Champi weakens to 90 knots, but China port curbs threaten India-bound cargo

Typhoon Champi weakened sharply on 23 October. Curbs on shipping around the Yangtze estuary were reported a day earlier, leaving cargo bound for India exposed to delays at Shanghai and Ningbo³.

The Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) put Champi's maximum sustained winds at 90 knots, or 104 mph, in its warning on 23 October¹. That is far below the 240 km/h recorded on 21 October, when the storm was a Category 5-equivalent super typhoon². The centre was at 22.7N 123.8E, about 316 nautical miles southwest of Kadena Air Base¹. It had tracked north-northwest at 9 knots, with a minimum central pressure of 956 mb¹.

Forecast keeps the centre offshore

JTWC projects the centre to move north, staying east of Taiwan and then heading into the East China Sea¹. Winds are forecast to fall to 75 knots by 24 October and to 50 knots by 25 October. The system is expected to become extratropical on 26 October¹. BusinessLine reported on 22 October that Champi was weakening and was projected to veer away from Taiwan towards southern Japan⁴.

The forecast track does not show a landfall on the Chinese mainland¹. A Southeast Asian shipper told Platts, part of S&P Global, that the typhoon was "expected to impact the Chinese coast around Saturday and Sunday [Oct. 24-25]". The same shipper said a clearer picture would come by Monday 26 October². A China-based shipper told Platts that congestion-related delays were expected to increase, with ports potentially affected for one to two weeks². The Hong Kong Observatory said on 21 October that Champi "will move across the western North Pacific toward the seas east of Taiwan in the next couple of days"².

Restrictions already in force

The Loadstar reported on 22 October that there were reports pilotage at the Changjiang (Yangtze) estuary had been suspended³. Maritime services provider Mas Oceans had warned earlier that the weather could create "further operational challenges", The Loadstar said³. Vessel movements were restricted at some ports. Closures were expected in Zhejiang, Fujian and surrounding areas if the typhoon matched the severity then forecast, the report said, and it gave no date for pilotage to resume³.

Market participants told Platts that congestion was already causing delays of around four days at Shanghai and Ningbo². Carriers have been omitting calls to avoid congestion, tightening space on the North Asia and South-east Asia to Australia lanes².

Maersk told customers that vessel wait times at East China ports had continued to fall week on week, while warning that strong export demand was putting pressure on congested ports^3, 5. Chantal Roberts, director of Drewry Supply Chain Advisors, said one lost operating day creates a long tail. A port needs "around five weeks in a quiet period, or about two months in a peak period, to really clear that backlog", she said³.

Rates on the North Asia to Australia lane have not moved yet. Platts assessed PCR 45 at $5,300 per FEU (a standard 40-foot container) and PCR 47 at $5,200 per FEU, both stable day on day².

Why Indian buyers should care

Shanghai is the world's busiest container port, and Drewry publishes a Shanghai to Nhava Sheva rate, so disruption at these gateways can reach India-bound cargo^6, 7. Drewry's Intra-Asia Container Index fell 3% to $1,453 per 40ft in the week to 15 October, and Shanghai to Nhava Sheva dropped 11% to $3,370 per 40ft⁷.

Shanghai handled a record 5.135 million TEU (the standard 20-foot container) in September, 6.2% more than a year earlier, and its port group said operations had returned to normal⁶. Linerlytica still counted 114 vessels at anchor at Shanghai on 10 October, with another 82 on dock and over 629,000 TEU at anchor⁶. North Asia accounted for 37% of global port congestion, down from 50% a month earlier, according to Linerlytica⁷.

At the Indian end, IMD forecast on 22 October isolated to very heavy rainfall of 11 cm to 20 cm over Tamil Nadu, Puducherry and Karaikal for four more days⁴. That covers the coast around Chennai, so importers could face slower discharge and evacuation there at the same time as delays in China.

What to watch

• The 24 and 25 October window, when shippers expected coastal impact, and Monday 26 October, when a clearer picture is expected².
• Whether pilotage at the Changjiang estuary resumes, and whether Zhejiang or Fujian terminals close if the typhoon hits at forecast strength³.
• Any carrier notices of omitted calls or congestion surcharges on China to India strings. The Platts PCR assessments were unchanged day on day², and Drewry's latest index reading, for the week to 15 October, predates the typhoon threat⁷.