is not assured

Iranian missile strikes in March damaged two liquefaction trains at Ras Laffan with 12.8 mtpa of combined capacity, about 17% of Qatar's export capacity. QatarEnergy has warned that repairs could take three to five years and cost $20 billion a year in lost revenue².

Hormuz remains the constraint. Vortexa recorded five confirmed LNG carrier transits of the strait last week, against a four-week average of 12, and only two were laden outbound. Ras Laffan loaded five cargoes totalling 400,000 tonnes⁴. Kpler identified 13 Qatari loadings in 1 to 13 October, but only four ships were broadcasting AIS signals⁴.

Qatari term customers are already taking force majeure notices. Italy's Edison has received notices covering 35 Qatari cargoes, equivalent to 4.6 billion cubic metres of gas, with deliveries suspended until early December⁴.

QatarEnergy is buying around the blockage. Its Cheniere deal is its first US offtake agreement and runs to 2054, with deliveries starting in the early 2030s⁹. "This major long-term purchase will expand and diversify our global LNG portfolio," said Saad Sherida Al-Kaabi, Qatar's minister of state for energy affairs and chief executive of QatarEnergy. He said it would also improve the company's ability to meet the market's changing requirements².

India still holds large Qatari entitlements. Petronet LNG has a 7.5 mtpa QatarEnergy deal running from 2028 to 2048, renewing a contract that expires in 2028, and an 8.5 mtpa sale and purchase agreement¹⁰. A Qatari recovery would restore contracted volumes rather than require fresh talks.

What to watch

European storage was 74.58% full on 21 October, the lowest for the time of year since records began in 2009¹¹, and the EU will end remaining Russian LNG imports from 1 January⁴. A cold winter would put Europe and Asia in the same queue for US cargoes. The report said alternative suppliers have limited capacity to fill the gap, raising the risk of tight conditions into 2027¹¹.

Three signals matter for Indian buyers. The first is early December, when the Qatari force majeure notices are due to lift⁴. The second is the gap between JKM and crude-linked term, which decides how much each spot top-up costs¹. The third is whether more Henry Hub-linked term is signed while US capacity is still available².