Singapore's marine fuel market is tightening as prices climb, and the cost reaches Indian importers and exporters through fuel surcharges and all-in ocean rates2, 1.
Ship & Bunker assessed Singapore VLSFO, the 0.5% sulphur marine fuel5, at $990.00 a tonne on 27 October, with HSFO at $894.50 and LSMGO at $1,342.001. VLSFO was $889.50 on 9 October6. ENGINE put the weekly gain for all three grades at $19 to $44/mt, with LSMGO up the most, while front-month ICE Brent futures rallied $6.51/bbl to $114.97/bbl7.
Crude was not the main driver. Brent spot fell to $115.22/bbl on 20 October from $130.03/bbl on 9 October8, while Singapore VLSFO rose over those weeks6. The push is coming from availability.
A shortage that has run for a month
ENGINE's 27 October East of Suez outlook said Singapore availability remains tight, with constrained fuel oil inventories and reduced supply flows. VLSFO lead times start at about 13 days at the earliest and some suppliers recommend more than three weeks, against 12 to 15 days the week before. HSFO needs about 10 days but stretches to three weeks, and LSMGO 9 to 11 days2.
Stocks confirm the strain. Enterprise Singapore data show residual fuel oil stocks averaged 18.52 million bbl in October so far, 6% lower than September despite a 9% rise in net fuel oil imports3. ENGINE's read of the same data put Singapore VLSFO lead times at 14 to 21 days on 26 October, from 11 to 18 days a week earlier3.
The stress runs across East of Suez. Port Klang is constrained across grades, bunkering at Zhoushan has been suspended since last week because of Typhoon Champi, and Tianjin is short of all three grades2. VLSFO stocks at ten Japanese ports, including Tokyo, Chiba, Kawasaki, Nagoya and Kobe, are nearly depleted and term slots have been cancelled2. At South Korea's southern ports, lead times lengthened to 5 to 8 days. Busan's VLSFO price rose about $100/mt from the start of October to about $1,069/mt, a Korean trader told ENGINE2.
Prices differ sharply by port. Singapore VLSFO at $990.00/mt compares with $764.00/mt in Rotterdam and $987.00/mt in Fujairah, while Rotterdam's conventional VLSFO jumped $30/mt week on week1, 9. In Singapore, the premium of VLSFO over HSFO, the scrubber spread, stood at $96.00/mt on 27 October, up $17.50 on the day6, 5.
How the fuel line reaches a buyer
Fuel is recovered either inside an all-in rate or through a bunker adjustment factor (BAF), a periodic surcharge tied to a published fuel price. Carriers reset BAFs on schedules. Fuel has already moved them this year: shippers front-loaded cargo before a 1 July reset, itself a product of fuel costs pushed up by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz10.
Buyers can check a BAF claim with three inputs. Extra fuel cost equals the tonnes burned on the voyage multiplied by the increase per tonne. Per box, divide by the number of containers the ship carries, counting a 40ft box as two TEU. Ask the carrier for the grade and port in its index, its assumed tonnes per voyage and its assumed FEU on board.
One input is about to change. Platts has proposed revising bunker consumption for tanker and dry bulk assessments from 4 January 2027. The revision covers routes involving Emission Control Area distances, including the Mediterranean, which became an ECA on 1 May 20254.
Which port a service uses matters at these spreads. A carrier that can lift fuel in Rotterdam rather than Singapore faces a much lower assessment for the same tonne1.
Timing matters too. Spot rates from India to the US east coast fell by up to $3,000 per FEU over two to three weeks to 23 October11. A fuel line that rises while the ocean rate falls leaves less relief than the headline rate suggests.
Carrier notices covering India published in the week to 27 October dealt with peak season surcharges and inland fuel fees, not new ocean bunker surcharges. Maersk set peak season surcharges from India, the Middle East and nearby origins to the US and Canada from 23 October. The charge is $3,400 per container to the west coast and $5,150 to $5,700 to the east and Gulf coasts12. Hapag-Lloyd revised its Italy inland fuel floater from 2 November, and from 21 November for FMC-regulated shipments13. Buyers should expect bunker charges to arrive separately, on the carrier's timetable.
Fuel quality is the other bill
Tight supply raises the risk that what arrives in the tank is not what was ordered. Testing firm CM Technologies issued an advisory after off-specification reports at Antwerp, Rotterdam, Houston, Singapore, Hong Kong and Piraeus over the past six months14. The problems covered excessive catalytic fines, poor stability, high sediment and low flash point14. VPS issued 29 bunker alerts in the first seven months of 2026, with catalytic fines and stability problems making up 72% of them. West P&I data covering samples tested from April to September put heavy fuel oil off-specification rates at 46.2% in Antwerp and 35.5% in Rotterdam. Gard handled more than 70 bunker-related claims between January and May, up 50% on a year earlier, and some vessels were disabled or needed towage14.
What to fix before 2027 contracts
Name the index, port and grade. Singapore VLSFO is the usual East of Suez benchmark, but Rotterdam is assessed far lower, so a clause without a named port can be repriced against the wrong market1.
Ask when the surcharge is recalculated, and whether the carrier's consumption factor changes on 4 January 20274.
Choose the structure knowingly. An all-in rate passes fuel risk to the carrier but hides the premium you pay for it. Base plus BAF keeps the risk with you. Either way, get the fuel component in writing.
Keep the quality clause. Sampling, testing and a clear claims route belong in the contract, given the level of off-specification fuel in the market14.
What to watch: ENGINE said on 20 October that HSFO availability was expected to remain tight until November, and Japanese refiners had not set supply policy for November onwards15. Zhoushan operations could resume on 28 October if the weather improves2. Weather may also interrupt bunkering at Busan and Ulsan on 28 October, 30 to 31 October and 1 to 4 November2.