Coal stocks at 96 of India's 191 power plants fall below three days

India's coal-fired power stations are entering winter with unusually thin fuel cover. Central Electricity Authority data show 96 of the country's 191 coal plants held less than three days of coal on 19 October, up from 60 in mid-September¹. Total stocks at power stations have fallen about 5% since 1 October¹.

Demand is the reason. Daily peak demand has run about 45 GW to 50 GW higher than a year earlier, partly because a weak monsoon cut hydro output and pushed more load onto thermal plants¹. In September, coal-fired generation rose 13.3% from a year earlier while hydropower fell 20%, and the gap between electricity demand and supply widened to 560 million kWh, the highest since August 2023¹.

The squeeze reaches the factory floor in Gujarat

Gujarat shows what the national data means in practice. The state met an all-time high peak demand of 29,822 MW on 16 October, up 36.6% from 21,822 MW a year earlier, and daily consumption rose 27% to 574 million units².

Industries in parts of the state have been asked to stay off the grid in the evening, when solar output falls to zero. "The government has issued an advisory asking industries to voluntarily not use power between 5 p.m. to 11 p.m.," Ajit Shah, president of the Sanand Industries Association, told BusinessLine². Plants with continuous manufacturing processes are exempt².

Staggered cuts were compulsory at first and were then made optional, with districts taking turns on a weekly roster, according to the report². Industrialists in Morbi, the ceramics hub, said the outages will hurt smaller MSME units, or micro, small and medium enterprises².

Gujarat has 79,508 MW of installed capacity, but about 53,500 MW of it is renewable, including roughly 36,000 MW of solar and 17,000 MW of wind². That leaves the evening peak to thermal plants and short-term purchases. The state has arranged 2,990 MW of short-term power for October, 1,740 MW for November and 1,335 MW for December².

Where the delivery risk sits

The CEA figures are national and, as reported, do not break the coal shortfall down by state¹. Industrial curtailment advisories have been documented in Gujarat². Other states are also under strain: the Times of India reported on 12 October that Tamil Nadu's distribution company signed an agreement for its costliest ever power purchase amid an October shortage³.

Gujarat's government blamed its demand surge on high temperatures despite a weak monsoon, irrigation demand of about 12,000 MW a day, festive-season factory activity and lower hydro and wind output².

For buyers, exposure follows the process as much as the state. Energy-intensive industries such as steel, aluminium and cement are among the largest sources of industrial electricity demand⁴. Plants that run continuous processes, from aluminium smelters and cement kilns to glass and ceramic furnaces, cannot easily shift load to the afternoon.

A second source of risk is the connection itself. The CEA's Manual on Transmission Planning Criteria, 2026, released on 14 October, sets a standard for large consumers⁵. It says steel plants, refineries, metro rail systems, hospitals and data centres should plan grid connections with 100% redundancy and, where possible, two separate sources of supply⁵. The manual notes that extra feeders, substations, transformers and switchgear may require fresh investment⁵.

The import question, and why freight matters

India has decided not to mandate coal imports for power plants, the Times of India reported on 19 October, because international prices are high and the rupee is weak³. Policy attention is instead on raising domestic coal production and moving it faster³. That fits the coal ministry's statement last week that it had ramped up supplies to power stations, even as stocks kept falling¹.

Rail capacity is the number to watch. Gujarat said the Union coal ministry has assured 10 to 11 rakes, or goods trains, a day until November, rising to 13 to 14 a day after that². Utilities that choose to import anyway still face two costs. The first is the exchange rate: the rupee traded at 94.93 to the dollar on 20 October, about 8% weaker than a year earlier⁶. The second is freight. The Baltic Dry Index, which tracks rates for ships carrying dry bulk cargoes, rose about 1.9% to 2,593 points on 20 October⁷. The capesize index, for 150,000-ton cargoes including coal and iron ore, climbed 4.7% to 3,522 points⁷. The panamax index, for 60,000 to 70,000 tons of coal or grain, fell 1.7% to 2,247 points⁷.

The squeeze is not confined to power stations. The Indian Newsprint Manufacturers' Association has asked the prime minister to intervene over coal supply. It said shortages have forced members to buy in the expensive open market, and that over 95% of coal supplies are diverted to the power sector, the Times of India reported on 20 October³.

Using imported coal also sits oddly beside another problem: India curtails cheap solar in the afternoon because the grid cannot move or store it. Mint reported, citing the think tank Ember, that transmission constraints cost 300 GWh of clean generation in the first quarter of 2026⁸. About 40 GW of power purchase and sale agreements remain unsigned⁸. India has 8.6 GWh of battery storage⁸. Peak demand hit a record 270.8 GW on 21 May, and the power ministry projects 300 GW by FY28⁸.

What to do now

Start with a supplier map. Ask every critical supplier in Gujarat, and in any state that issues an evening advisory, for its discom's current order and whether its process is exempt². Two questions matter: what happens to output if you lose four hours a night, and what do you switch on instead?

Then read the contract. Check whether it passes through power-cost changes, and whether a state advisory counts as an excused delay. That clause decides who pays for the winter gap.

Then set delivery buffers for energy-intensive inputs, and price the pass-through before it reaches the invoice. Peak power purchases and diesel gensets feed straight into conversion costs for steel, aluminium, cement, glass and paper.

Watch three numbers: the CEA's daily count of plants below three days of stock, rake counts into Gujarat and other coal-hungry states, and any pick-up in seaborne coal buying. The stress is physical before it is financial.