Very severe cyclone Arnab is forecast to cross the Andhra Pradesh and Yanam coast on the morning of 28 October1. IMD expects the highest storm surge near Kakinada and Yanam, at 1.0 to 1.5 m above astronomical tide, enough to flood low-lying areas at landfall1. Landfall winds are forecast at 115 to 125 km/h, with gusts to 140 km/h2.
The confirmed operational disruption so far is in the air. Air India said weather linked to Arnab may affect flights to and from Visakhapatnam and Vijayawada on 27 October, and asked passengers to allow extra time to reach airports2. Andhra Pradesh has readied 1,763 cyclone shelters, 2,907 control rooms and 3,185 nodal officers, and is moving people out of 2,107 Swarna Grama and Swarna Ward units2. NDRF and SDRF teams are posted in 11 high-risk districts2.
No port has confirmed a shutdown yet
For cargo, the key question is what has actually been suspended, and that is not yet public. Visakhapatnam Port Authority's announcements page showed no cyclone-related circular when viewed on 27 October3. Published notices of berthing, pilotage or cargo suspension from the Kakinada, Gangavaram and Krishnapatnam operators were not available at the time of writing. That is not the same as normal operations. It means buyers should plan for a two to four day stoppage without telling suppliers that one has been ordered.
The ports sit in different parts of the risk zone. Visakhapatnam is Andhra Pradesh's only major port and the largest on the east coast, with 24 berths handling iron ore, steel products, general cargo, coal and crude oil5. Gangavaram offers 21 m depth for cape-size ships of up to 200,000 DWT and was built partly to feed the Vizag Steel plant6. Kakinada, 170 km south of Vizag, is a cluster of an anchorage port, a deep-water port, a fishing harbour and a ship-breaking yard7. Its deep-water channel is 12 m and takes ships up to 50,000 DWT, and rice exports were a big part of its older trade7. Krishnapatnam, 190 km north of Chennai, is coal-led and runs a container terminal of 12 lakh containers a year8.
Coal has the least slack
Coal is where a stoppage bites fastest. Of 176 domestic coal-based power plants, 85 held critical stocks, meaning below 25% of normative requirement, on 25 October4. Their combined stock fell to 17.67 mt from 18 mt on 16 October, and from 35.13 mt at the end of July4. Seven of the country's 15 imported coal-based plants were also critical, with stocks of 2.26 mt4.
ICRA's Ankit Jain said stocks were around six days' requirement on 10 October, against a normative 19 to 20 days4. Power demand rose 23.4% year on year in the first 10 days of October, while domestic coal output fell 3.2% in the first five months of FY274. A two to four day halt in berthing at ports feeding the coastal belt would land on a buffer that is already thin4. Plants take coal on a daily or ongoing basis, so late rakes show up quickly in stock cover4.
Alternates, and the paperwork to open now
IMD's landfall band runs from Bapatla to Visakhapatnam2. South of that band, Krishnapatnam sits 190 km north of Chennai Port8. Kamarajar, also called Ennore, is 18 km north of Chennai Port and was designed mainly around thermal coal, with a container terminal added later9. Those are the obvious relief valves for diverted bulk and boxes. Coastal Andhra Pradesh, however, stays under warnings of isolated extremely heavy rain1, so road and rail legs inland may slip even where a port stays open.
Buyers should ask carriers for written confirmation of any port omission before assuming a booking will discharge as planned. Check free time and detention and demurrage terms on boxes already at or near berth. Ask whether delivery at an alternate port changes the bill of lading terms. Note the notice-of-claim window in each contract, and tell cargo insurers early if goods are held, damaged or diverted, because weather events usually require prompt notice.