European wholesale gas traded at its highest level since late 2022 on October 23, after Houthi strikes on Saudi infrastructure and US diplomatic withdrawals deepened fears about winter supply1. The Dutch TTF benchmark rose 3.8% on the day to €93.40 per megawatt-hour, on course to end the week nearly 7% higher1. UK NBP rose 3.5% to 229.00 pence per therm, up 6.2% on the week1.
Brent crude was around $114 a barrel on the day, according to Investing.com data cited by Hellenic Shipping News1. The US Energy Information Administration's spot Brent price was $115.22 on October 20, down 8.4% from a week earlier6.
For Indian buyers, the number that matters is the Asian benchmark, JKM. It is around $30 per MMBtu, according to industry executives cited by The Economic Times2. That compares with an average of $20 during March to September and $12 a year earlier2. Adani Total Gas put spot LNG at nearly $30 per MMBtu, against $10-12 in February 20264.
What the benchmarks say
Europe is short. EU storage was 74.58% full on October 21, the lowest for that date since records began in 20095. That is about 75% against a seasonal norm of 86%1, with Germany at around 61%7. LNG arrivals into Europe from the Middle East are running nearly 80% below year-ago levels1.
Term contracts explain part of the gap. LNG bought on long-term, oil-linked deals would cost about $14 per MMBtu at Brent of $110, well below the $30 spot benchmark, The Economic Times reported2. India's problem is the share it cannot cover: more than a third of its LNG is bought spot2.
TTF is quoted per megawatt-hour and JKM per MMBtu, so the two figures cannot be compared without converting units. For buyers converting dollar prices into rupees, the ECB reference rate was ₹94.94 to the dollar on October 238.
Trade flows show where the cargoes went. Europe and Turkey took 76 of the 143 US LNG cargoes delivered in September7. Freight helps Europe compete: the Baltic Exchange put the US Gulf to Europe route at $21,200 a day last week, against $49,000 a day to Japan7. European buyers still face aggressive competition from Asian utilities for uncommitted Atlantic cargoes, the same report said1.
India's pass-through has started
Adani Total Gas raised CNG prices by ₹4.45 per kg on October 233. CNG now costs ₹98.47 per kg in Ahmedabad, ₹102.60 in Faridabad and ₹100 in Jalandhar, according to prices on the company website3. It was the second increase since August, when prices went up ₹4 per kg to ₹94.204.
The company blamed two things. One is global: spot LNG at nearly $30 per MMBtu4. The other is domestic: lower availability of New Well Gas and of high-pressure, high-temperature gas, after an Office Memorandum issued on October 19 reduced HPHT volumes for priority-sector consumption4. Adani Total Gas said the revision was needed to "partly absorb the increase in gas procurement costs while ensuring dependable supply to consumers"3. The company did not list every city affected or break down the increase3.
No comparable announcement from the other listed city gas distributors was found in the material reviewed for this story. Adani Total Gas is the only distributor whose increase could be confirmed.
Fertiliser is the bigger exposure by volume. It is the main driver of India's LNG demand, and because fertiliser prices are not set by the market, higher gas costs land on the government's subsidy bill2.
Who pays and what to watch
City gas distributors carry the most visible risk, because their cost depends on a mix of domestic allocation and imported spot cargoes4. Transport fleets that run on CNG face the pump price directly3. Factories that switched to gas for reliable supply are now exposed to these prices2.
Watch the Strait of Hormuz first. Vortexa recorded five confirmed LNG carrier transits last week, against a four-week average of 12, and only two were laden outbound voyages7. Kpler counted 13 Qatari loadings in October 1-13, but only four ships were broadcasting AIS signals7. Italy's Edison has received force majeure notices covering 35 Qatari cargoes, with deliveries suspended until early December7.
Watch European storage as heating demand starts. A cold winter would intensify competition for Atlantic cargoes, particularly with the EU due to end remaining Russian LNG imports from January 17. Spot cargoes that Indian importers tender for in the coming weeks will help shape what they pay in the January to March quarter.