Brent crude futures touched a five-month high of $111.99 on Tuesday, 20 October, before easing to $108.44 by 11:36 a.m. ET as traders weighed attacks on Saudi energy sites and on ships in the Gulf1. The November US crude contract, which expired that day, fell to $102.75 from a session high of $110.48, the highest since April for a nearby contract1.
The Houthis said on Monday they had hit an Aramco facility at Yanbu, the Shaybah field, and the airports in Riyadh and Abha. Saudi officials did not immediately confirm the claims, and Reuters said it could not verify them1.
Attacks, not supply, are setting the floor
UK Maritime Trade Operations logged attacks on 12 vessels in and around the Strait of Hormuz between 5 and 11 October. That is the most it has tracked there in a single week7. It also counted 254 commercial transits between 8 and 14 October, roughly 70% below weekly pre-conflict levels7. Kpler counted 131 crossings in the week to 14 October, down from 176 the week before8. It put crude flows through the strait at 12.6 million barrels a day on 13 October, below about 15 million barrels a day at the end of September8.
The tallies differ by tracker. Kpler said at least 18 vessels were reportedly attacked over two weeks1. A separate count from naval groups and security consultants found at least 23 incidents in the first two weeks of October, including at least five with engine-room damage9.
"This suggests the market is pricing in a significant risk premium, given the situation's volatility," ING analysts said in a note on Tuesday1.
Tanker earnings are the second bill
Very large crude carriers can earn in excess of $1 million a day in this market, according to Poten and Partners2. One-year timecharter rates are at a record high, more than tripling year on year, VesselsValue data show3. Brokers say a supertanker shuttling through Hormuz can fetch as much as $40 million per trip5.
Asset values have followed. Poten values a prompt VLCC resale at $235 million against $130 million for a newbuilding ordered today, an 82% premium2. In late September, a 15-year-old VLCC was worth more than a newbuilding for the first time, at $139.2 million against $138.7 million3. Ships ordered now arrive only in the 2030s3.
Kpler's reading is that war risk around the Gulf, rather than the number of ships, is driving freight4. "In a region where few owners are willing to put ships in, every VLCC hit is material," Oil Brokerage analysts said in a note on 19 October9.
Why releasing dark-fleet ships will not fix it quickly
US Energy Secretary Chris Wright said on Monday that Washington would let sanctioned tankers be sold to approved investors, refurbished and returned to compliant trade carrying non-sanctioned oil. He described the aim as shifting ships from what he called the bad-guy fleet into a good-guy fleet4.
Analysts put the realistic number of returning ships far lower. Kpler estimates only 24 of roughly 160 sanctioned VLCCs could return, Braemar says 19, and Arrow Research finds a maximum of 22 tankers of all sizes4. Oil Brokerage counts 294 sanctioned tankers free of EU or UK penalties, but 70% are more than 20 years old. That leaves 75 commercially available, including 50 supertankers5. "Sanctions relief does not equal immediately usable mainstream tanker capacity," said Rahul Kapoor of S&P Global Energy5.
INTERTANKO, the tanker owners' association, said legalising a ship does not fix its condition, ownership or insurance. "If additional tanker capacity is required, policy should encourage cargoes towards the quality, compliant fleet," it said4. Arrow expects freight upside to run through the first quarter of 20274.
What reaches an Indian buyer
India imports more than 88% of the crude it processes. Its crude and refined product import bill was $47.4 billion in the September quarter of FY27, against export earnings of $14.8 billion6. Wholesale prices for fuel and power rose 25.85% in September from a year earlier, crude petroleum and natural gas rose 57.32%, and mineral oils rose 40.02%10. The rupee was at 94.93 to the dollar on 20 October, 8% weaker than a year earlier11. Dollar-priced energy and freight therefore cost more in rupees.
Oxford Economics expects any retail pump price rise to come in November. It calls that "the last realistic window" before campaigning for early 2027 state elections12. It expects an increase about half the size of the cumulative 7.5% rise in May12.
Diesel is tighter than crude. Wholesale diesel exceeded $200 a barrel in Singapore in mid-September, and the IEA expects gasoil supply to fall short of demand in the fourth quarter of 2026, with tightness running into 20276. Bunker fuel is the same story on the water. Suppliers in Singapore are asking 12 to 15 days' notice for VLSFO, the standard low-sulphur marine fuel, and HSFO stays tight until November13. No India-specific bunker surcharge revision by container lines appeared in the sources reviewed for this article.
Falling box rates, rising fuel
Container shipping is moving the other way. Weekly container capacity through the Suez Canal averaged 753,000 TEU, the standard 20-foot container, in the first two weeks of October. That compares with 1.457 million TEU in the same period of 202314. Freight from Tuticorin to Antwerp and Rotterdam is quoted at $2,350 to $2,450 per 40-foot container, against $6,100 to $7,000 at the July peak14. Exporters report falls of $400 to $600 per container in three weeks14.
Drewry estimates that a Suez routing saves about $1 million per round voyage for a 24,000-TEU ship, or roughly $43 per slot, before extra war-risk insurance14. For shippers, war insurance can be cancelled at short notice if cargo moves on a vessel not owned by the carrier named on the bill of lading8.
Four items are worth checking in a Q4 quote: whether the war-risk surcharge is a flat fee or index-linked, which bunker index and port the bunker adjustment factor uses, who carries the risk if insurance is withdrawn mid-transit, and feeder congestion at Fujairah and Khor Fakkan15.
What to watch
Weekly attack tallies from UKMTO and Kpler, and any change to the severe threat advisory7. Any Saudi statement confirming or denying damage at Yanbu or Shaybah1. The detailed US approval rules for released tankers, which Wright has not set out5. ENGINE's weekly bunker availability, especially Singapore lead times13. And the November decision on Indian pump prices12.