Asia-Europe spot rates rose for a second week after three months of post-peak declines. Rates on the transpacific and transatlantic trades also rose in the week to 22 October2. Drewry's World Container Index (WCI) gained 2% to $4,585 per 40ft container, the highest reading in 15 weeks1.
Carriers are cutting capacity to try to hold the increase. Drewry counted eight blanked sailings on Asia-Europe for next week, up from two this week. A blanked sailing is a scheduled voyage the line cancels1. On the transpacific the count went the other way, to two blanks next week from six this week1.
MSC and CMA CGM have announced new FAK (freight all kinds) prices for 1 November. MSC said it would apply $4,500 per 40ft for Asia to North Europe, $5,000 for Asia to the west Mediterranean and $5,100 for the east Mediterranean. CMA CGM is aiming for $4,900 for the west Mediterranean and $5,200 for the east Mediterranean on the same date2.
| Lane and index week | Latest | Weekly change | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| WCI composite, 22 Oct | $4,585 per 40ft | +2% | Up1 |
| Shanghai to Rotterdam, 22 Oct | $3,632 per 40ft | +3% | Up1 |
| Shanghai to Genoa, 22 Oct | $4,152 per 40ft | +5% | Up1 |
| Shanghai to Los Angeles, 22 Oct | $8,007 per 40ft | +2% | Up1 |
| Shanghai to New York, 22 Oct | $10,166 per 40ft | +1% | Up1 |
| Rotterdam to New York, 22 Oct | $3,181 per 40ft | +3% | Up2 |
| Intra-Asia average, 15 Oct | $1,453 per 40ft | -3% | Down3 |
| Shanghai to Nhava Sheva, 15 Oct | $3,370 per 40ft | -11% | Down3 |
Announced rates are not the rates paid
Drewry's Asia-Europe readings follow the previous week's Shanghai Containerised Freight Index (SCFI), which showed Shanghai to North Europe at $3,547 per 40ft and Shanghai to the Mediterranean at $4,0972. Linerlytica, an analyst house, said "actual spot rates remain weak with current carrier rates at below the SCFI's assessment", and expects the November FAK levels to likely fail2. European forwarders said they were offered discounts on FAK levels through the first half of October and suggested the same will happen in November2.
Published rates and paid rates also diverge on the transpacific. The WCI put Shanghai to New York at $10,166 per 40ft1. Freight Right, a US west coast forwarder, said a spot rate of about $8,000 per 40ft was now common on the Asia to US east coast trade. It flagged "aggressive pricing anomalies" among niche carriers, naming Ocean Network Express as quoting well below market averages2. These are different lanes and port pairs, so the levels are not directly comparable.
Two transatlantic benchmarks point the same way from different levels. The WCI's Rotterdam to New York leg rose 3% to $3,181 per 40ft and sits 85% above a year earlier2. Freightos put transatlantic spot rates at about $2,850 per FEU (forty-foot equivalent unit), up about $200 since the end of September and 25% higher year on year4. The gap comes from lane definitions and assessment methods.
Where the pressure is coming off
Drewry's Intra-Asia Container Index fell 3% to $1,453 per 40ft in the week to 15 October, and Shanghai to Nhava Sheva dropped 11% to $3,370 per 40ft3. Vessel waiting time at Jawaharlal Nehru Port fell to 24 hours from 423. The intra-Asia index is still up 198% year on year, and Shanghai to Jebel Ali held at $8,416 per 40ft on Middle East disruption3.
India to US east coast spot rates fell by up to $3,000 per FEU in two to three weeks, the Journal of Commerce reported on 23 October, as booking activity slowed5. The published summary gives the size of the fall but no lane-level all-in rate. Drewry publishes no India origin lane in the WCI1. Indian exporters should read the report as a direction of travel rather than a benchmark for a specific port pair.
The rupee was at 94.94 to the dollar on 23 October6. Freight is billed in dollars, so a weaker rupee raises the rupee cost of any dollar rate.
Booking before 1 November
The timing call depends on the lane, and on the carrier. MSC's North Europe FAK for 1 November is the same as the level it introduced in mid-October, so waiting for the new tariff buys nothing there. Its Mediterranean levels are $500 per 40ft higher2. Cargo that can sail before 1 November avoids that step, if space allows.
For a shipper already booked, a blanked sailing is mainly a rollover risk: the container moves to the next voyage. For the market, blanks are also a tool to support rates1. Ask the carrier to confirm in writing which voyage your containers are on, and check detention and demurrage free time at destination before a rollover uses it up.
For 2027 annual contracts, the index named in the clause matters as much as the level. Drewry describes the WCI as a reference for index-linked contracts1. The WCI, SCFI and Freightos Baltic Index use different lanes and assessment dates, so a clause that names the wrong one can settle on a move your cargo never saw2, 4, 1. Check the named lane against your own port pair: the WCI's headline lanes are Shanghai departures, plus Rotterdam to New York, and the SCFI is built from Shanghai departures1, 2.
The swing that decides 2027
Capacity is returning while Asia-Europe demand is soft. Alphaliner found 63% of the capacity deployed between the Far East and Europe had come back to the Red Sea, with ships on 24 of 46 direct services transiting Suez7. Drewry counted 55 Suez sailings in week 42, up from 541. Freightos expects Suez transits to recover fully in the first quarter of 2027, if security allows4. Alphaliner found some carriers keeping Cape of Good Hope routes as a hedge against renewed disruption7. Shorter voyages add effective capacity, and Freightos sees overcapacity risk building into 20274.