The India Meteorological Department forecasts the Bay of Bengal depression to become Cyclone Arnab, a very severe cyclonic storm1. It should cross the Andhra Pradesh coast between Bapatla and Visakhapatnam, including Yanam, on the forenoon of 28 October1. Maximum sustained winds at landfall are forecast at 115 to 125 km/h, gusting to 140 km/h1.

At 5.30 am on Sunday the depression lay 880 km east-southeast of Visakhapatnam and 980 km east-southeast of Kakinada1. It was 1,080 km east of Machilipatnam, 1,150 km east of Bapatla and 440 km north-northwest of Sri Vijaya Puram1. It had slowed to 5 km/hr and had virtually stalled over the south-east Bay of Bengal1.

IMD has issued an orange cyclone alert for Andhra Pradesh and the adjoining south Odisha coast5. It forecasts squally weather, gale-force winds and rough to very rough seas over the western and central Bay from Tuesday1.

Sea-surface temperatures along the forecast track are about 30 degrees Celsius1. The US Joint Typhoon Warning Center says conditions are favourable for rapid intensification, so the track and strength can still change1. Isolated extremely heavy rain, above 20 cm, is forecast for Tamil Nadu, Puducherry and Karaikal, and Kerala and Mahe, over the next two days1.

Nine ports already on warning

Cyclone warning signals have been hoisted at nine ports in Tamil Nadu and Puducherry, according to an ANI report carried by Hindustan Times2. Those named include Chennai, Nagapattinam, Cuddalore, Karaikal, Pamban and Thoothukudi2.

On the Andhra coast, Visakhapatnam Port Authority had not posted a cyclone circular on its website by Sunday afternoon3. Its announcements page listed tender and CCTV notices3.

What is exposed

Visakhapatnam, the largest port on India's east coast, handled 82.62 million tonnes of cargo in 2024-256, 3. It is targeting 90 million tonnes in 2025-263. Its main cargoes are iron ore, manganese ore, steel products, general cargo, coal and crude oil6. The adjoining Gangavaram port has a draft of 21 metres and takes cape size vessels of up to 200,000 DWT7.

Kakinada, about 170 km south of Visakhapatnam, combines an anchorage port, a deep-water port, a fishing harbour and a ship-breaking yard8. Rice formed a significant part of its trade in the colonial period8.

Krishnapatnam, about 190 km north of Chennai, has 18 metres of draft and 75 million tonnes of capacity9. Coal is its primary commodity9.

That mix points to imported coal for power and steel as the most exposed inbound flow, and rice, seafood and breakbulk as the most exposed exports6, 8, 9.

Rail and road links are also exposed. When Cyclone Michaung crossed near Bapatla in December 2023, Southern Railway and East Coast Railway re-directed and cancelled several trains10. NH16 is the coastal corridor serving both Visakhapatnam and Krishnapatnam6, 9.

What a delay costs

Port time is priced into voyage charters. Demurrage is what a charterer pays a shipowner when loading or unloading runs past the laytime allowed in the contract11. Laytime starts from the Notice of Readiness11. In container shipping, the equivalent is container demurrage, charged when equipment is held beyond the period allowed11.

A vessel that cannot berth either waits at anchorage, which consumes laytime, or is rolled to a later sailing11. Diverting to Chennai or Krishnapatnam adds a road or rail leg on the same corridor6, 9.

Coal arrivals matter more than usual. On 19 October, 96 of India's 191 coal-fired power stations held less than three days of fuel4. Total stocks at power stations had fallen about 5% since the start of the month, according to Central Electricity Authority data reported by The Economic Times4.

What to check on Monday

  • IMD's bulletins, and whether the orange alert for the Andhra coast is escalated5.
  • Notices from Visakhapatnam Port Authority, Kakinada Seaports, Adani's Krishnapatnam port, Chennai Port Authority and the Tamil Nadu Maritime Board3, 2.
  • Line advisories on port omissions, cargo cut-offs and rollovers.
  • East Coast Railway and South Central Railway cancellations and rake availability10.
  • Your contract's laytime, force majeure and port-closure wording, and your cargo insurer's notice deadline11.