Cyclone Murasu is forecast to form over the Bay of Bengal by Monday. It would arrive days after very severe cyclone Arnab shut east-coast ports and drove a bulker ashore in Andhra Pradesh1, 3.
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) said the depression over the south-east Bay of Bengal is strengthening. It should become a cyclone by Monday1. Its projected track takes the storm east of Chennai around midnight on Sunday1.
On 31 October the depression was centred about 1,140 km east-south-east of Chennai and 1,200 km south-east of Machilipatnam, the weather office said1. Sea-surface temperatures of 29 to 30°C and moderate to low vertical wind shear were helping it intensify1.
Isolated extremely heavy rainfall is forecast over coastal Andhra Pradesh and Yanam on Monday. Squally winds of 50 to 60 km/hr, gusting to 70 km/hr, are likely on Tuesday1. Isolated heavy rain is also likely over Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, Karaikal and Telangana on Monday and Tuesday1.
Fishermen in Andhra Pradesh, still recovering from Arnab, were advised to stay off the sea until 4 November, according to a summary of the season4.
Ports are still clearing Arnab's cargo
Arnab made landfall near Narasapuram on 28 October4. Vessel handling was suspended or restricted at several east-coast ports from 26 October. Visakhapatnam stopped all operations until further notice2.
Kuehne+Nagel told customers that Visakhapatnam, Gangavaram and Krishnapatnam had all received cyclone or storm warnings2. A carrier official said Visakhapatnam terminals were "slowly getting back to business, in tandem with government guidelines and updates"2.
Visakhapatnam handled 302,926 TEU in the year to September, down from 308,861 TEU a year earlier, according to data collected by The Loadstar2. The port is a feeder gateway for Maersk's east-coast coverage, especially cargo moving in and out of Kolkata2.
Colombo port was already reporting an average vessel waiting time of two days because of transhipment congestion and missed feeder connections, Kuehne+Nagel said2.
A bulker aground and trains diverted
The Marshall Islands-flagged bulker Sigma Pearl, 32,688 dwt, left Visakhapatnam after unloading sulfur and was heading for Singapore when it lost propulsion3. The 180-metre ship, built in 2010, drifted and was driven aground by wind and surf3. Reports said the crew was uninjured. Authorities planned to survey the vessel and start salvage planning once the weather eased3.
In Odisha's Ganjam district, the swollen Bahuda river crossed danger marks at two railway bridges. East Coast Railway cancelled 24 trains and diverted 22. South Coast Railway cancelled 12 and diverted eight5. In total on the Howrah-Chennai route, 36 trains were cancelled, 30 diverted and eight regulated or rescheduled5. Other reports put the wider cancellations at more than 70 trains3. The railway said about 550 mm of rain in Ganjam district fed the river rise5.
Air travel was also hit, with 27 flights cancelled at the international airport3.
What to watch
The next IMD bulletin will settle whether Murasu intensifies further and where it crosses. Port notices from Visakhapatnam, Gangavaram, Kakinada, Krishnapatnam, Chennai and Kattupalli will show whether pilotage and berths close again.
The salvage survey of the Sigma Pearl matters for cargo owners waiting to load or with other bulk linked to the vessel3. Arnab damaged crops across more than 325,000 hectares in Andhra Pradesh, according to a summary of the season. That figure will feed into procurement and storage decisions as the north-east monsoon continues4.