Global air freight rates have climbed above the highs of the previous two peak seasons, as jet fuel prices more than doubled in a year2, 1. The Baltic Air Freight Index compiled by TAC rose 4.7% in the week to 19 October and stood 26.4% above a year earlier1. TAC said the index had passed the highest points of the last two peak seasons, which normally come before Thanksgiving and Christmas1.

WorldACD's measure shows rates 30% higher than in 2025, and both providers put the fortnightly rise at 4% to 4.7%2. They do not agree exactly on the annual gain, 26.4% on TAC's index against 30% on WorldACD's2, 1.

The driver is fuel. IATA's global average jet fuel price was $196.70 a barrel last week, up 2.2% on the week before and 113.7% higher than a year earlier3, 1. TAC said the cost would "put a hard floor under rates at which airlines will carry cargo"1.

What Indian shippers see on a quote

The TAC figures cited here cover outbound Hong Kong, Shanghai, Frankfurt, London Heathrow and North America1. None of them gives a per-kg rate for Delhi to Chicago or Mumbai to Frankfurt.

What is public is the fuel piece of the invoice. Carriers charge a fuel surcharge on top of the base rate, and several have just raised it7. MSC Air Cargo moved from $1.70 or €1.70 to $2.30 or €2.30 per chargeable kg on 16 October, a rise of about 35%7. Air Canada lifted its long-haul surcharge from 29p to 36p per kg. Its charge for UK-origin cargo to Canada and the north-east and midwest US went from 15p to 19p per kg7. JAL's Japan-origin long-haul surcharge rose to ¥192 per kg7.

In India the fuel cost itself keeps rising. Domestic ATF in Delhi was about ₹137 a litre after the 1 October revision, the third monthly increase in a row4. It rose by about ₹16 a litre in October, after ₹6.28 in September and ₹5 in August4. Domestic ATF prices were 46.2% higher year on year in October, according to ICRA8.

That feeds into surcharges. Air India and Air India Express brought in fuel surcharges of up to ₹1,200 on domestic flights and up to $215 on international routes from 9 October8. Akasa Air revised its surcharges from 8 October8.

State taxes have moved the other way in places. Delhi kept VAT on ATF at 7% until 16 November. The Federation of Indian Airlines has asked for an extension, saying fuel now takes 50% to 55% of airlines' operating costs rather than the usual 30% to 40%4. Tamil Nadu cut VAT at Chennai airport to 16% from 29%, for fuel supplied to scheduled airlines on domestic flights. At its other airports the rate fell to 1%, from 1 November to 31 October 20279. A Chennai forwarder said the change could bring "lower freight rates and additional capacity out of Chennai"9.

Belly space is the other half of the price

Indian exporters enter the busiest six weeks with less belly capacity than usual. Air India and Air India Express have suspended Riyadh and Dammam flights until 7 November and Jeddah flights until 31 October5. IndiGo has cancelled Jeddah, Dammam and Madinah flights until 31 October, while Akasa Air has parked Riyadh until 30 November and Jeddah until 10 November5.

On Europe, Air India is suspending its nonstop Delhi to Copenhagen and Vienna flights and cutting frequencies to Birmingham, London Gatwick and San Francisco in the winter schedule6. An Air India executive said decisions on routes were being taken "in view of high aviation turbine fuel prices and continued airspace closures"6.

Air France and Lufthansa are moving their Mumbai freighter operations to Navi Mumbai, which The Loadstar described as a gateway change rather than additional capacity7.

Other capacity numbers point the same way. OAG data show domestic schedules for October to December down 5% year on year, with seats down 1.2%8. ICRA said international passenger traffic for Indian carriers fell 19.3% in the first half of FY20278.

Aircraft supply adds a floor under rates. Cargo demand is outpacing capacity, and lease rates for older 777-300ERs, the main candidates for freighter conversion, rose $200,000 a month over two years10.

US lanes tight, Europe lanes softer

Asia Pacific to the US is where the pressure sits. Volumes were 14% higher than a year earlier, and rates on the lane were up 41% year on year and 6% week on week2. Hong Kong to US rates rose 27% week on week and mainland China to US rates 18%2.

Asia Pacific to Europe looks different. Rates rose just 1% week on week even as volumes fell 16% year on year, and WorldACD linked part of the weakness to EU measures aimed at curbing low-value ecommerce imports2. TAC reported lower week-on-week rates from Europe to India, along with falls to the US, Japan, Australia and South Africa1. Frankfurt outbound rates fell 6.6% on the week but were still 33.7% higher than a year earlier1.

For Indian buyers, that split matters. Europe outbound to India was softer on the week, while Asia Pacific to the US was the strongest lane in the market1, 2. Forwarders still have to work out whether the increases come from demand or from tighter capacity on particular routes, The Loadstar said2.

The volume behind the US squeeze looks like real cargo, not only fuel. Kuehne+Nagel's air revenues rose 38% to Sfr2.4 billion in the third quarter while volumes rose 10% to 619,000 tonnes, with cloud infrastructure and semiconductor customers named as the main driver11.

What to watch in the next four weeks

  • The 1 November ATF revision. Prices are set monthly, and October brought the third rise in a row4.
  • Delhi's VAT decision. The 7% rate runs to 16 November and airlines want it extended4.
  • Black Friday and Cyber Monday. TAC said the index had already passed the highs of the last two peak seasons, which come before Thanksgiving and Christmas1.
  • Whether Europe's softness reaches India. Asia Pacific to Europe volumes are 16% below last year, and Europe to India rates slipped on the week2, 1.
  • Gulf capacity. Air India's Saudi suspensions run to 7 November5.