Spot rates from Shanghai to Nhava Sheva fell 11% to $3,370 per 40ft container in the week to 15 October, Drewry's Intra-Asia Container Index showed1. The composite index, which tracks 18 intra-Asia routes, eased 3% to $1,453 per 40ft1. The Loadstar reported the decline on 22 October5.
It is one weekly reading, not yet a trend. Drewry said it expects rates to remain broadly stable in the coming weeks1.
The immediate cause was shorter queues. Average vessel waiting time at Jawaharlal Nehru Port fell to 24 hours in week 41, from 42 hours a week earlier1. Waiting time at Busan fell to 23 hours from 26, and at Singapore to 34 hours from 501.
Relief is concentrated on the China-India leg
The average hides a split. Shanghai to Busan fell 8% to $1,000 per 40ft. Shanghai to Singapore fell 7% to $1,9731. Shanghai to Jebel Ali stayed at $8,416 per 40ft, as Middle East disruption kept rates high1.
The wider market moved the other way. Drewry's World Container Index rose 3% to $4,485 per 40ft on 15 October, led by Asia-Europe, where rates had fallen for 13 straight weeks6.
China's Golden Week holiday gave ports time to clear cargo backlogs and improve schedule reliability, Drewry said1. Linerlytica calculated that North Asia accounted for 37% of global port congestion, still the highest of any region but down from 50% a month earlier5.
Maersk said conditions at East China ports had improved and waiting times were still falling, though strong export demand kept pressure on congested ports7. Forwarders told the Journal of Commerce that bottlenecks were easing generally. They named Shanghai as a terminal hotspot where berthing delays remain8. Demand from Greater China to North-east, South-east and South Asia was subdued, which also pulled spot rates down5.
Why the Gulf lane stays expensive
Shanghai to Jebel Ali stayed at $8,416 per 40ft1. The strain is not only congestion. Berthing delays lengthened at the UAE ports of Fujairah and Khor Fakkan, and feeder capacity was stretched after recent attacks in the Strait of Hormuz2. Iranian forces sank a Dubai-linked container vessel in the past week, FreightWaves reported, showing that some box operators are accepting the risk of transiting Hormuz9.
Fuel keeps a floor under rates. Brent crude spot was $115.22 a barrel on 20 October, down 8.4% from a week earlier4. Singapore VLSFO, the main bunker grade, was $932.00 a tonne on 21 October3. Drewry said high bunker costs and US-Iran tensions continued to push up carriers' operating costs1.
What it means for an Indian importer
Dollars are only half of the bill. The rupee was 94.47 to the dollar on 21 October, against 87.97 a year earlier10. The rupee has weakened 7.4% over that period10, so a freight rate that falls in dollars falls by less in rupees.
The index measures spot rates, not contract rates1. A buyer on a fixed contract will not see the fall until the contract is repriced or new spot bookings replace committed volumes. Surcharges are a second gap: Container News reported that shippers pulled cargo forward this year, ahead of a 1 July bunker adjustment factor reset that followed higher fuel costs11.
Capacity is being added too. OOCL launches its China-Cambodia-Thailand CCT4 service on 23 October, and MSC's China-Singapore-Indonesia Jasmine service starts on 4 November1, 5.
For a buyer, the useful move is to test the market rather than tear up contracts. The index shows one week of relief on one lane, and Drewry expects stability rather than further falls1. That supports collecting spot quotes for near-term shipments. Use them as a benchmark at the next review, and compare every quote on an all-in basis so fuel and peak-season add-ons are visible.
What to watch next
The first test is volume. Post-Golden Week restocking and festive-season imports into India could lift bookings again in late October and November. A second weekly fall would turn this into a trend; a rebound would leave it a one-week dip. The composite index is still 198% higher than a year earlier1.
The second test is capacity. Drewry counted 55 containership transits through the Suez Canal in the week to 18 October, up 120% on the same week of 2025 and the third week above 5012. Gemini Cooperation, the Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd alliance, expects to return nearly all its services to Suez routings in the first quarter of 2027. It would do so provided conditions do not change, chief executive Rolf Habben Jansen said9. Analyst Lars Jensen estimated that Suez routing had returned to roughly 30% to 35% of normal9. Shorter voyages add effective fleet capacity, raising the risk of oversupply in 2027 if demand fails to keep pace9.
For now the signal for Indian importers is narrow: one lane, one week, and a rate level still far above last year's1.