US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said on October 20 that a trade deal with India is close. Rubio, in Mumbai for talks with External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar, said only a small number of items were left1, 8. "We're very, very close. I would say we're about as close as you can be without having executed the agreement. I think there's a small number of items left to wrap up, so I think that will happen shortly," he told reporters1.
He said leaders could sign it after officials finish, and hoped to announce "some good news" soon2. The State Department readout highlighted energy, saying Rubio told Jaishankar that more US energy trade could help India diversify its supply chains2.
What is agreed and what is not
Only a first tranche is described as drafted. Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal said on October 15 that it had been finalised and was going through "the legal drafting"3. He said India would make it operational "once we get comparable advantage or competitive advantage over our peer countries"3. Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman said on October 16 that she hoped the agreement would be concluded at the earliest9. She had earlier said talks had hit a "plateau", with little room for further concessions4.
The framework both sides agreed in February 2026 would have cut the US reciprocal tariff on Indian goods from 25% to 18% in exchange for Indian concessions4. It has not yet been signed4.
Reporting points to three unresolved areas. Agriculture remains sensitive, with India unwilling to expose farmers to more foreign competition. Washington wants India to buy more US energy. And India insists its final rate must be competitive with what rivals such as Vietnam pay4, 1.
The reports reviewed here describe no agreed text on services, digital trade, rules of origin or tariff-rate quotas3, 4. Commerce Secretary Rajesh Agrawal said outstanding issues had fallen, without listing them3. US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said earlier in October that an agreement was not imminent3, 4.
The tariff stack exporters actually face
The 50% ceiling that hit most Indian goods in 2025 was two layers: a 25% reciprocal tariff and a 25% penalty for buying Russian oil10, 1. The 18% that exporters now discuss comes from the February 2026 framework, under which the US reciprocal tariff would fall from 25% to 18%4, 1. One Economic Times report says the rate was reduced to 18%1. An earlier Economic Times analysis says the framework had not yet been finalised, and that its value became unclear once the courts struck down the tariff regime it was tied to4.
In February 2026, the US Supreme Court ruled in Learning Resources, Inc. v. Trump that the International Emergency Economic Powers Act does not authorise tariffs. About $166 billion collected from more than 330,000 businesses had to be refunded5.
In June 2026, the USTR announced Section 301 tariffs of 10% or 12.5% on goods made with forced labour, at 10% for some countries and 12.5% for 45 others5. A 10% stopgap under Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974 was to run until July 24, 2026. The Court of International Trade later found it illegal, and that case is on appeal5.
Sector duties sit on top. Section 232 duties are 50% on articles made entirely or almost entirely of steel, aluminium or copper, and 25% on derivative metal articles. Cars face 25%, branded or patented pharmaceuticals 100% unless the maker is building US plants, and a narrow set of advanced chips 25%5. In February 2026, the Commerce Department also announced duties on solar cells and panels from India, Indonesia and Laos to offset subsidies5.
Then there is the Russian oil layer. The Lindsey O. Graham Sanctioning Russia and Iran Act became law on September 186. It allows duties of up to 100% on goods from the five largest importers of Russian crude and gas, and up to 500% on Russian goods11, 6. Trump waived those duties on October 16 under Section 115 of the Act, certifying to Congress that the waiver served the US national interest6, 11.
Rubio said the president wanted the 60-day period to study the effects11. GTRI says the waiver has no fixed expiry date but can be withdrawn7. The decision does not repeal the law6.
The reports reviewed here do not give India's rate under that schedule. Exporters should check the duty on their own tariff lines before pricing a shipment.
What a signed deal would change
A signed deal would put a negotiated rate into a text both sides have agreed, instead of leaving the rate to executive action. Tariff stability is what Indian officials say they are seeking3. A deal would also settle the comparison with Vietnam that India has made a condition3, 4.
The India-New Zealand pact shows how much detail sits between signature and relief. It took effect on October 20. New Zealand gave Indian goods duty-free access across all tariff lines from day one, the first time India has won that at the start of an FTA12. GTRI notes that 58.3% of New Zealand's tariff lines were already duty-free, so the extra gain is smaller than the headline13. India opened about 70% of its tariff lines and kept dairy, sugar and edible oils out. Apples, kiwifruit and Manuka honey come in through tariff-rate quotas, with minimum import prices and safeguards12, 13.
New Zealand signed on April 27 and the pact applied from October 2013. Goyal says the India-EU agreement will be signed in December and enter into force in February or March next year3. India and Canada aim to close their CEPA by the end of 2026, with the next round in New Delhi in early November14. On the US track, no signature date, entry-into-force date or phase-in schedule has been announced.
The US was India's largest merchandise export destination in April to September, taking $50.81 billion, up from $45.73 billion a year earlier15. USTR puts total US goods imports from India at $103.8 billion in 202516.
What to watch
A signing date and venue. Rubio raised the prospect of leaders signing but named neither2.
The text. No joint statement or chapter list has been published in the reporting reviewed here. Agriculture is the sticking point to watch4.
USTR notices. Agrawal said the deal has to be signed while the US tariff structure is being formalised under Section 3013.