Spot container rates from Asia to Europe rose again in the week to 23 October, even as ships keep returning to the Suez Canal and adding capacity. Xeneta's market average for Far East to North Europe reached $3,698 per FEU, the standard 40-foot container, up 6.8% on the week. Far East to the Mediterranean rose 5.8% to $4,442 per FEU1.
The move ends a slide that started in July. Peter Sand, Xeneta's chief analyst, said spot rates "reached an invisible floor last week" before turning up, after a steady decline since July1. Against 28 February, before the Hormuz crisis, the two lanes are still up 67% and 33%1.
Drewry's World Container Index, a separate benchmark, rose 2% to $4,585 per 40ft in its 22 October reading, a second weekly gain and the highest in 15 weeks. Shanghai to Rotterdam rose 3% to $3,632 and Shanghai to Genoa 5% to $4,1522. Seatrade Maritime reported on 26 October that the downward trend on Asia to Europe had ended with another rise as demand held up6.
Demand beats returning capacity
Returning Suez capacity should push rates down, and Xeneta calls the result a conundrum. Its answer is demand: volumes from the Far East to Europe rose 12.2% in the first seven months of the year1.
Carriers are also managing supply. Drewry counted eight blank sailings, cancelled departures, announced for the week ahead, up from two the previous week2. MSC set freight all kinds rates from 1 November of $4,500 per 40ft to North Europe, $5,000 to west Mediterranean and $5,100 to east Mediterranean. CMA CGM is seeking $4,900 and $5,200 for the two Mediterranean ranges7.
Not everyone expects the increase to last. Linerlytica predicted the new November pricing will likely fail, and European forwarders told The Loadstar they received discounted offers in the first half of October7. Drewry expects rates to rise slightly next week on tight capacity2.
What Indian exporters are paying
The published indices are China-origin. The 1 November rate announcements reviewed cover Asia load ports, not Indian Subcontinent ones7.
India-specific quotes point the other way. Ramu Shanmugam of the Tiruppur Exporters' Association told BusinessLine that Tuticorin to Antwerp and Rotterdam was quoted at $2,350 to $2,450 per 40ft on 20 October. That compares with $6,100 to $7,000 at the July peak. He said rates to Europe and the UK had fallen $400 to $600 per container in three weeks and expected more softening through November3.
His quotes are for an India-origin lane that neither Xeneta nor Drewry tracks in the data above, so they are not directly comparable with the Far East averages1, 2, 3.
Transit times have shortened with the Suez return. Chennai to Rotterdam takes 23 to 24 days, against 34 to 36 days via the Cape of Good Hope, Shanmugam said. Cargo to the US coasts has not seen the same benefit, he added3.
What this means for 2027 contracts
Negotiations on 2027 long-term contracts are already under way, according to Freightos, which said recent general rate increases were aimed at putting pressure on rates as those talks open. Freightos added that some forwarders doubt the increases will stick8.
The Suez return is now substantial. Alphaliner found 63% of Far East to Europe capacity back on the Red Sea route, across 24 of 46 direct services4. Lloyd's List Intelligence counted 2.19m TEU through the canal in September, the most since the Houthi campaign began9. Some 55 containerships transited in the week to 18 October, up 120% on a year earlier10. Maersk expects all its services back on the route by March 20275.
The saving is real but smaller than it looks. Drewry puts a Suez round voyage at 97 days against 124 days via the Cape for the same loop. That saves about $1m per round voyage for a 24,000 TEU ship, or roughly $43 per slot, before additional war-risk insurance costs3.
On the demand side, Indian apparel exporter Gokaldas expects Europe to reach 25% to 30% of its exports in three to five years, from about 15% now11. It is positioning for an India-EU trade deal that is expected to be signed by the end of this year and implemented next year12.
What to watch
The first test is the first fortnight of November, when the new FAK levels take effect. Linerlytica expects them to fail7.
The second is the pace of Suez re-routing. Every service that returns shortens the round voyage and frees effective capacity, and Maersk's March 2027 target is only five months away5.
The third is security. The return is happening while Saudi-Houthi fighting widens13, and Freightos expects the Suez recovery to be completed in the first quarter only if geopolitics allow8. Attacks around the Strait of Hormuz have increased in recent weeks, a separate risk for cargo moving through the Gulf8.