Drewry's World Container Index (WCI) fell 3% to $4,429 per 40ft container in its assessment for 29 October, reversing two weeks of gains1. The transpacific led the drop: Shanghai to Los Angeles fell 6% to $7,514 per 40ft and Shanghai to New York fell 5% to $9,6311. The Loadstar reported the Los Angeles move as the steepest one-week fall on the transpacific eastbound trade since June 20252.
The fall ends a late and long peak. In its 29 October update, Freightos said its Asia to US east coast rate had risen 9% to $10,565 per FEU (40ft equivalent) the week before, a high for the year5. Its Asia to US west coast rate rose 3% to $8,368, while Asia to North Europe rose 3% to $3,551 per FEU and the Mediterranean rose 8% to $4,2525. One week later, Drewry recorded falls on both US coasts1.
Why the 1 November increases look set to fail
Carriers had filed general rate increases (GRIs), the across-the-board increases lines announce to reset spot prices, of $2,000 to $3,000 per 40ft for 1 November2. Drewry does not expect them to lift the transpacific. It expects rates to decrease next week1.
Demand is the reason. Drewry cited the US National Retail Federation's forecast that US ocean import volumes will fall 11% month on month in November1. "Strong US import demand is easing," Drewry said1.
Forwarders describe a holding pattern rather than a collapse. Freight Right, a US west coast forwarder, said "pricing has settled into a steady holding pattern across both coasts"2. It expected China to US rates to stay broadly stable in the first half of November2. The index records assessed spot rates, not this week's forwarder quotes2, 1.
Asia-Europe is the more confusing signal. Shanghai to Rotterdam rose 1% to $3,686 per 40ft and Shanghai to Genoa held at $4,1511. The Loadstar said the index masked discounting by carriers trying to fill ships amid weak demand2. Linerlytica, quoted by The Loadstar, said Hapag-Lloyd was offering $3,000 to $3,200 per 40ft for early November shipments and Maersk $3,200 to $3,4002. MSC, the Ocean Alliance and Premier Alliance had cut offers to $3,400 to $3,5002. "The 1 November rate hike is effectively doomed," Linerlytica said2.
Carriers have already shifted their targets to 15 November. MSC is aiming for $4,600 per 40ft to North Europe and $5,300 to the west Mediterranean, and CMA CGM for $5,500 to the west Mediterranean2. For 1 November, MSC had targeted $4,500 on North Europe and CMA CGM $4,900 on the west Mediterranean2.
What Indian buyers are being quoted
Drewry's index tracks eight lanes, all starting from Shanghai, so it does not measure India-origin cargo1. India evidence comes from trade press reporting and carrier surcharge notices, and it points the same way.
On India to the US east coast, the Journal of Commerce reported on 23 October that spot rates had dropped by up to $3,000 per FEU in two to three weeks6. Carrier sources told the outlet that booking activity had slowed through the month6. On India to Europe, it reported on 28 October that carrier booking rates had halved from August highs7. Unchanged or only slightly lower westbound allocations kept spot asks from falling more steeply, sources told the outlet7.
That resolves a divergence. Index benchmarks for Asia-Europe were still rising in late October while Indian booking rates were already half their August level1, 7. This week the index stopped rising and carriers are discounting to fill ships2, 1.
On India to the US, surcharges carry much of the cost. Maersk's peak season surcharge, effective 23 October, is $3,400 per container to the US and Canadian west coast3. It is $5,150 to east and Gulf coast ports other than Houston for cargo from northwest India, Nepal and Bhutan, and $5,700 from India to Houston3. Those amounts sit on top of the base ocean rate, so a quote sheet that shows only the ocean rate understates the bill3.
For importers into India, costs are easing. Shanghai to Nhava Sheva was about $3,200 per 40ft in late October, down from about $3,800 a month earlier, and Shanghai to Chennai was $3,200, down from $3,9008. Drewry's intra-Asia index put Shanghai to Nhava Sheva at $3,370 per 40ft on 15 October, down 11%9. Indian buyers pay in dollars. The rupee was 95.27 to the dollar on 29 October, 8% weaker than a year earlier, so the same dollar rate costs more in rupees10.
A falling index is not cheap freight
Xeneta's market averages for 23 October put Far East to US west coast at $8,311 per FEU and Far East to US east coast at $11,52511. Those were up 342% and 335% respectively from 28 February, before the Hormuz crisis11. Far East to North Europe was $3,698, up 67%, and to the Mediterranean $4,442, up 33%11.
A 6% weekly drop therefore changes the direction of travel, not the level of cost.
Supply is loosening. Alphaliner found 24 of 46 direct Asia-Europe services, or 63% of deployed capacity, were routing through the Red Sea, with 70% on Mediterranean routes against 58% on North Europe4. Drewry counted 62 container ships through the Suez Canal last week, the highest weekly figure this year1.
Carriers are offsetting some of that with cancelled departures. Drewry counted four blanked Asia-Europe sailings for next week, down from eight this week, which it read as more effective capacity, and six on the transpacific, up from five1.
Two live risks could stall the fall. About 250 port watchmen at Los Angeles and Long Beach have voted to authorise a strike that could start on 1 November4. The terminals where they work handle about 85% of Long Beach cargo and 33% of Los Angeles cargo4. In the Gulf, only two vessels transited the Strait of Hormuz last week1.
What to watch
First, whether the $2,000 to $3,000 GRIs appear on 1 November invoices or are discounted away, as Linerlytica expects2. Second, whether MSC's $4,600 and CMA CGM's $5,500 targets survive past 15 November2. Third, Drewry's next weekly assessment and the National Retail Federation's November import figure, forecast at an 11% monthly fall1.