Egypt has ordered a second cut in natural gas supplies to its fertilizer plants, sharpening a squeeze on urea output from a major export origin1.

Misr Fertilizers Production Company, known as MOPCO, said it had been notified of a new 33% reduction in its gas supply, according to a Reuters report on November 81. The step follows an earlier 20% cut1.

EnterpriseAM, an Egyptian business news service, reported the same day that the curtailment on fertilizer and methanol producers had been raised from 20% to 33%2. It named Abu Qir Fertilizers, MOPCO and Egyptian Fertilizers among the companies affected2.

The two reports describe the second step differently. Reuters reported a new 33% reduction, which followed an earlier 20% cut1. EnterpriseAM said the curtailment level itself rose from 20% to 33%2.

The Petroleum Ministry did not immediately respond to a request for comment, Reuters said1.

Plants trim output rather than stop

When the first cut took effect, MOPCO and Abu Qir Fertilizers and Chemical Industries said they would manage production in line with the gas available1. Abu Qir said it had contingency plans for managing inventory and rescheduling maintenance1.

Kima said its supplies were cut by 20% from noon on Sunday, November 13. It said it had implemented the cut, with its urea plant still running normally3. MOPCO was adjusting production rates to the gas it actually receives3.

Abu Qir makes prilled and granular urea, ammonium nitrate, ammonia and liquid fertilizers. It was the first Egyptian fertilizer company to list on the Egyptian Exchange5.

The gas squeeze has spread beyond fertilizers. The Oil Ministry also notified steel maker Ezz Steel of a 30% reduction in gas supply, amounting to roughly 30 million cubic feet a day, EnterpriseAM reported2.

Why Cairo is turning down the gas

Egypt burns domestic gas and, increasingly, imported LNG to generate power, but domestic output has struggled to keep pace with demand1. The war with Iran has tightened global LNG markets and pushed prices higher1.

The Petroleum Ministry budgeted about $10.1 billion for LNG in the 2026/27 financial year1. By October 6 it had spent $5.8 billion, which an analyst said put it on course to exceed the budget1. Gas demand usually rises in spring and summer1.

LNG imports reached a year-to-date high in July before easing from August1. State-run Egyptian General Petroleum Corporation also bought six cargoes of high-sulphur fuel oil for delivery in November and December1.

The International Energy Agency said LNG loadings from Qatar and the United Arab Emirates fell by 60 billion cubic metres year on year between March and October6. That cut global LNG output by about 5%, or 20 bcm6. Winter supply could run 10 to 25 bcm below last year, the agency said6. European Union storage entered the heating season at its lowest since 20137.

Prices and alternatives

Egyptian granular urea was fetching about $535 a tonne free on board in November contracts3. That is up roughly 17% from about $457 in September, Khaled Abu Al Makarem, head of the Chemicals and Fertilizers Export Council, told EnterpriseAM3. EnterpriseAM said that made Egypt the priciest origin among comparable regions, ahead of China, the rest of the Middle East, Nigeria and Algeria2.

Egypt can make about 6.5 million tonnes of urea a year and uses roughly 2.9 million tonnes at home3.

On a separate benchmark tracked by Trading Economics, urea traded flat at $432.50 a tonne on November 68. It was down 0.57% over the past month and up 14.12% from a year earlier8. That series is based on contracts for difference, not physical cargoes8.

Alternative supply will not arrive quickly. Indorama is adding a fourth urea line in Nigeria, under a $261 million construction contract awarded to Daewoo Engineering & Construction9. The line would raise installed capacity to about 5.6 million tonnes a year from about 4.2 million tonnes9. The report noted that installed capacity is not the same as output9.

Demand is the wild card

India, a large urea importer, bought 5.589 million tonnes in April to September, up 40.5% from 3.979 million tonnes a year earlier4. Imports peaked at 1.534 million tonnes in July4.

But Indian rabi sowing is running late. The area under rabi crops was down 46% at 37.56 lakh hectares as of October 30, against 69.02 lakh hectares a year earlier10. Wheat had been sown on 19,000 hectares, against 3.34 lakh hectares10.

That leaves buyers weighing tighter supply against uncertain Indian demand4, 10.

The IEA expects the tightness to last through the northern hemisphere winter6. The size of the shortfall depends on when shipments through the Strait of Hormuz recover6.