The rulebook for a 500% duty on Russian goods is now in the Federal Register. So is the rulebook for a 100% duty on goods from the biggest buyers of Russian oil and gas. Both are switched off, and no date is set for switching them back on1.
Executive Order 14436 was signed on 16 October and published in the Federal Register on 21 October. It implements the Lindsey O. Graham Sanctioning Russia and Iran Act of 20261. The order spells out three duty tracks, then waives every one of them. The waiver stays in force until the president or the secretary of state determines that "further action is appropriate"1.
Three duty tracks, and the date that matters
| Goods covered | Extra duty | What switches it on |
|---|---|---|
| Goods from Russia | 500% ad valorem | Waived for now1 |
| Goods from the largest 5 importers of Russian crude oil and gas | 100% ad valorem | Waived for now. The trigger is that the country "knowingly makes new purchases" of Russian crude or gas on or after 18 October 20261 |
| Goods from the top 5 facilitators of Russian oil sanctions evasion | 100% ad valorem | Waived for now1 |
The second track is the one to watch. India must be inside the largest five, and there must be a new purchase of Russian crude or gas on or after 18 October 20261.
The order also settles stacking. The increases apply "in addition to any other duty, fee, tax, exaction, or charge applicable with respect to the good". It names title VII of the Tariff Act of 1930, sections 122, 201 and 301 of the Trade Act of 1974, and section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act of 19621.
The waiver has no end date
Secretary of State Marco Rubio described the arrangement differently. He said Trump wanted to use a 60-day window to assess the economic implications of imposing the measures2. That is an official description of intent. It is not in the order, which sets no end date or review deadline for the waiver1.
GTRI noted the same gap on 17 October: the waiver has no fixed expiry date, but Washington can withdraw it3.
The mechanism is a certification to Congress. Under section 115 of the Act, the president must certify that a waiver is in the US national interest and give a report explaining the basis1, 4. The order states that the certification has been submitted.
No list and no names
The order names no country as a top-five buyer or facilitator. Instead it tells the US Trade Representative to monitor purchases and to "report to the President on which countries are among the top 5 such facilitators"1. That reporting runs to the president, not to a register. The order does not name any top-five country or publish a list1.
India's exposure rests on how the Act defines the top five. The volume test uses the 12 months before enactment. The purchase test runs from 30 days after enactment, a date the order fixes at 18 October 20264, 1. Countries are to be reassessed every 180 days4.
Newspapers have treated India as a member of the group. ET wrote that the law would have exposed Indian goods to tariffs of up to 100% because India is one of the five largest importers of Russian oil5. BusinessLine wrote that the tariffs would apply to India and China, the two largest buyers of Russian oil6. Those are descriptions, not designations.
What the waiver does not touch
Section 4(b) leaves earlier Russia measures intact. It covers the national emergency continued on 24 March 2026 over "specified harmful foreign activities of the Government of the Russian Federation"1. Nothing in the order affects those sanctions, "including with respect to all persons sanctioned under any such Executive Order"1.
Each duty is also subject to the exceptions set out in section 114 of the Act1. As summarised by Wikipedia, these cover humanitarian purposes, intelligence and law enforcement, and international obligations4. They also cover civilian nuclear cooperation, low-enriched uranium for reactors, official government business and non-Russian oil transiting Russian territory4. The rest cover US persons operating under a Treasury general licence, good-faith wind-down by non-Russian parties in the first 270 days, vessel and crew safety, and space launches4.
The order does not touch the Iran Sanctions Act, which the same law extended by five years to 20314.
The base rate is still missing
A total duty cannot be calculated yet, because the base tariff it would stack on is unsettled. India and the US agreed a February framework that would cut the reciprocal tariff from 25% to 18%. It has not been signed, and court challenges undermined the reciprocal tariffs it was built on7. Trade expert Ajay Srivastava said: "Once that tariff regime was struck down, the value of the US offer became unclear"7.
The 100% add-on is charged on the goods' value, on top of whatever the shipment already pays1. Without a settled base, exporters cannot price a worst case.
Relief, and what it costs
FIEO cited textiles, leather, gems and jewellery, and engineering goods as vulnerable, employment-intensive export sectors8. Gem and jewellery exports rose 13% to $14.30 billion in the first half of this fiscal year, and the US remains the largest market6.
Refiners face the other side. India imports more than 88% of its crude, and the crude and product import bill was $47.4 billion in the September quarter against $14.8 billion of export earnings9. Russia's share of India's oil imports fell from 51% in July to 44% in August10. Rubio said on 20 October that India had made "substantial progress" in diversifying11.
Industry groups welcomed the pause without treating it as settled. FICCI secretary general Anant Swarup said "a waiver that can be modified or withdrawn at short notice does not provide the durable predictability that businesses need for long-term planning"8. FIEO director general Ajay Sahai said exporters, especially MSMEs, need long-term tariff predictability8.